Local Gunstore Inventory Discussion

[ronsatspokane]

And you sound like your taking your own medicine. Way to be proactive there Rambo.

Has anyone sat down and written out a statement to the any of the manufacturers that explains the specific problem? These are public companies with typical MBA's at the helm. They need to have it put into their own language.

- Has anyone performed a cost\benefit analysis of providing components only?
- What ratio would satisfy or reduce the demand curve?
- Has anyone performed a profit\ratio study to determine what the market would bear in a cost analysis?
- Is it sustainable?
- Can capacity be created in manufacturing?
- Is there achievable goodwill and community standing in publicly acknowledging and addressing shortfalls?
- Is there an equitable return on investment by promoting competitive shooting sports? Will new shooters be apt to become "volume" shooters if there is availability to use their "shiny new toys"?
- How much "marketability" is lost by not addressing shortfalls? Will our traditional customers poorly review emerging products unfavorably from spite? Are new or improved products going to be ignored. If you need evidence of this just ask Remington, or Bushmaster, or Winchester, or...

These companies may not have addressed these issues because they are not aware of secondary markets (That just happen to be PRIMARY MARKETS to a portion of their customers). They are just trying to keep their heads above water and their board of directors is trying to take profit as quickly as possible before the bubble bursts. It doesn't have to burst. There is a sustainable path forward.

Fair analysis is necessary to determine that new path forward. I cannot look at the company's books or make a guess at what they have determined or where they plan to capitalize in the future. CEO's make the case to the board. They are too busy to think about us unless we notify them. They can't make a sales package to the board and investors without defining the problem and a potential solution.

The current scenario is not pretty. Many shooting sports are going to be adversely affected by shortages. Standards and rules will need to be altered to make the sport accessible - the days of 250+ round matches are dwindling. I would like to see sustainable competitive shooting - it ain't going to happen at benchrest, PRS, FPS, F-class, or many other disciplines with factory ammo.

What I can do is try to send a politely worded and succinct memo and suggestions instead of a rant.

Kind of like you...

It's odd to see how in this post apocalyptic covid world that the sport of arm chair CEO has become as popular as the sport of arm chair quarterback once was. It is the height of arrogance to assume that you know more than the folks managing these companies do. Perhaps you have missed the video's and the news reports regarding the massive increases in demand across the product spectrum. Perhaps you have not visited the stores to see that the ammo are shelves empty. And you want one part of that ammo when the worlds supply chain can't even keep the base product on the shelves? Perhaps you could personally provide the capital, equipment, labor, training and time for them to expand their production capabilities. Your words indicate that it would only require a snap of your fingers. So snap those fingers and this nightmare will be over.

 

[rockrat]

Saw a used Rockchucker at a local pawn shop today for $240. Seemed a bit high but maybe thats what the market is nowadays

 

[Herzo]

Lack of materials (brass and lead) seems to be one of the major problems.

 

[JimT]

And you sound like your taking your own medicine. Way to be proactive there Rambo.

Has anyone sat down and written out a statement to the any of the manufacturers that explains the specific problem? These are public companies with typical MBA's at the helm. They need to have it put into their own language.

- Has anyone performed a cost\benefit analysis of providing components only?
- What ratio would satisfy or reduce the demand curve?
- Has anyone performed a profit\ratio study to determine what the market would bear in a cost analysis?
- Is it sustainable?
- Can capacity be created in manufacturing?
- Is there achievable goodwill and community standing in publicly acknowledging and addressing shortfalls?
- Is there an equitable return on investment by promoting competitive shooting sports? Will new shooters be apt to become "volume" shooters if there is availability to use their "shiny new toys"?
- How much "marketability" is lost by not addressing shortfalls? Will our traditional customers poorly review emerging products unfavorably from spite? Are new or improved products going to be ignored. If you need evidence of this just ask Remington, or Bushmaster, or Winchester, or...

These companies may not have addressed these issues because they are not aware of secondary markets (That just happen to be PRIMARY MARKETS to a portion of their customers). They are just trying to keep their heads above water and their board of directors is trying to take profit as quickly as possible before the bubble bursts. It doesn't have to burst. There is a sustainable path forward.

Fair analysis is necessary to determine that new path forward. I cannot look at the company's books or make a guess at what they have determined or where they plan to capitalize in the future. CEO's make the case to the board. They are too busy to think about us unless we notify them. They can't make a sales package to the board and investors without defining the problem and a potential solution.

The current scenario is not pretty. Many shooting sports are going to be adversely affected by shortages. Standards and rules will need to be altered to make the sport accessible - the days of 250+ round matches are dwindling. I would like to see sustainable competitive shooting - it ain't going to happen at benchrest, PRS, FPS, F-class, or many other disciplines with factory ammo.

What I can do is try to send a politely worded and succinct memo and suggestions instead of a rant.

Kind of like you...

Sounds like you have a lot of work ahead of you. Better get started writing instead of whining.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Dan, No primers anywhere but dribs and drabs of ammo, powder and bullets.

I was at a outdoor store the other day. They said that there are about 8000 primers a week showing up. Very low but some. Turns out that the same group of guys are there before the store opens every morning to buy what came in. They are limiting sales to 500 primers to each person. Their inventory is gone before they ever get through the line of people who were there before the store opened. Frankly I don't know how they are getting any primers. With the ammo shelves empty those components should be dedicated to building product. Not that I buy factory ammo, I don't but most people do. In numbers that dwarf the reloading community.

 

[miningshawn]

Sounds like you have a lot of work ahead of you. Better get started writing instead of whining.

Yeah, I'm working on that. It isn't my forte... I tend to be a little bit more of a blunt-force kind of guy.

 

[Plumsask]

Everyone- please be gentle on your replies to this! As a Canadian with a "liberal gorvenment" at the moment who i do no support- i have seen gun prohibitions come into effect- but I haven't seen component and ammo before until now. What is the main driving factor behind the shortages? Is it the election of the Dem's? I have read that biden plans a crackdown on certain guns as our government is trying to enforce here. Why does this cause a spike in components and ammo sales?

Sincerely

Plum

 

[Bc'z]

A little humor about the current state of affairs.

 

[H2OBUG]

I think if the manufacturers maintain the production rate they were at then there will be some ammo and components available. However with the hording and high demand they should be able to get a premium for the current production. My guess 2X or 3X what they were getting a year ago. Same with firearms guys. This should push profits pretty good even with a raw materials and labor spike.
Obama loaded guys like ATK down with federal contracts thus limiting the supply to the public. no question he did this limit supply. I suspect the same to come shortly.

 

[gambleone]

Talking with another member today on the phone, I believe we're both gonna blow the dust off our archery gear.
Thinking about selling 2 out of 3 press's and stock of powder n primer

No, Bc'z. Give it a while. We'll be ok. Just gonna take a while.

 

[shoot4fun]

I heard there are bots that instantly raid online vendor's inventory as fast as they can post something in stock. Then the product is moved on Gunbroker at unheard of prices. Who is at fault there? If some of "us" weren't willing to pay $800 for 8 pounds of Varget then maybe the supply would normalize (if not partially).
Panic buying breeds panic buying.
This is not the fault of the manufacturers at all. We must remember they are dealing with all the effects of the pandemic in both labor force and suppliers. There is great quantities of powder that has to be shipped from overseas. It gets here and then goes to customs before being released to folks like Hodgdon, Alliant, etc.
Who's to say some anti-gun customs personnel aren't deliberately slowing that up?
When I was in the firearms industry we had a production number that didn't change on any given day. We did that to keep our contracts with suppliers of raw materials and to keep our employees making a wage. I saw times we had product stacked to thee rafters and stuck in any crack they could find. Other times they went out on the truck as fast as could be built. People asked (during runs) why we didn't build more. When output is at max the only way to increase is to add machinery and people who know how to run it to make the finished product with the same quality. That, my friends, is not an overnight transition.

 

[Bc'z]

No, Bc'z. Give it a while. We'll be ok. Just gonna take a while.

If'n USPS don't pull thier head outta thier ass and deliver my rifles to thier intended destination....

I'm throwing in the towel!!
I'll load the cast bullets I just ordered for the pistols and start dumping gear at a fair price, starting with the Dillon.

I know the market is volatile and it'll calm down, but looking at the money I have invested in this sport I can and will break even, while cutting a fat hog in the ass on my house and property.

 

[The boogalorian]

 

[Lefty Trigger]

One of my shooting buddy's boss where he works bought one of those "barrel of ammo" Hornady deals from Midway. Think he paid over 10k for that drum of .223... it was a panic buy for sure. I'll give up shooting before I pay rip-off gouging pricing, like $200 for 1000 primers.

 

[gambleone]

If'n USPS don't pull thier head outta thier ass and deliver my rifles to thier intended destination....

I'm throwing in the towel!!
I'll load the cast bullets I just ordered for the pistols and start dumping gear at a fair price, starting with the Dillon.

I know the market is volatile and it'll calm down, but looking at the money I have invested in this sport I can and will break even, while cutting a fat hog in the ass on my house and property.

I'm kinda in the same boat. I bought a rem 700 223 off a member on this forum but the barrel is bad. So I'm having him change it to a 222. I had him order from Bartlein since he could get it sooner than me. That was in Nov. He thinks he should have it this month.

 

[Rube Shooter]

Talking with another member today on the phone, I believe we're both gonna blow the dust off our archery gear.
Thinking about selling 2 out of 3 press's and stock of powder n primer

Going to scout a spot next to one of my feeders this weekend for an archery stand. I have a huge oak tree within 40 yds. that I have been thinking of putting up a stand in it for sometime now. Now I just have to hope my back can handle working a bow again.

 

[Bc'z]

Going to scout a spot next to one of my feeders this weekend for an archery stand. I have a huge oak tree within 40 yds. that I have been thinking of putting up a stand in it for sometime now. Now I just have to hope my back can handle working a bow again.

Drop your draw weight.
With the technology in archery gear a 50# bow @ 85% let off with properly splined arrows should be easier on your back and shoulder muscles.

 

[Shawnba67]

Talking with another member today on the phone, I believe we're both gonna blow the dust off our archery gear.
Thinking about selling 2 out of 3 press's and stock of powder n primer

Wow, you gonna retire on that fortune!

 

[Bc'z]

Wow, you gonna retire on that fortune!

I'm up almost 200k on house!
I still paint stocks on the side.

 

[300_whisper]

All the retired fudds buy up all the ammo every Tuesday and Thursday at the stores and then sell it on gunbroker or the local flee market for triple the price. That’s what’s happening.