COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[clowdis]

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I am noticing a trend in the above map and statistics. For instance, in the county I live in they show 18 active cases, 0 deaths, and 0 recoveries. Some of these cases have been going on for over 3 weeks so I would figure that if these people haven't died then some have recovered, maybe 30% of them. If this is true across the US then the active cases of Covid-19 are larger inflated by as much as 30%. Has anyone else noted this?

 

[SGK]

Active cases, recovered cases and deaths are available by county in the US. As is data relating to age distribution of cases and testing data. A lot of people take quite a few weeks to recover.

 

[SGK]

Initial jobless claims for the week to March 28 blew out to 6.65 million. That is absolutely massive.

 

[praveen]

One of the coolest graphics I've seen of how this entire thing progressed around the world:

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1654272/

 

[Coyotefurharvester]

Takes 4-7 days for the RT-PCR test to get to lab and results known, how they know someone died of the virus that was tested after they died and reported the next day that fatality was virus caused concerns me.

 

[skeeljc]

Anybody else notice the US death rate is ticking up? The thought has always been as we completed more testing that the death rate will go down, and it may well wind up that way. However, right now the death rate has ticked up to 2.2% where it has been holding at 1.4%.

Then again, as a former analyst used to working with spotty and incomplete data........the data for this pandemic is spotty and incomplete on steroids. I don't think we will have reliable data until several million tests completed.

The only reliable data on this pandemic is the number of deaths. The data on the number of cases is incomplete.

 

[INTJ]

The only reliable data on this pandemic is the number of deaths. The data on the number of cases is incomplete.

Even the number of deaths isn't reliable. They are reporting anyone who has COVID-19 and died as a COVID-19 death, when most of the people who died had one or more underlying conditions. We need to see those people that died when their ONLY issue was COVID-19.

 

[JimT]

Even the number of deaths isn't reliable. They are reporting anyone who has COVID-19 and died as a COVID-19 death, when most of the people who died had one or more underlying conditions. We need to see those people that died when their ONLY issue was COVID-19.

I suppose I’ve read more idiotic statements lately, but yours is easily in the top 5.

 

[INTJ]

I suppose I’ve read more idiotic statements lately, but yours is easily in the top 5.

Yawn......

Sound's like someone is having a bad day.......

 

[JimT]

Yawn......

Sound's like someone is having a bad day.......

Not really. Although, I have 2 son-in-law’s that are first responders and knowing they may be exposed to the virus by 0’s with your mindset pisses me off.

 

[SGK]

There's been a lot of discussion in Europe about what the real rate of "excess deaths" is with, of course, some arguing that many of those who have died were dying anyway and so don't constitute "excess deaths". The reality is, of course, that we are all dying from the moment we are born and the virus has the ability to kill you "before your time." (Whatever that really means.)

I have, thankfully mild, asthma. If I get COVID and die am I not an "excess death" because I had an "underlying precondition or risk factor"? I don't perceive my asthma to otherwise be a threat to my life, just a pain in the arse from time to time (it prevents me drinking champagne for one thing). If my father gets it he is very likely to die from it. He has Type II diabetes, amongst other things, and prior injuries which prevent him from doing the exercise he should be doing at his age. If he does die from it I would regard his life as having been cut very short at 76.

It's interesting to read also that many believe that the number of deaths due to coronavirus is grossly underestimated because often only those dying in hospital, with a positive COVID test, are recorded as dying from it. This FT article today makes gruesome reading. It discusses how COVID is ripping through elderly nursing homes in Spain and France and how many deaths due to COVID aren't captured in official statistics. (Unfortunately the link can only be opened three times as per FT's sharing policy)

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/3a91f3ba-9234-4404-8632-edbf2a69fa5f

So the statistics aren't "reliable" in the sense that they are absolutely accurate. There will be a lot of inaccuracies in number of deaths and of course the number of confirmed cases (and active cases) depends on the level of testing. But make no mistake, the virus is wreaking serious havoc even with very restrictive NPI in place in many countries (but not yet widespread in the US).

Take it seriously. Stay safe.

PS: I heard today that a cardiovascular surgeon I know from my local gym - a really nice otherwise healthy, fit guy a lot younger than me - is in intensive care coupled to a ventilator with COVID. I have friends in Europe who have had it. I know of people just 2 degrees of separation removed who have died from it.

 

[INTJ]

Not really. Although, I have 2 son-in-law’s that are first responders and knowing they may be exposed to the virus by 0’s with your mindset pisses me off.

It's not possible for you to understand the mindset of an INTJ, especially one that flew jets in the USAF. Don't even try. So I will again give you the benefit of the doubt, but this is the LAST time.

The only way to know the true effect of this virus is to have ACCURATE and COMPLETE data. This means tracking and analyzing every detail without emotion. We absolutely need to know who had underlying conditions and who didn't. Both for infection and deaths. This lets us to accurately identify who is most at risk. That will makes a big difference is determining how we deal with this going forward. What we are doing now is not economically sustainable. However, we cannot ease current restrictions until we have more complete data. I really shouldn't have had to explain that.......

BTW, my youngest daughter is currently in quarantine where she works (care-giver to special needs people) because someone (with your mindset? Couldn't resist ) moved in a new client from a different city two weeks ago. That client now has a fever and potentially exposed my daughter. However, this is not a huge concern because 22 yr olds that aren't obese, smokers, or have certain underlying conditions aren't likely to be seriously ill if they do get the virus. Further, even in close quarters there is a 90% chance they won't become infected if they take precautions. That is what the data seems to show at present, though it is constantly changing. Regardless, emotion is of no help in any of this.

 

[JimT]

It's not possible for you to understand the mindset of an INTJ, especially one that flew jets in the USAF. Don't even try. So I will again give you the benefit of the doubt, but this is the LAST time.

The only way to know the true effect of this virus is to have ACCURATE and COMPLETE data. This means tracking and analyzing every detail without emotion. We absolutely need to know who had underlying conditions and who didn't. Both for infection and deaths. This lets us to accurately identify who is most at risk. That will makes a big difference is determining how we deal with this going forward. What we are doing now is not economically sustainable. However, we cannot ease current restrictions until we have more complete data. I really shouldn't have had to explain that.......

BTW, my youngest daughter is currently in quarantine where she works (care-giver to special needs people) because someone (with your mindset? Couldn't resist ) moved in a new client from a different city two weeks ago. That client now has a fever and potentially exposed my daughter. However, this is not a huge concern because 21 yr olds that aren't obese, smokers, or have certain underlying conditions aren't likely to be seriously ill if they do get the virus. Further, even in close quarters there is a 90% chance they won't become infected if they take precautions. That is what the data seems to show at present, though it is constantly changing. Regardless, emotion is of no help in any of this.

Yeah Blaine, I know all about you and I can’t say I’m impressed.

 

[INTJ]

Yeah Blaine, I know all about you and I can’t say I’m impressed.

LOL!! That has to be the funniest thing I have seen posted in days!

 

[INTJ]

Here is some reporting on the data that I think should be front and center:

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-...tions-underlying-health-conditions-cdc-2020-3

Here is an excerpt:

"As of March 28, US states and territories had reported 122,653 coronavirus cases, the report said. For the 7,162 cases in which patients' underlying health data were available, the CDC said 71% of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 and 78% of those admitted to intensive care units had preexisting conditions or risk factors. By contrast, just 27% of people who tested positive but weren't hospitalized had underlying health issues.

The most frequently reported preexisting conditions among US coronavirus patients were diabetes, chronic lung disease, and cardiovascular disease."

 

[SGK]

The last sentence likely describes a large proportion of the US population: poor diet and poor exercise (often compounded by smoking and other addictions) leading to obesity, diabetes, weak cardiovascular systems etc. It's not surprising that some of the top killers in the US in 2017 were diabetes, heart disease and respiratory issues (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm). According to https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2228rank.html and other sources the US ranks 12th in the world in terms of obesity with 36% of the population obese. (On my personal view of what I'd call "fat" I'd raise that number to about 2/3rds!) 10 of the 11 countries ranking higher than the US are Pacific island countries. So basically a huge proportion of the country have "pre-existing conditions". Take a look in the mirror and see if you think you've looked after yourself. Then ask yourself whether, if you died from COVID today, you'd consider your life to have been cut short.

 

[hogpatrol]

The last sentence likely describes a large proportion of the US population: poor diet and poor exercise (often compounded by smoking and other addictions leading to obesity, diabetes, weak cardiovascular systems etc). It's not surprising that some of the top killers in the US in 2017 were diabetes, heart disease and respiratory issues (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm). According to https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2228rank.html and other sources the US ranks 12th in the world in terms of obesity with 36% of the population obese. (On my personal view of what I'd call "fat" I'd raise that number to about 2/3rds!) 10 of the 11 countries ranking higher than the US are Pacific island countries. So basically a huge proportion of the country have "pre-existing" conditions. Take a look in the mirror and see if you think you've looked after yourself. Then ask yourself whether, if you died from COVID today, you'd consider your life to have been cut short.

Agree but I'd amend the first sentence and substitute WORLD for US. I doubt the world's poor are eating right and getting enough exercise. Half of the world's population live on less than $2.50 a day.

 

[SGK]

Emerging market countries could well be slammed. A greater proportion of people in the US have had the opportunity to make better life choices.

You have to scroll a long way down those obesity rankings to find places like France, Spain and Italy that are in the thick of COVID today. 1355 deaths in France yesterday alone.

But the greater point is that talk of pre-existing conditions and debating whether a death was an "excess death" is really rather pointless. It represents a significant shock to life expectancy. Thankfully, this is probably the first time in history that mankind has faced a pandemic and has the wherewithal to fight it.

 

[JimT]

In my state it appears that around 85% of the deaths are those aged 70 and over.

 

[Laurie]

Even the number of deaths isn't reliable. They are reporting anyone who has COVID-19 and died as a COVID-19 death, when most of the people who died had one or more underlying conditions. We need to see those people that died when their ONLY issue was COVID-19.

Whilst mis-allocation of exact cause is an issue, under-reporting is IMO a much greater issue and danger right now. For instance, there are consistent reports of massive under-reporting in northern Italy - two town mayors have separately complained that actual CV-19 related deaths are running at 3 to 4 times the reported levels for their jurisdictions. Analysts are pointing out that the increase in total deaths of all causes in the region compared to those of previous years is running at a far higher level than should be the case if official CV statistics were accurate. Here in the UK, I know that only hospital patient deaths currently make the official tally so those dying at home or in care homes aren't included. That's hardly surprising given the pressures on primary care health staff and local officials in current conditions. I don't suppose many PMs are being done right now!

No doubt at a later stage, there will be analysis of what percentage of those currently being reported as CV-19 victims are wholly attributable or only partially so to the virus. Right now it's not exactly a priority and if it leads people to underrate the potential risk is unhelpful, not to say irresponsible.