COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[INTJ]

Right now it's not exactly a priority and if it leads people to underrate the potential risk is unhelpful, not to say irresponsible.

I see it differently. The biggest errors that have been made in handling this pandemic has been the actions/lack of actions taken due to incomplete data. Now incomplete data is always an issue regardless of the endeavor or event, and we do the best we can with the data we have at the time.

The best way to improve our actions is by getting more complete data and making more accurate assessments. Otherwise we are stuck on a very damaging path that is based too much on preconceptions and gut feel.

 

[JimT]

I see it differently. The biggest errors that have been made in handling this pandemic has been the actions/lack of actions taken due to incomplete data. Now incomplete data is always an issue regardless of the endeavor or event, and we do the best we can with the data we have at the time.

The best way to improve our actions is by getting more complete data and making more accurate assessments. Otherwise we are stuck on a very damaging path that is based too much on preconceptions and gut feel.

How is this for data?

https://apple.news/AI9lsjl9mQlCIUm0sgtxuZA

 

[INTJ]

How is this for data?

https://apple.news/AI9lsjl9mQlCIUm0sgtxuZA

It's both good and bad. Good in that it is a data point, bad in that they are using it to generate an emotional response. Making decisions based on emotion vs critical thinking is always wrong.

 

[INTJ]

Here is the view of an MD which I think reflects the view of many if not most in the medical profession.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/matthew-meyerson-five-covid-19-theses.php

MATTHEW MEYERSON: FIVE COVID-19 THESES
Dr. Matthew Meyerson wrote us yesterday to express his disagreement with the gist of a post or two on the site. “I think that you are underestimating the seriousness of this epidemic,” he stated, “and I would like to address this with you.” I asked Dr. Meyerson for permission to post his comments and to identify him as a Power Line reader. He has graciously granted his permission and authorized us to identify him as “a Power Line fan!” Holding both M.D. and Ph.D. degrees, Dr. Meyerson is professor of genetics and medicine at Harvard Medical School. He is also Director of the Center for Cancer Genomics at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute. Although his research is focused on cancer genetics, he is pitching in to help out in the present emergency with COVID-19 research. Dr. Meyerson writes:

1. COVID-19 is very highly transmissible. There are numerous news stories of a single event where probably a single infected individual caused dozens or hundreds of infections and numerous deaths: a choir practice in Washington state, a funeral in Georgia, a medical conference in Boston, a bridge tournament in El Paso county, Colorado. These are often not high-touch environments but the transmissibility has been very high.

2. COVID-19 causes severe illness in medical professionals and otherwise healthy young people. There are numerous examples of previously healthy young people, especially physicians, who are becoming severely ill or dying from COVID-19 infections. This almost never happens in other diseases. Now medical practice is dangerous, like serving as a soldier in a war. And the physicians and nurses and other health professionals not only get the disease, they spread the disease. Both the risk of illness and death, and the risk of spreading disease, have caused sheer terror in the medical and other health professions.

3. It is hard to compare deaths from COVID-19 to deaths from influenza. The data on influenza deaths are of limited value as we do not routinely test for influenza virus infection or other respiratory infections the way we do for COVID-19. We should, but we don’t. So we truly have no idea of how many people get influenza or other respiratory viral infections or how many die from it. The “pneumonia and influenza” heading in death records may represent a very broad mixture of diseases.

4. I do not believe that we are overreacting to COVID-19. We are seeing a highly transmissible disease (as high as 100-fold transmission rate, averaging 4-fold in Chinese data with the best estimates, but almost certainly higher) with a 1 percent to 2 percent mortality across large populations. That would suggest the possibility of 3 million to 6 million deaths in the US if we got to 300 million infections, and we could. We will likely have far fewer deaths than this, but a stronger, earlier response would have saved more. And a stronger response today could still save far more people than a more mild response.

5. Until we have treatments and vaccines, preventing transmission is the only way to go. Every blocked transmission could be a life saved—or many lives, given how transmissible the virus is. And every person-to-person interaction that we don’t have could be a new case of COVID19 prevented.

 

[JimT]

Here is the view of an MD which I think reflects the view of many if not most in the medical profession.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/matthew-meyerson-five-covid-19-theses.php

MATTHEW MEYERSON: FIVE COVID-19 THESES
Dr. Matthew Meyerson wrote us yesterday to express his disagreement with the gist of a post or two on the site. “I think that you are underestimating the seriousness of this epidemic,” he stated, “and I would like to address this with you.” I asked Dr. Meyerson for permission to post his comments and to identify him as a Power Line reader. He has graciously granted his permission and authorized us to identify him as “a Power Line fan!” Holding both M.D. and Ph.D. degrees, Dr. Meyerson is professor of genetics and medicine at Harvard Medical School. He is also Director of the Center for Cancer Genomics at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute. Although his research is focused on cancer genetics, he is pitching in to help out in the present emergency with COVID-19 research. Dr. Meyerson writes:

1. COVID-19 is very highly transmissible. There are numerous news stories of a single event where probably a single infected individual caused dozens or hundreds of infections and numerous deaths: a choir practice in Washington state, a funeral in Georgia, a medical conference in Boston, a bridge tournament in El Paso county, Colorado. These are often not high-touch environments but the transmissibility has been very high.

2. COVID-19 causes severe illness in medical professionals and otherwise healthy young people. There are numerous examples of previously healthy young people, especially physicians, who are becoming severely ill or dying from COVID-19 infections. This almost never happens in other diseases. Now medical practice is dangerous, like serving as a soldier in a war. And the physicians and nurses and other health professionals not only get the disease, they spread the disease. Both the risk of illness and death, and the risk of spreading disease, have caused sheer terror in the medical and other health professions.

3. It is hard to compare deaths from COVID-19 to deaths from influenza. The data on influenza deaths are of limited value as we do not routinely test for influenza virus infection or other respiratory infections the way we do for COVID-19. We should, but we don’t. So we truly have no idea of how many people get influenza or other respiratory viral infections or how many die from it. The “pneumonia and influenza” heading in death records may represent a very broad mixture of diseases.

4. I do not believe that we are overreacting to COVID-19. We are seeing a highly transmissible disease (as high as 100-fold transmission rate, averaging 4-fold in Chinese data with the best estimates, but almost certainly higher) with a 1 percent to 2 percent mortality across large populations. That would suggest the possibility of 3 million to 6 million deaths in the US if we got to 300 million infections, and we could. We will likely have far fewer deaths than this, but a stronger, earlier response would have saved more. And a stronger response today could still save far more people than a more mild response.

5. Until we have treatments and vaccines, preventing transmission is the only way to go. Every blocked transmission could be a life saved—or many lives, given how transmissible the virus is. And every person-to-person interaction that we don’t have could be a new case of COVID19 prevented.

Someone on this thread said this 14 days ago.


“I am so tired of the hype. We are being stupid about all this. We should absolutely be cautious, severely quarantine the most at risk, practice social distancing, and work on meds and vaccines. However, if we are quarantined on national level much more than 2-3 weeks we risk a depression, which will have much greater impact than COVID-19. If no one one knew about the Wuhan Virus, at the end of the flu season all we would have noticed is that it was a tougher flu season than normal.”

 

[spclark]

Someone on this thread said this 14 days ago.

Reality of 14 days ago isn’t the reality today.

We know more now than we did then.

To ignore what we’ve learned since is uncivilized, even criminal if the ignorance inspires foolish behavior that will cost lives.

 

[Laurie]

3. It is hard to compare deaths from COVID-19 to deaths from influenza. The data on influenza deaths are of limited value as we do not routinely test for influenza virus infection or other respiratory infections the way we do for COVID-19. We should, but we don’t. So we truly have no idea of how many people get influenza or other respiratory viral infections or how many die from it. The “pneumonia and influenza” heading in death records may represent a very broad mixture of diseases.

The UK government is getting a great deal of stick right now over testing levels and (lack of) preparedness to do CV mass testing. This (ie Dr. Meyerson's #3 point) is one of the reasons given in response - in past pandemic exercises and major emergency planning, a corona type virus wasn't factored in and it was assumed that an influenza based type was a much greater risk. It seems that because Asian countries were hit far harder than western nations by earlier CV type outbreaks specifically SARS, they took much more account of a major outbreak of this type than the UK and US, hence early and effective testing and contact tracing. We've let the tigers out of their cage and have to deal with them in more difficult conditions.

 

[6BRinNZ]

I'm watching Sweden with interest.
In NZ the media (and opposition) is starting to raise the question of a healthy nation vs a dead economy and where the balance might be.
Hopefully the big brains can figure something practical out as the economy is going to be in ICU for many years but nothing to prevent another virus like this kicking off again.

 

[INTJ]

Reality of 14 days ago isn’t the reality today.

We know more now than we did then.

To ignore what we’ve learned since is uncivilized, even criminal if the ignorance inspires foolish behavior that will cost lives.

It is nice to find that some here who get it. The question is still and will always be the Medical view vs the Economist view. The link I posted is the Medical view and is important to understand. Finding the right balance is key, and finding the balance is driven by data and critical thinking. That balance will shift slightly as we move through this. Going all-in with either perspective is error.

I still think the best approach is similar to what I described 14 days ago. I think the Stimulus Bill we didn't have 14 days ago--though filled with pork--will help mitigate the short term economic impact to the point that we can continue our national restrictions through April. The long term economic outlook is not as good. There are BIG consequences for adding $2 Trillion in deficit and printing $4 Trillion in additional currency.

 

[SGK]

Being a NZer and still having family in HB I certainly hope Jacinda is using the 4 weeks to beef up hospital preparedness. The stay home orders in NZ won't achieve anything but buy some time to get respirators, beds and other frontline equipment.

 

[JimT]

Reality of 14 days ago isn’t the reality today.

We know more now than we did then.

To ignore what we’ve learned since is uncivilized, even criminal if the ignorance inspires foolish behavior that will cost lives.

I encourage everyone to reread this entire thread. Few were exhibiting “critical thinking” based on sound factual data while there was an abundance of “emotional” prognostications based on specious facts and comparisons. Unfortunately, this same behavior was playing out in the highest decision making circles throughout the country and we are paying the price.

 

[SGK]

^^^This

"And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done." Feb 26

 

[JimT]

It is nice to find that some here who get it. The question is still and will always be the Medical view vs the Economist view. The link I posted is the Medical view and is important to understand. Finding the right balance is key, and finding the balance is driven by data and critical thinking. That balance will shift slightly as we move through this. Going all-in with either perspective is error.

I still think the best approach is similar to what I described 14 days ago. I think the Stimulus Bill we didn't have 14 days ago--though filled with pork--will help mitigate the short term economic impact to the point that we can continue our national restrictions through April. The long term economic outlook is not as good. There are BIG consequences for adding $2 Trillion in deficit and printing $4 Trillion in additional currency.

Not nearly as big as ignoring the $100 trillion underfunded liability associated with old age entitlements!

 

[SGK]

There's a plan in execution right now to trim that liability back a little

 

[INTJ]

The UK government is getting a great deal of stick right now over testing levels and (lack of) preparedness to do CV mass testing. This (ie Dr. Meyerson's #3 point) is one of the reasons given in response - in past pandemic exercises and major emergency planning, a corona type virus wasn't factored in and it was assumed that an influenza based type was a much greater risk. It seems that because Asian countries were hit far harder than western nations by earlier CV type outbreaks specifically SARS, they took much more account of a major outbreak of this type than the UK and US, hence early and effective testing and contact tracing. We've let the tigers out of their cage and have to deal with them in more difficult conditions.

No doubt there is a lot of blame to go around for lack of preparation. However, it looks like then Trump Administration was looking at a similar scenario last year. It may be more of a case of something that could happen is never prioritized until it does happen.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...lation-predicted-current-failures-2020-3?op=1

 

[INTJ]

Not nearly as big as ignoring the $100 trillion underfunded liability associated with old age entitlements!

You'll get no argument from me on that topic.......

 

[JimT]

There's a plan in execution right now to trim that liability back a little

I noticed that.

 

[INTJ]

I encourage everyone to reread this entire thread. Few were exhibiting “critical thinking” based on sound factual data while there was an abundance of “emotional” prognostications based on specious facts and comparisons. Unfortunately, this same behavior was playing out in the highest decision making circles throughout the country and we are paying the price.

And that was my original point......

 

[6BRinNZ]

Being a NZer and still having family in HB I certainly hope Jacinda is using the 4 weeks to beef up hospital preparedness. The stay home orders in NZ won't achieve anything but buy some time to get respirators, beds and other frontline equipment.

Yeah there is a massive shift with the medical system in NZ (not to say there aren't gaps)...hospital admissions at the moment ~13 from last update. Its clear they realise we don't have the resources to whip up new temp hospitals etc so they are going hard on community lock down.
I doubt very much its only going to be 4 weeks...the language is now - stamp it out. I think this might be why the healthy nation vs economic survival questions are being raised.
One thing about NZ - its relatively easy to control our borders - our infection rate community based ~1-2% with ~98% coming from people returning from overseas.
IMO if they had shut the borders early and fully (taken advantage of our uniqueness in this respect) NZ would be in a much better place.

 

[SGK]

Relatively speaking they shut the border quickly. But closing the border for 4 weeks doesn't do anything if the rest of the world still has it. And NZ, like any country, can't keep its border closed indefinitely. A vaccine is still many, many months away.