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COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

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INTJ said:
Here is a thoughtful back and forth on Powerline, with some charts.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/03/an-optimistic-projection-of-covid-19-deaths.php
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Local news here just reported that a homeless person tested positive and then just walked away. The inner cites and the third world will be taking a beating with this virus. As long as everyone keeps their heads for the next several weeks, I think we might get out of this a little better than first thought. People with pre existing conditions will also take it on the chin Im afraid. Don't watch too much of the depressing news. I cut the cable years ago. and I get what I need off of the internet and then go about my business of dry firing, listing to podcast of long range shooting disciplines. Its a good life.
 
From the FT an hour ago:

Trump warns of 'very, very painful two weeks' as White House presents fatality estimates

Donald Trump told Americans to be prepared for a "very painful, very very painful two weeks" as doctors on the White House's coronavirus task force unveiled models that showed fatalities in the US could reach 240,000 even in the best-case scenario.

Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, medical experts who have led the task force, said that even with "full mitigation", the US was likely to see 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, with fatalities reaching an apex in about two weeks and then extending well into June.

Both Dr Fauci and Dr Birx said they hoped that the total would be lower, noting that the current projections are based on data gathered from the hardest-hit states like New York and New Jersey as well as the course the disease ran in Italy.

But they acknowledged the 100,000-240,000 forecast was the best estimate based on academic models even if the US continues lockdown policies that prevent large gatherings and impose social distancing.
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Tucker Carlson claims that Chinese scientists wrote a paper two months ago saying they think the virus came from an accidental containment failure at health lab in Wuhan. One that that was researching corona viruses in the Horseshoe Bat.

Evidently there are no populations of Horseshoe bats within 900km of Wuhan, and these were no bats sold at the meat market.

Does anyone know about this paper?
 
The study of SARS like viruses in horseshoe bats dates all the way back to the SARS outbreak in the 00s. Scientists have been for a long time concerned about the ability of some viruses to make the jump from animals to humans (HIV being the best-known example).

Of course accusations are going to fly that this virus was 'lab grown'. Or that there was a 'containment failure' of a bat virus and that this containment failure led to an immediate jump to humans.

Widely published work to date on the current virus has shown no evidence that it was 'lab grown.'

We shall see. For now it doesn't matter.
 
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If true, while the virus wasn't lab grown or a bio weapon, it also didn't come from the meat market that doesn't sell Horseshoe Bats.

So the end of all this would simply be "What a surprise, the Chinese lied again"........
 
At least one basic question gives rise to skepticism of such accusations. If the Chinese government was aware of the source why would they wait well over a month to shut down Wuhan? They were well experienced with SARS from the first decade of this century with that experience meaning they were better prepared than Western Europe and the Americas to deal with this outbreak. They understood better than most the economic and humanitarian crisis an outbreak could cause - to themselves and others.

Anyway, I don't think it matters much (for now). Of much more concern is dealing with it here and now. You could place a few countries inside your quotes...
 
I lived in Japan for three years. One thing that was very interesting was the great lengths they would go to avoid bringing attention on themselves. Especially negative attention. This tends be an characteristic of the Far East.

So if a government health lab was shown to be incompetent, it would bring negative attention the Chinese Government. But if it originated from a meat market.....

Such an origin would also fit a favorite corollary of mine: Never assume conspiracy over incompetence.......
 
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SGK said:
At least one basic question gives rise to skepticism of such accusations. If the Chinese government was aware of the source why would they wait well over a month to shut down Wuhan? They were well experienced with SARS from the first decade of this century with that experience meaning they were better prepared than Western Europe and the Americas to deal with this outbreak. They understood better than most the economic and humanitarian crisis an outbreak could cause - to themselves and others.

Anyway, I don't think it matters much (for now). Of much more concern is dealing with it here and now. You could place a few countries inside your quotes...
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Couldn't have anything to do with the efficiency of central planning we hear so much about from the left could it?
 
Anybody else notice the US death rate is ticking up? The thought has always been as we completed more testing that the death rate will go down, and it may well wind up that way. However, right now the death rate has ticked up to 2.2% where it has been holding at 1.4%.

Then again, as a former analyst used to working with spotty and incomplete data........the data for this pandemic is spotty and incomplete on steroids. I don't think we will have reliable data until several million tests completed.
 
It takes a little while to die. The real crush comes when hospital beds are full and there aren't anymore ventilators. We've only just started.

And the swab testing is only good for the time it was taken - if you got it you got it but if you haven't you have no idea if you will get it.
 
That plus number of cases is still in its infancy here in the US. Remember, we're a few weeks behind Europe. Plus, the US still hasn't imposed the sorts of NPI that exist in much of Europe.
 
SGK said:
That plus number of cases is still in its infancy here in the US. Remember, we're a few weeks behind Europe. Plus, the US still hasn't imposed the sorts of NPI that exist in much of Europe.
Click to expand...

That's another one of these story lines that I dispute. WA saw the first cases in the nation, January 15th. Three weeks before anything showed up in New York. In WA the numbers are going up but very gradually unlike New York where they exploded. In New York the mayor was recommending that people go out for a movie and even which movies to see while the problem was evident and the NBA was shutting down it's season. People are still gathering in parks for b ball games and when the hospital ship arrived, crowds of people where there watching. Hopefully the rest of the country uses New York as an example of what NOT to do. Here in WA we are 2.5 months into this. About as long as it has been going in Europe.

P.S. Just saw Cuomo telling New Yorkers not to play basket ball in the park. WTF?
 
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