PS it would be interesting to hear @Laurie 's thoughts on what's happening in the UK at the moment. Regional leadership have learnt to haggle for money in return for supporting elevated levels of COVID NPI. And ultimatums are being retuned to them.
To say there are divided responses and dissent here is to put it mildly.
First, the devolved regions / 'nations' (Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales) are all implementing their own responses largely uncoordinated with anything in England, the most populous part of the UK. Wales has today announced a two-week 'firebreak' starting Friday that is close to a full lockdown; Scotland and Ireland are moving to semi-lockdowns as so-called 'circuit breakers'.
In England, the north of the country started to see large rises in cases well before the south and London. A three tier categorisation of regional situations has been adopted - Tiers 1 (medium infection levels); 2 (high); 3 (very high). Over half the English population now live in a Tier 2 or 3 area. 2 stops mixing of households indoors and bar and restaurant 10 pm curfews; 3 sees the hospitality industry more or less shut down and a complete ban on household mixing including outdoors. It's all much more complex than this though and that's part of the problem - people are genuinely confused and often resentful / angry too.
There is growing dissent and disagreement now about what the case numbers really mean. With a 10-fold increase in testing, sure you'll find more cases. More important, hospitalisations / serious cases / deaths are growing much more slowly than in Wave 1. There is much evidence that case rises are heavily linked to the reopening of schools in early September and even more so universities and colleges from mid September. Unlike in many countries, UK university students mostly apply to institutions in other towns / cities / areas and live in hostels ('halls of residence'); shared rented houses. This sees huge mixing of people from all over the country and also from abroad given the very high level of foreign students in the UK. Where I live (York) we allegedly have 40,000 students here in term time, a city population increase of around 20% over the non-term periods. Students also apply to remote institutions despite the costs involved to enjoy the 'student experience' - making new friends and relationships, parties, drinking sessions, bull-sessions in communal areas in halls. So incidences of ignoring social distancing laws and regulations and subsequent virus transmission have been high causing rocketing local figures, but rises in hospitalisations / seriously ill individuals are much lower. Also, the teenage and young adult population Covid-weariness levels show signs of a huge rise with open defiance. Enforced 10 pm bar / restaurant / club curfews have seen huge informal street parties as thousands exit hospitality venues with the police struggling to break them up and persuade them to go home. Many no doubt then go to alfresco parties in private homes too. There is a £10,000 spot fine for running illegal parties and many cases of people caught and fined, but this is no doubt the tip of a large iceberg.
London and the south have seen lesser growth rates, but still enough for London and a large area around it to be moved from Tier 1 to 2. There is growing public and local political cynicism / scepticism over the value of Tier 2 regulations and probably resulting large scale non-compliance. So Tier 3 impositions - and worse - are increasingly on the cards. Public Health England and SAGE only have one answer to everything - broadscale restrictions and ultimately full lockdown until a vaccine appears.
Now ..... interestingly a large discrepancy in attitudes / behaviours is becoming apparent. In polls there is a large majority (>60%) for ever tighter restrictions; in private huge non-compliance. There are in effect no checks on whether those traced and told to isolate, even go into a full 14-day quarantine do so. There is also NO support. Starve or lose your job / house in quarantine? Your problems! Research now comes up with the risible figure of 11% compliance with isolation or quarantine orders. !!!!
Also, local politicians and also Members of Parliament for affected areas are now kicking back. Up to now government and PHE have simply imposed measures often at 36 hours notice and given no justifications. 'No more!' say the people's representatives. Prove the need! The 10 pm bar / restaurant curfew has reduced already affected takings by an additional 40%. Will the measure work? Research says <5% of new transmissions arise in these establishments. Government admits there is no scientific proof - but curfews are needed 'to send a message to the public' - actually said in meetings with local bodies and since passed on in the media. In Greater Manchester, it is not just the local (Labour Party) mayor saying 'No!!' to Tier 3 imposition, but a whole raft of local MPs including many Conservative Party politicos are telling their own government to prove the need or back off. Money/compensation negotiating games are part of the current dance / impasse - but it is way more than just this factor affecting attitudes and stances. Police chiefs in such areas hint that they won't apply emergency laws if imposed without proof or justification too.
So, we are at a crossroads. If behaviours don't change and hospitalisations / deaths rise rapidly there will inevitably be a return to widescale geographic lockdowns. If new cases stay high / rise, but serious illness and deaths remain manageable, what's left of Boris Johnson's already minimal credibility will be flushed down a drain and HMG may as well sack its lockdown and modelling obsessed senior officials and advisers.
Identical events are happening all over Europe. Even Germany has seen the 'Lands' (regions) start to oppose new central government restrictions and refuse to implement them (as they can under the very devolved Federal German constitution).
Land courts are also now overturning
Federal restrictions such as a successful court application by a Berlin bar chain against an 11pm pub curfew. No proof of need provided by central government and the measure judged 'disproportionate'.
Interesting times ... as they say!
