COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[JimT]

An intelligent individual cultivates his vices and enjoys them into old age. Only those gripped by fear and a desire to appease naysayers abandon the finer pleasures life has to offer.

You could be like her!!! Yay!!!

 

[ronsatspokane]

No, you are the freeloader the right tells me about!!

I am retired and receiving social security. My message to you: work harder you lazy bastard.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Come on Ron, you were doing ok without resorting to trolling

The numbers indicate that there was a significant difference in infection and death rates from enacting lockdowns versus not. But you knew that.

The numbers we are seeing are insignificant given the fact that Sweden took a different course than the rest of the world did. We will see how it plays out. How many people do not have jobs to return to when their doors are unlocked will be interesting to see. How many have or will turn to alcohol or drugs or suffer mental illness in those countries that locked down their populations. The analysis going forward will be interesting to see. I tip my hat to the Swedes, they did it right and will likely have heard immunity where other countries will suffer a second wave when they finally unlock their populations.

P.S. Sweden has roughly twice the infections Norway does. They also have twice the population. Interesting fact.

 

[ronsatspokane]

You could be like her!!! Yay!!!

As stated in post 558, none of us will live long enough to worry about all the things that can kill us.

 

[ronsatspokane]

I’ve been “retired” for 21 years and I’ll turn 63 in July.

So the pot calls the kettle black. First time I've ever seen that.

 

[Michael Bryant]

Sorry, I’m not drinking what you’re selling

That’s your right. Don’t believe the truth just keep drinking the government kool aid

 

[ronsatspokane]

No government checks for me!

I'm willing to accept all the taxes you are willing to give. And when my man Bernie becomes president I'm going to get some of that free education shit he's been talking about. I'll go back for a PhD in Philosophy so I can pontificate day in and day out with authority. And I'll do it all on your dime. Thank you for your contributions to my welfare. Now give more you cheapskate before Bernie takes it all away and gives it to me on your behalf.

 

[mike a]

I’ve been “retired” for 21 years and I’ll turn 63 in July.

I'm 60, quit smokin and drinkin four years ago. I'm in my prime. I'll never retire and I'm gonna live forever. Mike

 

[ronsatspokane]

I’ve been supporting the uneducated and underprivileged my entire life, you would just be another in a long line.

I see, so it's a dick measuring contest you seek. Well son, I've paid more in taxes in some years than the medium income in most states and have also accumulated a not so insignificant pile of fuck you money. However, having paid into Social Security for over 45 years I'm taking as much of it back as I can get with the full knowledge that I will never get back what was stolen from me, especially when compound interest is factored in. Perhaps if you had a stronger work ethic you could have stuck it out longer and deserved to get something back as well.

 

[INTJ]

When all this started the experts said this was no big deal. Then they found out that China lied about the origin and its transmissibility, and that the WHO was unreliable.

The experts next move was puzzling, as they decided to accept worst case models that were wildly wrong vs considering that COVID-19 would probably be like other respiratory viruses.

Be that as it may, with all the uncertainty it made sense for the initial two week shutdown. Not that such a shutdown would reduce the number of cases but we needed to flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming medical capacity.

The big error has been as the actual data came in it showed the models used for the caseload assumption were hopelessly wrong and that we were in no danger of overwhelming medical capacity. At that point the shutdown should have started ending, though social distancing, protecting the vulnerable, and quarantining the sick should have continued. However, instead of opening up our experts and leaders decided to protect their position and double down on the necessity of shutdown.

As a consequence we have damaged our economy terribly. We have weakened our collective immune systems and even have had to furlough many in our medical profession.

The experts and our leaders will claim all this damage was necessary to save lives. They can only come to that conclusion if they assume the worst case scenario models were reality had we done nothing. They have to make this assumption or else they must admit they damaged us for nothing. Since there is no true way to tell what might have happened they will claim they were right and then dismiss any criticism by virtue-signaling about lives vs dollars.

The likely scenario was had we only done social distancing, quarantined the sick, and protected the vulnerable we would have seen a similar number of deaths without creating the disaster we have now. This was common sense before all this started.

 

[sdean]

When all this started the experts said this was no big deal. Then they found out that China lied about the origin and its transmissibility, and that the WHO was unreliable.

The experts next move was puzzling, as they decided to accept worst case models that were wildly wrong vs considering that COVID-19 would probably be like other respiratory viruses.

Be that as it may, with all the uncertainty it made sense for the initial two week shutdown. Not that such a shutdown would reduce the number of cases but we needed to flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming medical capacity.

The big error has been as the actual data came in it showed the models used for the caseload assumption were hopelessly wrong and that we were in no danger of overwhelming medical capacity. At that point the shutdown should have started ending, though social distancing, protecting the vulnerable, and quarantining the sick should have continued. However, instead of opening up our experts and leaders decided to protect their position and double down on the necessity of shutdown.

As a consequence we have damaged our economy terribly. We have weakened our collective immune systems and even have had to furlough many in our medical profession.

The experts and our leaders will claim all this damage was necessary to save lives. They can only come to that conclusion if they assume the worst case scenario models were reality had we done nothing. They have to make this assumption or else they must admit they damaged us for nothing. Since there is no true way to tell what might have happened they will claim they were right and then dismiss any criticism by virtue-signaling about lives vs dollars.

The likely scenario was had we only done social distancing, quarantined the sick, and protected the vulnerable we would have seen a similar number of deaths without creating the disaster we have now. This was common sense before all this started.

I wish you would run for office and solve all the problems in the country.

 

[SGK]

Let's examine the facts:

Your contention: more people died from Covid than died from the flu in the recent decade.

Fact: 80,000 people died from the flu last year in the US. CDC report:

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Disease burden of 'flu for the US for each of the last 9 seasons from the CDC itself:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

including 95% confidence intervals. The 2017-18 year was indeed bad with a mean estimate of 61,000 people. That's why 'flu is a big deal each year and huge efforts are made to reduce the burden which, with an annual 'flu vaccine, is largely avoidable. COVID-19 will clock through all years' mean 'flu death estimates by the end of the day today or tomorrow. And COVID will keep on rocking on. Despite the largest implementation of NPI we've seen in over 100 years, I think @Toby Bradshaw 's bet is looking good.

 

[SGK]

An intelligent individual cultivates his vices and enjoys them into old age. Only those gripped by fear and a desire to appease naysayers abandon the finer pleasures life has to offer.

Some lack it entirely. Enjoy your $100 glasses of wine.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Disease burden of 'flu for the US for each of the last 9 seasons from the CDC itself:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Including 95% confidence intervals. We'll clock through all years' mean estimates by the end of the day today or tomorrow. And COVID will keep one rocking on. Despite the largest implementation of NPI we've seen in over 100 years, I think @Toby Bradshaw 's bet is looking good.

We will see as the actual science begins to flow in and the fud becomes the next outrage over whose feelings Trump hurt today.

 

[SGK]

All the evidence from Europe and the UK (and we're running some weeks ahead of the US) is that most official figures understate Covid deaths. The key stats being used now in the UK are the ONS (Office of National Statistics) total weekly death figure compared to the five previous year average of the equivalent week. These figures are very accurate but take around 10 days to be collated and checked. W/e 17.04.20 has just been released and is a full 100% up over the average for the previous five years. That is around 10,000 more deaths than would be expected.

Note the two week lag



There's also been a massive drop in people going into hospital for pulmonary disorders, cancer etc.The fear is that people aren't going in for the treatment they need and that this will lead to a greater number of deaths from non-communicable diseases.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Some lack it entirely. Enjoy your $100 glasses of wine.

The intelligent individual treasures all his/her vices equally. Of course that shooting of guns thing does consume a lot of time. I've got loads developed and ready for testing but due to the shutdown of gun ranges in the Peoples Republic of Washington, no testing has taken place. Looks like my range is reopening next Thursday. Possibly in spite of the governors orders. Golf, fishing and hiking are approved to open, as if anyone on this side of the state paid any attention to the governor of Seattle on those fronts, but gun ranges were not mentioned in his ramblings. Perhaps he wants to force Bob Barr to get involved.

 

[SGK]

Let's examine the facts:


Fact: Sweden did not lock down. They even kept schools open. Their infection rate and death rate per capita is on par with their neighbors who did lock down yet their economy is not going to suffer like the rest of Europe and the US.

Err facts... So Sweden has about double the population of Denmark, Finland or Norway. Yet Sweden has 2462 deaths versus 443, 206 and 207 for Denmark, Finland and Norway respectively. Pressure is growing for a change in strategy in Sweden.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Err facts... So Sweden has about double the population of Denmark, Finland or Norway. Yet Sweden has 2462 deaths versus 443, 206 and 207 for Denmark, Finland and Norway respectively. Pressure is growing for a change in strategy in Sweden.

Population facts: Norway population: 5.4 million, Finland population: 5.5 million, Denmark population: 5.8 million total population: 16.7 million. Sweden population: 10.2 million.

Population about 50% higher in Norway, Finland and Denmark.

# of cases facts: According to Johns Hopkins: cases in Norway: 7700. cases in Finland: 5k, cases in Denmark: 9k, total cases: 21,700. cases in Sweden: 20k.

Number of cases a bit higher per capita in Sweden but Sweden did not lock down and the population now has herd immunity. The cases in the other three countries have yet to include the second wave which will happen due to the fact that the populations do not have herd immunity. Story still playing out. The true story associated with total cases will be told next spring.

Death facts: also according to Johns Hopkins, as you note, 856 between Denmark, Norway and Finland. Sweden: 2462.

Definitely higher per capita in Sweden which leads to the question you folks refuse to answer. That question is why? Clearly the death rates would correlate with number of cases rather than the approach to the lockdown. So, does Sweden have a poor quality medical system? Is the genetic makeup of the Swedes weaker than that of the other three? Are the Swedes just throwing the infected into the street to die? Are all countries following the same standards and have the same capabilities in testing and reporting? Given the homogeneity of the Scandinavian population and the high quality of the medical systems we hear about in all of those countries I think we can eliminate all but one potential explanation, reporting. But here again, given the lack of herd immunity in the other three countries, this story, as is the case with total cases is far from being told. As the quality of testing and reporting ramp up in Northern Europe and the other three countries suffer the inevitable second wave, the true story will emerge.

At this point however it looks like Sweden wins.

 

[SGK]

Lower level of testing? Your claim that the population of Sweden has herd immunity is unsubstantiated.

The death rate in Sweden is currently 23% above historical averages

 

[ronsatspokane]

Lower level of testing? Your claim that the population of Sweden has herd immunity is unsubstantiated.

The death rate in Sweden is currently 23% above historical averages

Again, why? The number of cases are roughly equal.