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COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

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If you take the "let's just let it run and go for herd immunity" you don't bother to test as much? Lower level of testing yields a lower number of confirmed cases. Sweden is nowhere near reaching herd immunity and they're largely alone in taking that strategy.
 
SGK said:
If you take the "let's just let it run and go for herd immunity" you don't bother to test as much? Lower level of testing yields a lower number of confirmed cases. Sweden is nowhere near reaching herd immunity and they're largely alone in taking that strategy.
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Ok, let's see if we can get you to focus on what you are trying to communicate. It sounds like you agree that the number of coronavirus deaths would correlate with the number of coronavirus cases. That is a good starting point. Cases being equal, now we move on to why the reported death rate in Sweden is higher than the numbers reported in Denmark, Norway and Finland. It sounds like you are saying that testing is the problem. Further than Denmark, Norway and Finland are not testing. Is that your contention?
 
I'm sure there are a lot of factors at work including things like the level of testing and population density. According to this source, Sweden lags dramatically behind Norway and Denmark in tests per capita although it is ahead of Finland.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1108867/number-of-coronavirus-tests-per-capita-in-the-nordics/

(note the lag in this data)

So Sweden conducts less tests per capita, identifies less confirmed cases per capita, imposes less restrictions, suffers greater per capita deaths. Its rate of deaths is up 23% on historical levels. Denmark, in contrast, is up 5%. It's pretty clear they are incurring a greater cost as a result of a different strategy, a strategy which politicians there are increasingly having to defend.

Even Spokane county has conducted more tests per capita than Sweden if the figure in the above link is correct. The percentages tested are minuscule when you take into account they aren't antibody tests and people who have had negative test results need to be repeatedly tested.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus
 
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SGK said:
I'm sure there are a lot of factors at work including things like the level of testing and population density. According to this source, Sweden lags dramatically behind Norway and Denmark in tests per capita although it is ahead of Finland.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1108867/number-of-coronavirus-tests-per-capita-in-the-nordics/

(note the lag in this data)

So Sweden conducts less tests per capita, identifies less confirmed cases per capita, imposes less restrictions, suffers greater per capita deaths. Its rate of deaths is up 23% on historical levels. Denmark, in contrast, is up 5%. It's pretty clear they are incurring a greater cost as a result of a different strategy, a strategy which politicians there are increasingly having to defend.

Even Spokane county has conducted more tests per capita than Sweden if the figure in the above link is correct. The percentages tested are minuscule when you take into account they aren't antibody tests and people who have had negative test results need to be repeatedly tested.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus
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So it is your contention that the death rates are relatively equal but Sweden is grossly under reporting the number of cases. Is that correct? If so, that is possible. Again, time will tell. As the second wave hits Denmark, Norway and Finland and the quality of testing and reporting improves the numbers should normalize such that a valid comparison can be made. It is my contention that given the data we have so far, Sweden is the winner.

On a side note, Between north Idaho and Spokane we only have about 400 cases. That is out of a population of about 1-1.5 million in the greater area (depending on ones definition of what constitutes the inland empire as we call it).
 
SGK said:
Despite the largest implementation of NPI we've seen in over 100 years, I think @Toby Bradshaw 's bet is looking good.
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I think it will be close, but considering that there were just 4,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. at the beginning of this month, and that the appetite for lockdown seems to be declining by the hour, I still think we could get to 200K by Christmas. Daily deaths continue to grow exponentially at 3-4% per day, doubling time 2-3 weeks.

BTW, I still hope to lose my bet.
 
Toby Bradshaw said:
I think it will be close, but considering that there were just 4,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. at the beginning of this month, and that the appetite for lockdown seems to be declining by the hour, I still think we could get to 200K by Christmas. Daily deaths continue to grow exponentially at 3-4% per day, doubling time 2-3 weeks.

BTW, I still hope to lose my bet.
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You very well may be right. Will this be a new war casualty record?
 
rwj said:
How many do the already known influenza strains kill each year?
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Posted several times in this thread already:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

It shouldn't be a surprise that SARS-CoV-2 is killing many more people than the seasonal flu. It has a basic reproduction rate ~2x higher, a case fatality rate at least 5x higher, no vaccine, and a naive population of almost 8 billion human hosts.

Just this month about the same number of people will have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. as died from influenza in the worst year of seasonal flu over the past decade.

Edit: Hot off the press from Reuters.
 
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Toby Bradshaw said:
I think it will be close, but considering that there were just 4,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. at the beginning of this month, and that the appetite for lockdown seems to be declining by the hour, I still think we could get to 200K by Christmas. Daily deaths continue to grow exponentially at 3-4% per day, doubling time 2-3 weeks.

BTW, I still hope to lose my bet.
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We've had 400 total cases between Spokane and North Idaho. Population in the area is 1-1.5 million. We just found out that the governor of WA is extending the lockdown. He is clearly not the governor of Washington, he is the governor of Seattle. I don't think he realizes that no one is paying attention to him. The bottom line is that most government functionaries do not have the courage to end the lockdown. Some, quite frankly, do not want to. They do not want the economy to recover. I think everyone knows who they are and why they want to tank the economy. Ending the lockdown will be up to the citizens as a result. The citizens in this area are already getting it done.
 
ronsatspokane said:
We've had 400 total cases between Spokane and North Idaho.
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Places like Spokane County don't really matter much to anyone except those that live there. 523k people scattered over 1,781 square miles, a population density of less than 300 people per square mile. (Contrast that with Manhattan which has 67k per square mile.) If all 353 currently confirmed cases died it wouldn't even move the needle. Same if 5% of the population there died. So yeah, it's not about you. And yeah it can feel tough when Statewide edicts feel overly onerous when you're sitting on your couch in the countryside. Get over it.

If you think a lock-down and economic recovery are mutually exclusive you don't know your economic history. The 1918 flu pandemic showed that States which instituted the toughest measures to stamp out the pandemic recovered faster and stronger than States which limped along with a continued problem.
 
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Really good article in today's FT (for those that have access to a subscription) on how US hospitals have been impacted by COVID. "How coronavirus broke America's healthcare system?" Well worth a read to understand how a large number of US hospitals are under massive financial strain, while some well-funded groups are much better prepared.
 
SGK said:
Places like Spokane County don't really matter much to anyone except those that live there. 523k people scattered over 1,781 square miles, a population density of less than 300 people per square mile. (Contrast that with Manhattan which has 67k per square mile.) If all 353 currently confirmed cases died it wouldn't even move the needle. Same if 5% of the population there died. So yeah, it's not about you. And yeah it can feel tough when Statewide edicts feel overly onerous when you're sitting on your couch in the countryside. Get over it.

If you think a lock-down and economic recovery are mutually exclusive you don't know your economic history. The 1918 flu pandemic showed that States which instituted the toughest measures to stamp out the pandemic recovered faster and stronger than States which limped along with a continued problem.
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You are correct, the folks who occupy the bulk of the US land mass do not matter. It's all about New York. Too bad De Blasio hates Trump to the point that he was telling New York residents not to worry and suggested that they go see a movie. He even recommended the movies to see. This was on the day the NBA was shutting down their season due to coronavirus. Imagine what the results would have been had he followed Trump and the CDC's advice. Hell, De Blasio was even caught violating his own stay at home orders yesterday as he drove from his home to take a walk in the park with his wife. Did you see the crowds gathered as the Navy hospital ship arrived in New York harbor? WTF? As you point out, New York is far more vulnerable to these kinds of events given their population density and you would think that they would be prepared with equipment and supplies as well as ready to implement prudent precautions earlier than any other region. Sadly, that was not the case and did not happen. CDC guidelines were being enforced in my area when we had 25 cases. New Yorkers were still partying when they had 10,000 cases. The result was predictable.

As far as economic recovery, I think it will bounce back rapidly much to the consternation of the political left. I'm confident enough in that belief that I was buying stocks at near the bottom. Those investments are up significantly even before yesterday's jump. If it drops again I'll be back in buying mode.
 
SGK said:
Really good article in today's FT (for those that have access to a subscription) on how US hospitals have been impacted by COVID. "How coronavirus broke America's healthcare system?" Well worth a read to understand how a large number of US hospitals are under massive financial strain, while some well-funded groups are much better prepared.
Click to expand...

The interesting thing about it is that the revenue crunch is due to stopping all but emergency procedures and covid cases. Hospitals and labs are furloughing employee's due to lack of business. That lack of business is bankrupting many hospital systems.
 
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