COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[JimT]

Not sure he realizes that with the numbers coming in from the antibody tests (particularly those in Santa Clara county) that the death rate from Corona virus may end up being lower than the common flu. Contagious it is but also looking like it is not nearly as lethal as the models suggested or as the MSM has portrayed. As far as contagion, there are models that show the flu to be less contagious but there has never been wide spread antibody testing, the likes of what is happening here, to determine just how accurate the models are. As the real science proceeds in the years ahead it will be interesting to see how they really do compare. In the meantime a lot of lessons have been learned. The immediate question being, will those lessons have a positive effect on public policy. As in, will we bring the supply chain home, make sure that the stockpiles actually have product, fire the lying fucktards who are threatening to kill Americans unless their leftist agenda is implemented? I have my doubts...

In a little under 2 months we have had more deaths from this virus (USA) than any FULL Flu season in the past 10 years except maybe 2017-2018 and we will eclipse that soon. I would also point out that flu deaths are estimated whereas Covid-19 deaths have almost all been documented by actual testing.

REMEMBER, this is with DRACONIAN measures that if not taken would have resulted in significant multiples of the death toll.

We have learned a lot and I am hoping we will begin to target the spread in a more pinpointed way and get the economy back up and running.

For all the discoveries you point out in your posts you neglect the primary one no one seems to want to address!! Our healthcare system (Insurance) does nothing to incentivize good lifestyle choices!! Almost all the deaths are associated with conditions that are preventable and are the result of people’s irresponsible choices!!

 

[Highpower-FClass]

In a little under 2 months we have had more deaths from this virus (USA) than any FULL Flu season in the past 10 years except maybe 2017-2018 and we will eclipse that soon. I would also point out that flu deaths are estimated whereas Covid-19 deaths have almost all been documented by actual testing.

REMEMBER, this is with DRACONIAN measures that if not taken would have resulted in significant multiples of the death toll.

^^^ this

One of my concerns is that the fact that the annual COVID-19 death toll will (hopefully) end up being in the 100K range will be used to spin the yarn that 'this was just like a somewhat worse flu, everyone completely overreacted and that was the real travesty'.

Let's say that we had done nothing, then apply New York to Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, Los Angeles and any number of other large metropolitan area and it would have been orders of magnitudes worse.

The annual death toll will hopefully only be 2-3 times that of a bad flu season exactly because action was taken and drastic measures were implemented. Let's not pretend otherwise.

We have learned a lot and I am hoping we will begin to target the spread in a more pinpointed way and get the economy back up and running.

^^^ this too

It seems it should be possible to restart things by focusing on protecting those most vulnerable. In Sweden they have requested that anyone over 70 self-quarantine. And by the looks of it, that request is being followed.

Perhaps similar measures could be enacted over here until a vaccine is (hopefully) in place, while continuing general measures such as social distancing wherever possible, avoiding handshakes as greetings, good hand hygiene, staying home if feeling sick etc. Attending big sporting events, concerts and the like will probably be out of the question until there is a vaccine in place, or herd immunity, whichever comes first. But it would seem enough is known at this point to have more targeted actions than blanket shutdowns, especially targeted actions based on the 'situation on the ground'.

 

[Laurie]

So far Public Health England has yet to find a reliable Covid antigen test kit - some failed entirely and the best had a c. 30% 'wrong-side' failure rate. So, one has to ask questions about the basis of any conclusions drawn from antibody testing. (Tests in China report that antibodies rarely appear in recovered victims under the age of 40 and rise steadily thereafter for older people.).

Similar concerns arise with any statistics based on recorded Covid death figures. All the evidence from Europe and the UK (and we're running some weeks ahead of the US) is that most official figures understate Covid deaths. The key stats being used now in the UK are the ONS (Office of National Statistics) total weekly death figure compared to the five previous year average of the equivalent week. These figures are very accurate but take around 10 days to be collated and checked. W/e 17.04.20 has just been released and is a full 100% up over the average for the previous five years. That is around 10,000 more deaths than would be expected.

Around a third of the 'excess deaths' didn't have Covid recorded as the cause of death. Reasons are likely to be a mix of under-recording of 'Covid', and so-called 'indirect' or 'collateral damage' deaths from Covid - where people haven't sought medical help because of the pandemic and/or their treatment for other conditions has been suspended for one Covid related reason or another.

What makes a doubling of the death rate yet starker is that until Covid kicked in, the 2019 / 2020 winter death rates were shaping up to be well under the past trend. We have had one of the mildest winters and warmest early springs ever recorded in the British Isles and a fairly benign winter flu 'season'. There have been a few additional homicides and suicides during the lockdown, but countering that, a 60% reduction in road traffic and near national closure of industrial plant should have reduced deaths from these sources.

 

[ronsatspokane]

In a little under 2 months we have had more deaths from this virus (USA) than any FULL Flu season in the past 10 years except maybe 2017-2018 and we will eclipse that soon. I would also point out that flu deaths are estimated whereas Covid-19 deaths have almost all been documented by actual testing.

REMEMBER, this is with DRACONIAN measures that if not taken would have resulted in significant multiples of the death toll.

We have learned a lot and I am hoping we will begin to target the spread in a more pinpointed way and get the economy back up and running.

For all the discoveries you point out in your posts you neglect the primary one no one seems to want to address!! Our healthcare system (Insurance) does nothing to incentivize good lifestyle choices!! Almost all the deaths are associated with conditions that are preventable and are the result of people’s irresponsible choices!!

Let's examine the facts:

Your contention: more people died from Covid than died from the flu in the recent decade.

Fact: 80,000 people died from the flu last year in the US. CDC report:

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Your contention: Would have been worse were it not for the lockdown.

Fact: Sweden did not lock down. They even kept schools open. Their infection rate and death rate per capita is on par with their neighbors who did lock down yet their economy is not going to suffer like the rest of Europe and the US. All the experts who recommended the lockdown warned that Sweden was going to blow up. Hasn't happened.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ersial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

Your contention: There are no incentives in the US to maintain a healthy lifestyle.

Fact: Let freedom ring. We have the freedom to pick our own poisons. I smoke, I drink, I drive to fast, I like to race motorcycles, I'm 20 lbs overweight in spite of regular exercise (probably due to a fatty diet of meat for the main course followed by a desert of more meat) and I shoot guns. Couple that with the fact that I'm white, I'm a boomer and I tend to the libertarian viewpoint and I am that devil the left tells you about. Should the leftist agenda ever be fully implemented your wish will likely come true. Just as the communist Chinese government mandated public calisthenics prior to their discovery of capitalism, we will likely be forced to do that at the point of a gun as well. They might just shoot my ass and save themselves the trouble.

Think I'll run back out to the shop and have another smoke. Maybe chase it down with a beer. The MSM tells me that Covid is going to kill me and they might be right. Might as well as enjoy my final moments on this earth.

 

[ronsatspokane]

So far Public Health England has yet to find a reliable Covid antigen test kit - some failed entirely and the best had a c. 30% 'wrong-side' failure rate. So, one has to ask questions about the basis of any conclusions drawn from antibody testing. (Tests in China report that antibodies rarely appear in recovered victims under the age of 40 and rise steadily thereafter for older people.).

Similar concerns arise with any statistics based on recorded Covid death figures. All the evidence from Europe and the UK (and we're running some weeks ahead of the US) is that most official figures understate Covid deaths. The key stats being used now in the UK are the ONS (Office of National Statistics) total weekly death figure compared to the five previous year average of the equivalent week. These figures are very accurate but take around 10 days to be collated and checked. W/e 17.04.20 has just been released and is a full 100% up over the average for the previous five years. That is around 10,000 more deaths than would be expected.

Around a third of the 'excess deaths' didn't have Covid recorded as the cause of death. Reasons are likely to be a mix of under-recording of 'Covid', and so-called 'indirect' or 'collateral damage' deaths from Covid - where people haven't sought medical help because of the pandemic and/or their treatment for other conditions has been suspended for one Covid related reason or another.

What makes a doubling of the death rate yet starker is that until Covid kicked in, the 2019 / 2020 winter death rates were shaping up to be well under the past trend. We have had one of the mildest winters and warmest early springs ever recorded in the British Isles and a fairly benign winter flu 'season'. There have been a few additional homicides and suicides during the lockdown, but countering that, a 60% reduction in road traffic and near national closure of industrial plant should have reduced deaths from these sources.

The answer you seek can be found in another thread on this site:

 

[JimT]

Let's examine the facts:

Your contention: more people died from Covid than died from the flu in the recent decade.

Fact: 80,000 people died from the flu last year in the US. CDC report:

https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

Your contention: Would have been worse were it not for the lockdown.

Fact: Sweden did not lock down. They even kept schools open. Their infection rate and death rate per capita is on par with their neighbors who did lock down yet their economy is not going to suffer like the rest of Europe and the US. All the experts who recommended the lockdown warned that Sweden was going to blow up. Hasn't happened.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ersial-covid-19-strategy-is-proving-effective

Your contention: There are no incentives in the US to maintain a healthy lifestyle.

Fact: Let freedom ring. We have the freedom to pick our own poisons. I smoke, I drink, I drive to fast, I like to race motorcycles, I'm 20 lbs overweight in spite of regular exercise (probably due to a fatty diet of meat for the main course followed by a desert of more meat) and I shoot guns. Couple that with the fact that I'm white, I'm a boomer and I tend to the libertarian viewpoint and I am that devil the left tells you about. Should the leftist agenda ever be fully implemented your wish will likely come true. Just as the communist Chinese government mandated public calisthenics prior to their discovery of capitalism, we will likely be forced to do that at the point of a gun as well. They might just shoot my ass and save themselves the trouble.

Think I'll run back out to the shop and have another smoke. Maybe chase it down with a beer. The MSM tells me that Covid is going to kill me and they might be right. Might as well as enjoy my final moments on this earth.

You are the perfect example of why the Sweden route would not have worked in the US. Well, maybe there are a few other types Sweden doesn’t have that would have added to our toll, but you are right there at the top!

I am all for freedom, I just think fat frickers who smoke should pay more.

BTW, started smoking my senior year of college while studying for the CPA exam. Smoked for around 8 years. Finally, my intelligence took over and I quit cold turkey.

I also certainly regret Washington did not go the Sweden route!!

 

[Highpower-FClass]

Fact: Sweden did not lock down. They even kept schools open. Their infection rate and death rate per capita is on par with their neighbors who did lock down yet their economy is not going to suffer like the rest of Europe and the US. All the experts who recommended the lockdown warned that Sweden was going to blow up. Hasn't happened.

To say that Sweden's infection and death rate is on par with their neighbors is incorrect. Sweden has 21 deaths per 100K residents compared to 7, 4 and 4 compared to Denmark, Norway and Finland respectively. So 3 times that of Denmark and 5 times that of Norway and Denmark.

I am rooting for Sweden. I am originally from Sweden and have family who live there, but there is no doubt that they have higher infection and death rates compared to their neighboring countries who all instituted harsher measures and lockdowns.

An interesting cultural aspect of Sweden compared to a lot of other places is that there are virtually no multi-generational households (except for immigrant communities). You move out from your parents when you're 18-20 years old and when you get old you move to a home for elderly living. Good, bad or indifferent it's just how it is over there. I do think this makes a big difference for something like COVID-19 in that it makes it easier to protect the vulnerable population.

 

[ronsatspokane]

To say that Sweden's infection and death rate is on par with their neighbors is incorrect. Sweden has 21 deaths per 100K residents compared to 7, 4 and 4 compared to Denmark, Norway and Finland respectively. So 3 times that of Denmark and 5 times that of Norway and Denmark.

I am rooting for Sweden. I am originally from Sweden and have family who live there, but there is no doubt that they have higher infection and death rates compared to their neighboring countries who all instituted harsher measures and lockdowns.

An interesting cultural aspect of Sweden compared to a lot of other places is that there are virtually no multi-generational households (except for immigrant communities). You move out from your parents when you're 18-20 years old and when you get old you move to a home for elderly living. Good, bad or indifferent it's just how it is over there. I do think this makes a big difference for something like COVID-19 in that it makes it easier to protect the vulnerable population.

Your contention runs 180 degrees in the opposite direction of what the reports we are seeing in the US are saying. As the article indicates. Do you have reputable sources?

 

[ronsatspokane]

I am all for freedom, I just think fat frickers who smoke should pay more.

BTW, started smoking my senior year of college while studying for the CPA exam. Smoked for around 8 years. Finally, my intelligence took over and I quit cold turkey.

I also certainly regret Washington did not go the Sweden route!!

I think IV drug users, those who live dangerous lifestyles and those still living in their mothers basements should pay more. At least their mothers should be forced to pay more.

 

[JimT]

I think IV drug users, those who live dangerous lifestyles and those still living in their mothers basements should pay more. At least their mothers should be forced to pay more.

Ron, by anyone’s definition you live a fat, dangerous, lifestyle so maybe your mother can kick in the difference. Surely, you don’t think I should subsidize your socialist/government provided healthcare???

 

[Laurie]

Fact: Sweden did not lock down. They even kept schools open. Their infection rate and death rate per capita is on par with their neighbors who did lock down yet their economy is not going to suffer like the rest of Europe and the US. All the experts who recommended the lockdown warned that Sweden was going to blow up. Hasn't happened.

Really? Here are total Covid deaths per 1,000,000 population for the Nordic countries as at 28th April:

Finland ........... 36
Norway .......... 38
Denmark ........ 75
Sweden .......... 233

showing it is worse affected than its neighbours which have similar population densities and lifestyles, recorded their initial cases around the same time, but differ in their having adopted lockdown regimes.

It was thought both within Sweden (and elsewhere too) that Sweden's housing demographics would offer it a greater degree of protection than seen in any other western country. It has an abnormally high number of single occupant dwellings and the average occupation per property is very low by European standards. This may have helped avoid some of the high R-zero values seen elsewhere (Italy and other Mediterranean countries 'suffer' in this respect in that it is common for several generations of a single family to live together), but apparently not as much as was hoped.

 

[ronsatspokane]

You contention runs 180 degrees in the opposite direction of what the reports we are seeing in the US are saying. As the article indicates. Do you have reputable sources?

P.S. I'm one of the world foremost experts in quitting smoking. I've done it hundreds of times.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Ron, by anyone’s definition you live a fat, dangerous, lifestyle so maybe your mother can kick in the difference.

I'm am that devil the left tells you about.

 

[JimT]

I'm am that devil the left tells you about.

No, you are the freeloader the right tells me about!!

 

[JimT]

P.S. I'm one of the world foremost experts in quitting smoking. I've done it hundreds of times.

I did it once, it’s a fine mix of intelligence and willpower!

 

[Highpower-FClass]

You contention runs 180 degrees in the opposite direction of what the reports we are seeing in the US are saying. As the article indicates. Do you have reputable sources?

Well, depends on whether you read Swedish or not

Here are current stats as continuously published by a Swedish newspaper. The source of the data for Sweden is from the Swedish 'institute of health' (the Swedish health authorities). The numbers from other countries are from 'Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins-universitetet' as reported to them by other countries.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/y3rdeA/coronaviruset-har-ar-de-senaste-siffrorna

If you look in the section called 'Bekräftat antal smittade och döda i Sverige' (confirmed infections and deaths in Sweden) and select 'Per 100 000' you can see a total of 23,1 deaths per 100 000 for Sweden

If you scroll down to the section that says 'Dödsfallen över tid – länders utveckling jämfört med Sverige' (deaths over time - other countries compared to Sweden) and select 'Per 100 000' you will see the Swedish deaths per 100K compared to other countries. Denmark - 7.4. Finland - 3.5. Norway - 3.9.

I see now Laurie beat me to it...

 

[ronsatspokane]

Really? Here are total Covid deaths per 1,000,000 population for the Nordic countries as at 28th April:

Finland ........... 36
Norway .......... 38
Denmark ........ 75
Sweden .......... 233

showing it is worse affected than its neighbours which have similar population densities and lifestyles, recorded their initial cases around the same time, but differ in their having adopted lockdown regimes.

It was thought both within Sweden (and elsewhere too) that Sweden's housing demographics would offer it a greater degree of protection than seen in any other western country. It has an abnormally high number of single occupant dwellings and the average occupation per property is very low by European standards. This may have helped avoid some of the high R-zero values seen elsewhere (Italy and other Mediterranean countries 'suffer' in this respect in that it is common for several generations of a single family to live together), but apparently not as much as was hoped.

So is it your contention that the quality of health care in Sweden is significantly worse than that of other Scandinavian countries? The numbers you are reporting would certainly indicate that the quality of medical care in Sweden is far worse than many third world countries.

 

[ronsatspokane]

I did it once, it’s a fine mix of intelligence and willpower!

An intelligent individual cultivates his vices and enjoys them into old age. Only those gripped by fear and a desire to appease naysayers abandon the finer pleasures life has to offer.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Well, depends on whether you read Swedish or not

Here are current stats as continuously published by a Swedish newspaper. The source of the data for Sweden is from the Swedish 'institute of health' (the Swedish health authorities). The numbers from other countries are from 'Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins-universitetet' as reported to them by other countries.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/y3rdeA/coronaviruset-har-ar-de-senaste-siffrorna

If you look in the section called 'Bekräftat antal smittade och döda i Sverige' (confirmed infections and deaths in Sweden) and select 'Per 100 000' you can see a total of 23,1 deaths per 100 000 for Sweden

If you scroll down to the section that says 'Dödsfallen över tid – länders utveckling jämfört med Sverige' (deaths over time - other countries compared to Sweden) and select 'Per 100 000' you will see the Swedish deaths per 100K compared to other countries. Denmark - 7.4. Finland - 3.5. Norway - 3.9.

I see now Laurie beat me to it...

So it is also your contention that the Swedes are lacking in basic medical capabilities?

 

[Highpower-FClass]

So is it your contention that the quality of health care in Sweden is significantly worse than that of other Scandinavian countries? The numbers you are reporting would certainly indicate that the quality of medical care in Sweden is far worse than many third world countries.

Come on Ron, you were doing ok without resorting to trolling

The numbers indicate that there was a significant difference in infection and death rates from enacting lockdowns versus not. But you knew that.