COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

Just to put things in perspective, according to data published on Jan 19, 2020, deaths from the seasonal flu in Italy had then totaled 240, slightly less than the 258 expected. The flu season peaks in January in Italy.

Deaths from COVID 19 are so far 4,825 - 793 today alone - with a further 42,681 cases that haven't yet recovered, of which 2,857 are in intensive care. Rather worse than a "tougher flu season than normal."

PS: it's only been 4 weeks since the first confirmed case, a man in his 30s, was identified in northwestern Italy.

 

[INTJ]

Do you think people in Italy would feel that way? You don't think more deaths in just 3 weeks than road deaths over the entire year (3,325 in 2018) wouldn't have sparked some questions?

And, yes, the extraordinary measures needed to combat something like this have a big economic impact. And that's why state and central bank action is so important. The alternative is millions dead.

I am not talking about Italy and feelings are NEVER a valid reason for making a decision.

This economic slowdown and stimulus will case a lot more damage to the US than the virus. No one panicked in 2009-2010 with H1N1 which infected 60 million Americans, hospitalized 275,000, and killed almost 12,500. Wuhan Flu is nowhere near that bad.

Only 1% of those infected develop serious symptoms, and most people will not be infected. Of course cases will increase as more people are tested, but 93% of those who think they have it don't. The current panic is simply not warranted.

I don't have a huge problem with a two-week national quarantine, but going beyond that is idiotic. After this two weeks ends in April, we need to get back to as much normalcy as possible. We do need keep those at high risk quarantined, continue to practice social distance, and probably keep the travel bans from locations outside the US in place. We do need to get the meds out there and fast track the vaccine.

However, if these knuckleheads keep the US shut down for "weeks and weeks" as has been discussed, a nasty flu virus will be the least of our problems--that is not even disputable.......

 

[SGK]

Wuhan Flu is nowhere near that bad.

Only 1% of those infected develop serious symptoms, and most people will not be infected. Of course cases will increase as more people are tested, but 93% of those who think they have it don't. The current panic is simply not warranted.

You are so off-base with your facts it isn't funny. Good luck with that.

 

[JimT]

I am not talking about Italy and feelings are NEVER a valid reason for making a decision.

This economic slowdown and stimulus will case a lot more damage to the US than the virus. No one panicked in 2009-2010 with H1N1 which infected 60 million Americans, hospitalized 275,000, and killed almost 12,500. Wuhan Flu is nowhere near that bad.

Only 1% of those infected develop serious symptoms, and most people will not be infected. Of course cases will increase as more people are tested, but 93% of those who think they have it don't. The current panic is simply not warranted.

I don't have a huge problem with a two-week national quarantine, but going beyond that is idiotic. After this two weeks ends in April, we need to get back to as much normalcy as possible. We do need keep those at high risk quarantined, continue to practice social distance, and probably keep the travel bans from locations outside the US in place. We do need to get the meds out there and fast track the vaccine.

However, if these knuckleheads keep the US shut down for "weeks and weeks" as has been discussed, a nasty flu virus will be the least of our problems--that is not even disputable.......

I don’t understand how you think it’s valid to compare H1N1 statistics to what is happening in the early stages of the current pandemic.
Listen to the experts not the high school dropouts who have a blog or a YouTube channel.

 

[INTJ]

You are so off-base with your facts it isn't funny. Good luck with that.

Resist making insults, read the info at the links I posted, then attempt to counter those arguments logically if you are able.

 

[INTJ]

I don’t understand how you think it’s valid to compare H1N1 statistics to what is happening in the early stages of the current pandemic.
Listen to the experts not the high school dropouts who have a blog or a YouTube channel.

Resist making insults, read the info at the links I posted, then attempt to counter those arguments logically if you are able.

Oh yeah, Powerline is not run by high school dropouts.......

 

[Brians356]

Oh yeah, Powerline is not run by high school dropouts.......

Three out of the four Powerline contributors are Dartmouth law grads and successful attorneys near retirement age now. The fourth is currently a resident government policy scholar at U.C. Berkeley. All are staunch gun rights defenders. Powerline just reached the 1 billion page views milestone.
-

 

[SGK]

Resist making insults, read the info at the links I posted, then attempt to counter those arguments logically if you are able.

I did not toss an insult. I do, however, believe you are grossly wrong. I wish you luck with your view.

Your first "reference" relies on (in its on words)

Ginn is not a scientist or a doctor, but he seems like a capable numbers cruncher and analyst. Moreover, he marshals views of medical and health professionals.

I think his piece is worthy of your consideration. However, as with just about everything written on this subject, it should not be considered definitive. At this point, some level of skepticism is almost always in order.

UPDATE BY PAUL: Medium has taken down Ginn’s post. It says the post “is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules.” Whatever that means in this context.

I prefer to use the work of one of the (if not the) most pre-eminent specialists in this field, Dr Neil Ferguson of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, Imperial College London. His team's study is driving policy response across much of the western world.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Italy is ahead of the US with respect to this outbreak. It was the first country outside of China to suffer an outbreak. The first case was recorded on Feb 20. They have already suffered deaths that dwarf the typical annual flu season.

So no, I do not think that if this thing were left unchecked that we'd just think it a slightly worse than normal 'flu season.

I could go on through your other references and points but it's just not worth doing so.

 

[JimT]

Resist making insults, read the info at the links I posted, then attempt to counter those arguments logically if you are able.

Oh yeah, Powerline is not run by high school dropouts.......

I’ll read information posted by SGK and Toby Bradshaw which are unbiased and scientifically based, yours not so much.

 

[bigstick6017555]

https://www.oann.com/u-s-virologist-on-covid-19-this-will-end-but-expect-more/

We can all sit here and and give all the opinions we want, disagree or agree, it will not change a thing. Until the people of this planet finally realize and understand, these things are not going to go away. The problem that nobody wants to address or admit is, there are to many people on this planet plain and simple. Keep on the population growth of the world and this will be a problem on a regular basis. If you listen you will hear this mentioned more and more, sadly the words are not heard. The human race has messed with natural selection way to much.

 

[SGK]

Wuhan Flu is nowhere near that bad.

Only 1% of those infected develop serious symptoms, and most people will not be infected.

Contrast this statement versus the views of a specialist like Dr Ferguson and his team:



IFR = infection fatality ratio

 

[Olde Man]

I am a little confused. It would seem that the vast majority of members on this forum would take this subject far more seriously. We are the older generation at most risk that the average working stiff, trying to raise a family, is trying to protect by staying home and giving up wages.

 

[SGK]

Some people have to be smacked around the head with facts and scientific analysis a few times before comprehension sets in. Unfortunately that also applied to President Trump 2 1/2 weeks ago. Almost a week after Italy began mobilizing to deal with the threat in Lombardy he was still in denial. His Feb 26 press conference has already been compared with that of Neville Chamberlain in Sep 38 - waiving the piece of paper in the air set him up perfectly for such comparison - as he claimed the US had done a good job and the 15 cases then existing would swiftly go to zero. Fortunately, he's now on-board and the US has a lot of resources that can be mobilized. But we still face what could be an overwhelming shock to the healthcare system. And the virus doesn't care if you are patient or doctor. When the doctors and nurses start toppling things get really hard, hence calls for support in countries like the UK, as well as here, for retired or inactive doctors, medics and nurses to make themselves available.

In contrast, as soon as Singapore heard about the virus in late December they began immediately to ramp up production of testing equipment and protective gear. They understood the potential risk.

 

[370bc]

So....here is a video from Japan where their custom is to always take their shoes off before they go into a house. They seemingly have a low infection rate at this time, according to this video. Interesting points are made. What do you guys think??

Thx!

 

[JimT]

I am a little confused. It would seem that the vast majority of members on this forum would take this subject far more seriously. We are the older generation at most risk that the average working stiff, trying to raise a family, is trying to protect by staying home and giving up wages.

Yeah you would certainly think so given how this is progressing.

https://www.jpost.com/International/Israeli-doctor-in-Italy-We-no-longer-help-those-over-60-621856

 

[SGK]

Another 651 died in Italy today, thankfully less than yesterday (793). The number of active cases also seems to be growing at a slower rate 9.2% up from yesterday (versus 12.7% increase the day before).

 

[ronsatspokane]

Some people have to be smacked around the head with facts and scientific analysis a few times before comprehension sets in. Unfortunately that also applied to President Trump 2 1/2 weeks ago. Almost a week after Italy began mobilizing to deal with the threat in Lombardy he was still in denial. His Feb 26 press conference has already been compared with that of Neville Chamberlain in Sep 38 - waiving the piece of paper in the air set him up perfectly for such comparison - as he claimed the US had done a good job and the 15 cases then existing would swiftly go to zero. Fortunately, he's now on-board and the US has a lot of resources that can be mobilized. But we still face what could be an overwhelming shock to the healthcare system. And the virus doesn't care if you are patient or doctor. When the doctors and nurses start toppling things get really hard, hence calls for support in countries like the UK, as well as here, for retired or inactive doctors, medics and nurses to make themselves available.

In contrast, as soon as Singapore heard about the virus in late December they began immediately to ramp up production of testing equipment and protective gear. They understood the potential risk.

Of course we have to remember that when travel to and from China was cut off the president was called a racist and there was a bill in Congress intended to reverse the shutdown. That bill was quietly removed from the floor. Then when European travel was shutdown, he was roundly criticized. It does not matter what the response is when many in the media and Congress are looking to score political points rather than contribute to a solution. Fortunately that has changed temporarily and there has been some cooperation. I don't think that is going to last long given reports that the left is looking at this pandemic as an opportunity to implement their ideology on a permanent basis. They are now calling for nationalization of industries that produce medical equipment. That ain't going to fly. We will see but my bet is that the pissing contest will be back in full force within a week or two.

 

[SGK]

The US now takes third place with confirmed cases hitting 32,644, almost half in New York

 

[SGK]

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

For those not used to looking at logarithmic plots, here's a weekly summary of verified COVID-19 cases for the U.S.:

Today: 33,276
A week ago: 3,499
Two weeks ago: 518
Three weeks ago: 74
Four weeks ago: 15

Through the magic of logarithmic growth, in the past month the number of cases has gone up more than 2,000-fold.

Who wants to predict what the number will be a week from today? A week after that? A month from now?

As of today, here are the COVID-19 fatality rates for the 10 countries with the highest number of confirmed cases. Of these countries, only China has more resolved cases (recovery or death) than active cases, so these death rates (deaths per confirmed case) are underestimates.

Country Cases Deaths Deaths/Cases
China 81432 3274 4.0%
Italy 59138 5476 9.3%
US 33276 417 1.3%
Spain 28768 1772 6.2%
Germany 24873 94 0.4%
Iran 21638 1685 7.8%
France 16044 674 4.2%
S Korea 8897 104 1.2%
Switzerland 7245 98 1.4%
UK 5741 282 4.9%

Anyone who thinks that SARS-CoV-2 is "just like the seasonal flu" is in denial.