COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

I keep up with the UK news and still prefer Radio X over anything in the US. (I'm not at all suggesting that station is a news station - but Johnny Vaughn is brilliant.) Most of my friends are in London. And, yes, last weekend was beyond ridiculous. I loved it when one friend, who is in lockdown in London, summarized for the millennials Johnson's recent speech: "Stay at home you twats!"

Mortality rates calculated from confirmed cases are of course subject to the amount of testing which has been woeful in both the UK and the US. Hence estimates such as those by Dr Neil Ferguson for eventual overall mortality are dramatically lower. Early mortality rates do, however, reflect the chilling, rather decent probability of death of those in hospital now depending on age. And when the healthcare system is overrun and has to ration ventilators, things get worse. NY state is getting slammed with already 23,000 confirmed cases. I haven't heard how many of those cases are in hospital and of those how many need intensive care. But apparently New York only has circa 6000 ventilators.

According to the FT, China began lockdown procedures at circa 30 deaths. A lot of the rest of the world has waited too long.

 

[Delfuego]

"Stay at home you twats!"

I like this and would like to borrow it temporarily.

 

[Delfuego]

Please watch this video. This is what would help us. Now try to imagine self-important Americans doing this. Not to mention the equipment and cooperation required.

 

[SGK]

Holy moly

 

[Laurie]

And when the healthcare system is overrun and has to ration ventilators, things get worse.

It's reported here that this is one reason why the elderly mortality rates are so high in Italy's Lombardy region - with intensive care / ventilator availability having been overwhelmed some time ago, triage on arriving cases sees most (all?) Italian elderly patients not being treated other than I presume with palliatives.

As well as being a heavily air-polluted region (Lombardy), it's also reported that an unusually high by western standards percentage of the Italian population are smokers. If the British (and US?) situation applies, that will apply to the elderly more than young or middle-aged people. (Both pollution and smoker levels also apply to Wuhan province.)

There is an article in today's Daily Telegraph newspaper that further analysis of early Chinese Coronavirus deaths has raised the younger population segments' mortality rates significantly and also very young children (under a year) saw a much higher mortality rate than was previously thought. It's the first time I've seen such claims and they may turn out to be incorrect or of no significance, but I suspect that as time goes by, many early beliefs will turn out to be either skewed by local population / lifestyle factors and/or plain wrong.

 

[spclark]

Wisconsin’s Safer @ Home order goes into effect in 18 hours.

Per the document, scheduled to last 30 days.

Keep up with the conversations here. Only means I have of getting a wide-ranging viewpoint on what’s going down besides various media outlets.

Some of which I trust (but verify, if at all possible!!) more than others.

 

[SGK]

Just read these statistics for New York

As of Tuesday morning, 25,665 confirmed cases with 3,234 people hospitalised and 756 in intensive care units.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

Just read these statistics for New York

As of Tuesday morning, 25,665 confirmed cases with 3,234 people hospitalised and 756 in intensive care units.

And, in other news, after 2 days of declining daily deaths in Italy that gave a glimmer of hope that its lockdown had resulted in turning the corner, so far today Italy had its second-highest number of deaths in one day (743). Italy already has twice as many COVID-19 deaths as China, but probably won't catch up to China in number of cases until later this week.

 

[Laurie]

And, in other news, after 2 days of declining daily deaths in Italy that gave a glimmer of hope that its lockdown had resulted in turning the corner, so far today Italy had its second-highest number of deaths in one day (743).

That's not what the BBC and other trusted media outlets are saying. At 743 deaths, that's 141 up on the day before which in its turn was considerably higher than the day before ... and so on.

What has fallen over the last two days, but not by great numbers, is the daily total of new cases being recorded. This - if it is the start of a trend which is what is hoped but is too early to be certain - will see daily deaths start to decline around a week or 10 days from now. If infections / admissions fall low enough, in theory the death rate will then decline dramatically as every new admission will have access to an IC bed and ventilator. However, by that stage, the weakest link is likely to be hospital staff through exhaustion and reduction in numbers through them being ill or even dying due to weeks of continuous exposure.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

Data on Italy from worldometers.info/coronavirus/. Both new cases and deaths show the same pattern.

Date/New Daily Cases/New Daily Deaths
19 Mar 5322 427
20 Mar 5986 627
21 Mar 6557 793
22 Mar 5560 651
23 Mar 4789 601
24 Mar 5249 743

Speaking from a U.S. perspective, it's unsettling that Italy had more people die from COVID-19 just today than have died in the U.S. since the beginning of the pandemic.

 

[INTJ]

Dr Birx said it takes 8-10 weeks for the virus to peak and start resolving. That said, the curve does not follow a perfectly linear pattern. That means in a period of increase there will be occasional declines, and in a period of decrease there will be occasional increases. Italy's problem was likely the 100,000 Chinese population in Northern Italy, a direct flight from Wuhan to Milan, and a delay in implementing restrictions on that population. That and they have one of the world's oldest populations.

What I am wondering about is the 12,500 deaths, 275,000 hospitalizations, and 60 million infections of H1N1 in 2009-2010 in the US alone. If the administration had been more proactive and the press more vigilant then, perhaps those numbers could be have brought down to what we'll likely end up with COVID-19.

Regardless, all this needs to be data driven and not emotion driven.

 

[SGK]

It feels like the US, outside of New York and maybe Washington State, is still where Europe was in late February. While I wish there not be, I think there's a lot of shockers to come in the US. We won't have to wait long. 10 days ago we had just three thousand confirmed cases vs 54,893 now. 15 or so days before that it was "15 going to zero." Three weeks is a long time in exponential math land. As the legendary Fatboy Slim coined his breakthrough album, "You've Come a Long Way, Baby."

But the US hasn't even remotely locked down. Just one example of many: only now are they asking the New Yorkers that recently fled to Florida to self-quarantine. Wait until residents of certain states start calling for a ban on entry to residents of other states.

(Note the dates of filming the video linked to above. Some 2 1/2 to 3 months after things began to unfold in Hubei.)

 

[JimT]

It feels like the US, outside of New York and maybe Washington State, is still where Europe was in late February. While I wish there not be, I think there's a lot of shockers to come in the US. We won't have to wait long. 10 days ago we had just three thousand confirmed cases vs 53,660 now. 15 or so days before that it was "15 going to zero." Three weeks is a long time in exponential math land. As the legendary Fatboy Slim coined his breakthrough album, "You've Come a Long Way, Baby."

But the US hasn't even remotely locked down. Just one example of many: only now are they asking the New Yorkers that recently fled to Florida to self-quarantine. Wait until residents of certain states start calling for a ban on entry to residents of other states.

(Note the dates of filming the video linked to above. Some 2 1/2 to 3 months after things began to unfold in Hubei.)

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It’s really not a “lock down” when you allow residents to flee is it? I believe in China they actually did cordon off areas with no ingress or egress. Will be interesting to see how things progress in Sweden where they appear to be bucking the worldwide trend.

 

[ronsatspokane]

It’s really not a “lock down” when you allow residents to flee is it? I believe in China they actually did cordon off areas with no ingress or egress. Will be interesting to see how things progress in Sweden where they appear to be bucking the worldwide trend.

It seems that other places be have been seeded by those fleeing New York. Perhaps a cage around the city is in order. I think there is a movie associated with how that would play out. I'm ok with it.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

It’s really not a “lock down” when you allow residents to flee is it? I believe in China they actually did cordon off areas with no ingress or egress.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/coronavirus-china-wuhan-quarantine.html

 

[SGK]

Deaths in New York (now 271) are currently growing at a considerably faster rate than they were in Lombardia at the same point in the outbreak (as measured by days since 10 deaths). New York is rapidly approaching the point of double the number of confirmed cases than in all of Italy at the same point in the outbreak (as measured by days since 100 cases). Very sad given the advanced warning provided.

 

[JimT]

Deaths in New York (now 271) are currently growing at a considerably faster rate than they were in Lombardia at the same point in the outbreak (as measured by days since 10 deaths). New York is rapidly approaching the point of double the number of confirmed cases than in all of Italy at the same point in the outbreak (as measured by days since 100 cases). Very sad given the advanced warning provided.

New York City was doomed from the beginning. How many flights from around the world do you suppose arrived at the 3 main airports carrying infected individuals before large outbreaks even occurred in the originating countries? Do you remember the CNN headlines when Trump finally banned flights from Europe?

 

[dmoran]

Bare this aspect in mind:

The Democratic party impeached President Trump for alleged withholding financial aid to the Ukraine.
Now they themselves are holding up financial aid to the American people.

Sure hope voters reflect on all this on election days.

 

[SGK]

JimT, I believe it's a complex and emotional issue. In my opinion, a number of critical mistakes were made. Particularly in times of crisis, leadership and the character of that leadership matters. The first mistake was not to recognize the potential problem. There was denial and, worse, blame cast at the media and political opposition for creating a hoax of hype. Denial breeds mistrust and suspicions of ineptitude. The second was to cast the problem as a foreign one. The "China virus". The "Wuhan virus". Semantics can matter. In an interconnected world (which has been the case ever since one village of distant relatives of homo sapiens recognized the benefits of trading with another) viruses can cross borders easily. And, of course, actions and inaction will always be cast against the backdrop of prior behaviour. Remember the "great hoard" approaching the southern border that was going to overwhelm the country? Mistrust and even hate of foreigners was already well stirred up. Third, actions were singular (rather than a package), emotionally-driven or at least cast in emotive terms (back to my second point), poorly planned and so poorly implemented, creating confusion. This further fosters criticism and accusations of ineptitude and poor leadership.

Imagine a rather different narrative that could have happened in February let alone January (and please recognize I'm not a speech writer and drafting quickly):

"Folks this is serious. The virus which was first detected in the Hubei province of China and is now appearing in Europe, and Italy in particular, is serious. It's a serious global issue. While first detected in Asia, it is a serious issue for all of the world including us here in the US."

"We need to mobilize our preparation - and quickly. With a virus which is contagious prior to being symptomatic the rate of contagion can move incredibly swiftly and unseen. Exponentially."

"While we only have 15 confirmed cases in the US today, it is likely that those numbers will grow significantly before this is over."

"Today I'm directing the CDC [and other relevant entities] to [take x and y actions including the engagement of private industry] to immediately ramp up our ability to test for the virus. Detection is critical to our ability to isolate those carrying the virus and suppress, as much as possible, further contagion."

"In addition I've directed Mike Pence to form a COVID-19 task force comprising members of [x, y, z health, CDC etc] to advise on how best to mobilize all of the resources at our disposal, both State, Federal and private industry, to deal with the crisis. Their brief includes an examination of how best to swiftly increase our capacity of IC beds, ventilators and other front-line protective equipment that may be necessary as we deal with this.[add more. You could even imagine a bi-partisan working group to promote political and national unity] [also directed Steve Munchin to form a working party to keep this office apprised of affects on the economy etc]"

"Regrettably, as part of our preparedness I've made the difficult decision to order the closure of our airports and ports to travelers from the following countries... [add detail and timeline so that the actions can be implemented without chaos and include the UK because it's obvious to anyone that it's the biggest gateway from Europe to the US]. It's a tough call. But a necessary one while we gain preparedness."

"Dealing with this is going to require co-operation from each and every one us. China has had to implement incredibly constraining restrictions on large parts of its population in order to try to suppress the virus. Difficult measures may need to implemented throughout Europe and, quite possibly, here as well. But with swift preparation and [blah blah blah about the great potential of the US to get through this]."

 

[alby280]

Thought this was a shooting site.