COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

This is a graphic of data from the research which caused a major switch in tactics in the UK and helped accelerate efforts towards containment in the US. The research was performed by a team at Imperial College in London. Of course it depends on its assumptions and best estimated impact of them today and experts are learning more each day but this is the modeled impact of doing nothing but washing your hands (which people should do anyway). The Financial Times commented:

No study has so exhaustively detailed the transmission of the virus through the UK and US population, the overwhelming pressure it has placed on health systems, or the limited effectiveness of individual measures to check its progress.

Sobering stuff. A bit more than the 'flu. (The lead researcher on the study has now contracted COVID-19.)

I recommend reading the full article here (although I can provide a link that can only be opened just 3 times):

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/91f491e0-2679-4d31-892b-b036504a85b1

 

[rrwildlife]

https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewPodcast?id=360084272&i=1000468027968

Helps to get facts from medical professionals with experience in viruses similar to this. It's a long podcast but has a lot of interesting information.

 

[TylerFromMS]

The reaction of the population, the guidance given by experts and the controls imposed by politicians aren't panic - they're entirely logical and sensible.

You’re trolling, right? All grocery stores in my area wiped clean is sensible. Hoarding hand sanitizer and ammunition is logical. Fighting over bottled water is A-OK.

All the experts? Every single one? Don’t know if you’ve ever sat in on a thesis defense, but yeah, experts in any discipline never agree on everything. Except washing your hands. Peer-reviewed citations will be needed on your claims henceforth. Hardmode: medscape and sites like it don’t count unless they link to an actual full text database. “All of the experts” sounds a lot like a “no true Scotsman” fallacy, as well. If someone’s bubble gives them some sense of control, awesome. Otherwise, living in fear, irrational or not, is unhealthy.

Hydroxychloroquinine and azithromycin have shown efficacy in treating this virus. It was on uptodate yesterday or the day before. You should know this.

I tried to work from home but they wouldn’t let me...

 

[SGK]

Not at all. Stocking up by individuals is rational. Ammunition? Well that's a very American characteristic and a whole different discussion.

And of course theories are debated. In the UK there was considerable debate over whether to let the virus run until an element of "herd immunization" was achieved. The study from Imperial College smashed the willingness to take that risk. Of course there is debate. But the decisions being taken aren't irrational given everything that's known today. Only you said "all of the experts".

 

[ronsatspokane]

I don't understand why for this and not the flu. It's no more scary than seasonal flu, and I remember the 2018 being pretty rough in my area on 16-35 year olds, specifically on their hearts. This virus has killed 3300 people in a country of 1.3 billion. Life expectancy is longer for a western country like Italy as compared to China, hence a higher ratio of deaths compared to overall population.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm



This is the correct question. Wash your hands. Take extra precautions if immunocompromised. Simple stuff. Closing everything won't really prevent much, but it will cause panic, as it has. Call me whatever you'd like, but I haven't really changed my day to day routine. Had to drive around today for a while to find a place me and my kid could sit down and eat. I haven't been able to get turkey for my lunches at work, so that's a bummer. If you get sick, Tylenol/Advil for fever, drink as much water as you can. That's really it. Maybe tonic water. Going crazy over this is too much like Pascal's Wager for me.

Inb4 "vaccines". The same people that are clamoring for a vaccine will be the ones that tell me next year they didn't get one because "last time I got the vaccine I caught it".

Maybe not Advil. There is no science to prove it yet but experience in France is indicating that ibuprofen may actually complicate treatment and make one more susceptible to the virus. WHO has recommended staying away from it.

 

[USMCDOC]

I don't understand why anyone has turned this into anything political. Trump is NOT the problem HERE or ELSEWHERE. This Coronovirus has nothing to do with Trump. For the most part the American People are the problem. For instance, here where I'm at we have had a few confirmed cases of the Virus. The grocery store shelves were emptied in a matter of a day. I stopped by a local gun shop yesterday to pick up a set of scope rings I really needed and this store was jam packed with people buying ammo and guns. I mean I haven't seen this store that packed even a day or two before Christmas. So much for not spreading the virus around........All schools are closed for 3 weeks here. The general population is in a total frenzy!!!!



The reason people are making this about politics is because of the news media. Google "H1NI of 2009". Look at the total number of cases and total deaths. I was 26 years old in 2009 and not once was anything blown out of proportion. Food didn't fly off the shelves at the local grocery stores, schools and business' did not close. And although we won't know where the numbers will end up for the Coronovirus until this all subsides the numbers for H1N1 are astonishing.

I believe we should take this virus seriously. People will die. Especially the old and already sick. The flu kills tens of thousands of people each year. Typically the old and unhealthy. What's so scary about this virus is people are spreading it around without even knowing they have it. For me, my kids will be at home for the next 3 weeks. My wife works from home and I'm self employed. So I will work when I need to. Our freezers are full of meat from this past hunting season. We won't starve and hopefully none of us get the virus. I feel like we ALL just need to calm down and STAY home!!!!

blame the media first above all else.. the politicians next.. those that "never let a crisis go to waste".. them!

 

[SGK]

Yeah grab a pitchfork and find a scapegoat. Always makes you feel better.

 

[TylerFromMS]

Stabbing someone in the neck for bottled water is rational. From the example I provided, you said that it was rational. Outstanding.

I... I don’t know what to tell you. Pic related. Hopefully your fear mongering goes well.

 

[SGK]

Violence like that isn't acceptable behavior in any circumstances. Some people are simply bad people. People can be bad any day of the week.

Going to grocery store to grab extra supplies ahead of a crisis isn't irrational. A lot of people doing that at the same time leads to empty shelves. We experience this here every time there's a hurricane. Irrational? No. Unfortunate? Yes. Hopefully the shelves are continued to be restocked and the issue eases.

There are plenty of examples in day to day life where individuals acting rationally in their own self-interest imposes broader social costs. Hence we have "public goods".

 

[ronsatspokane]

...

So, yeah, it sucks. Economically there is likely a good argument for a quick cull of over 65 year olds in any country with a social support network. The reduced medium to long term burden on health and pension systems alone would allow a considerable reallocation of funds to / lower tax take from those sectors of the population that still contribute to the economy. But that's not a humanitarian cost anyone but the most perverted are prepared to bear. Even millennials who joke about this virus being the "boomer remover" don't want to see their grandparents dying on mass.

...

The younger generation should be reminded that the Spanish flu of 1918 impacted primarily young people. Older people had some degree of immunity due to years of exposure to a variety of organisms. This will not be the last pandemic the world faces. Those with a cavilier attitude should consider what demographic the next pandemic will target and act in accordance with what their wishes would be should they be in that demographic.

 

[Baer45]

Italy was very quick to lock down the area where the infection first appeared. Here's some more interesting stats. More than 147 million people in Europe have been told to remain in their homes except for critical movement. Imagine how effective such a ban on movement would be in the US. Luckily the US has better critical care infrastructure - for those with insurance.

View attachment 1164616

I have a daughter who works in ER at. Major Virginia hospital and NO ONE is turned down because of a lack of insurance. When there are more patients then ventilators, doctors will go by chance of survival...

 

[TylerFromMS]

I’m cavalier. Either I catch it and nothing happens, I catch it and die, or I don’t catch it. I refuse to live in fear. The people that depend on me to live appreciate this. My family won’t live in fear. It’s a virus. They run their course and either you die or get better. Simple stuff. I don’t have food for my lunches because of the irrational panic. Small businesses will die. It’s unneeded hysteria.

I’m frontline. My partners and coworkers have continued their days as normal. It might kill me. Driving into work I might die in a wreck. I might eat some dodgy seafood and catch vibrio.

 

[ronsatspokane]

I’m cavalier. Either I catch it and nothing happens, I catch it and die, or I don’t catch it. I refuse to live in fear. The people that depend on me to live appreciate this. My family won’t live in fear. It’s a virus. They run their course and either you die or get better. Simple stuff. I don’t have food for my lunches because of the irrational panic. Small businesses will die. It’s unneeded hysteria.

I’m frontline. My partners and coworkers have continued their days as normal. It might kill me. Driving into work I might die in a wreck. I might eat some dodgy seafood and catch vibrio.

There is a fundamental difference between fear and imprudence. Fear is stupidity, imprudence is potentially criminal. If you become a Typhoid Mary by spreading to others then you and others like you put us at risk of facing what Italy is facing now, overwhelming the medical system and forcing physicians to decide between who gets the ventilator and who dies. If your behavior is responsible for the death of others you will have no friends pleading your case.

My brother is treating patients on the front lines. High risk patients like drug addicts and the mentally ill. His biggest concern is contracting the virus and spreading it to others. He has already made plans and taken steps for his isolation in a fashion that protects family and friends should that happen.

 

[TylerFromMS]

Not really pleading a case or looking for friends. Hysteria is unneeded. That’s all. Disruption to everyday life is unneeded.

 

[Coyotefurharvester]

Italy is socialized,government,single payer healthcare whatever pc terms you want to use. Truth is all of the healthcare(government run)is rationed and priority of treatment is based on probably of future contributions(taxes) to the system. 65 and older will "contribute" little compared to a healthy(no previous conditions) 25yo. No country can have hospital beds and staff support for an entire population. Wash your hands, avoid contact with strangers. Take care of your family, do not expose others if you develop symptoms.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Not really pleading a case or looking for friends. Hysteria is unneeded. That’s all. Disruption to everyday life is unneeded.

I agree. I would equate Hysteria with fear, both of which are stupidity. When this all started I had my doubts. Much of that was based on reports coming out of China where it looked like the infection rate was stabilizing and the death toll was not all that high compared to the seasonal flu. Based on the data coming out of Europe and that trickling in here in the US, those reports appear to have been tainted. The data is indicating that it is spreads much easier than the flu and the mortality rate may be higher than initially indicated and that rate started out higher than the flu. Over night the total deaths in Italy surpassed the count "reported" out of China and their medical system is overwhelmed.

Prudence dictates that we do what we can to avoid that kind of scenario in the US. Shutting down travel between China and the US was prudent and it looks like it saved us from what is happening in Europe. Shutting down travel to Europe was prudent when Europe became the epicenter of the crisis. It could be argued now that it came to late given that reports of infections along the east coast and the south may have been imported from there. Now the question is, what other prudent things can we do? I think you are seeing those prudent things being implemented now.

My brother worked ER for over 30 years. He's seen it all. He's now working the medical side in an emergency mental health facility where some of the people sent there can't even communicate. He came over the other day and dropped off a couple of masks then lectured us for a half an hour. Even though the count is low here currently, he believes that it is in the community and it is spreading. Just how wide and in what kind of volume will not be known for a couple of weeks as symptoms develop. The only thing that is known is that limiting contact and following proper hygiene protocols will slow the spread. That is simple prudence and it is a time to be prudent if you value your health and the health of your family and friends.

On the bright side, it looks like a couple of anti-viral drugs are having an impact on treatment. One of them was designed for Ebola. Another has been around a long time and used to treat Malaria. The data is still to limited to be sure at this point though.

 

[SGK]

Speaking of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, I see Trump had to be corrected by the head of FDA today. (Maybe the font on the teleprinter is too small?) Here's hoping the proposed clinical trial proves useful yet is still done in a suitable fashion.

 

[Downeast]

I just can't get excited over this. Sorry, but I'm not following the gooberment/media hype on this. There are over 300 million people living in this country. Half are liberal twits that invented butt sex, veganism, gender identity, touchy-feely social media, and the rebirth of communism. Even if they all catch the bug, with a death rate of 5-10% it ain't worth worrying about. Years ago I was cheering for AIDS, but it didn't amount to much either. This virus basically kills the elderly and the weak. Nothing new there. When you reach the age of geezing like I have, all you can do is get up in the morning, pour a shot of your favorite toddy to your coffee and laugh your butt off watching the talking heads on TV. Chill out folks.

 

[SGK]

Even if they all catch the bug, with a death rate of 5-10% it ain't worth worrying about. Years ago I was cheering for AIDS, but it didn't amount to much either.

Let me be the first to say that in my opinion this is just sick. That virus has killed more than 32 million people.

 

[Downeast]

Let me be the first to say that in my opinion this is just sick. That virus has killed more than 32 million people.

There are almost 8 billion people on the planet. As a retired biologist 32 million is not significant. But I look at Homo sapiens as I would any other species and something has to curtail their growth sooner or later. I doubt that Covid-19 is the end all cure. Humans outnumber the vast majority of mammals on the planet, excluding perhaps Rodentia and 'm not sure but they may even outnumber cows and pigs. And look at the harm they do. They have contributed absolutely nothing to the planet.