COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

U.S. COVID-19 case fatality rate over time:
22 March: 1.3%
4 April: 2.7%
4 May: 5.8%
30 May: 5.8%
11 Jun (today): 5.6%

In a recent overview in the FT:

"The [IFR] depends on local circumstances but is typically in the 0.5 to 1% range. A study by Imperial College London of the epidemic in China found an IFR of 0.66 per cent. Meta-analysis by Australian epidemiologists who pulled together 25 studies around the world calculated that the average IFR was 0.64 per cent."

Way back in March Imperial College used an overall IFR of 0.9% for the purposes of their study. They stated that the 95% CI for this estimate was 0.4-1.4%.

Of course with limited testing, such as is happening in the US, the IFR of confirmed cases will be much higher. As you note, it has remained stubbornly high in the US.

 

[SGK]

On testing and estimates as to how extensive the population has been exposed, here's a link summarizing serology testing in Florida to date.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/serology/serology_latest.pdf

The level of testing is rather pathetic. 148k tests out of a population of 21.5 million. Nonetheless it is a decent sample set albeit I have no idea as to how random it is. Perhaps not very.

An overall positivity rate of 4.4%.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

In a recent overview in the FT:

"The [IFR] depends on local circumstances but is typically in the 0.5 to 1% range. A study by Imperial College London of the epidemic in China found an IFR of 0.66 per cent. Meta-analysis by Australian epidemiologists who pulled together 25 studies around the world calculated that the average IFR was 0.64 per cent."

Way back in March Imperial College used an overall IFR of 0.9% for the purposes of their study. They stated that the 95% CI for this estimate was 0.4-1.4%.

Of course with limited testing, such as is happening in the US, the IFR of confirmed cases will be much higher. As you note, it has remained stubbornly high in the US.

Infection fatality rate is not the same as case fatality rate. In the absence of thorough testing (as in the U.S.) the case fatality rate will always be higher than the infection fatality rate. CFR and IFR converge as testing increases.

Agreed that the best estimates of IFR for COVID-19 are in the 0.5-1.0% range. The recent CDC estimate of IFR=0.26% is clearly wrong (and poorly documented). The population fatality rate for COVID-19 in New York is 0.37% (31K deaths in a population of 8.4M), which is the lower bound for IFR even if everyone in New York had been infected.

Rhode Island has the highest per capita testing rate in the U.S., with 18% of the population tested. The case fatality rate there is still 5.2%. Of the 7 U.S. states that have tested at least 10% of the population (>100K tests per million), the average case fatality rate is 5.9%.

 

[SGK]

Here's the latest information for Florida. This page covers case count by age, hospitalizations by age, deaths by age and ethnicity.

 

[Gina1]

Should be interesting to see what happens after Trump's rallies. Folks from all over the country coming together, no masks, no safe distancing, and then going back home. Yikes

 

[243Mendoza]

Should be interesting to see what happens after Trump's rallies. Folks from all over the country coming, no masks, no safe distancing, and then going back home. Yikes

Should be interesting to see what happens after BlackLivesMatter riots..errrr, I mean peaceful protests?

 

[Adam in WI]

Anybody have the statistics yet for The Autonomous Zone?

 

[Brians356]

Rhode Island has the highest per capita testing rate in the U.S., with 18% of the population tested. The case fatality rate there is still 5.2%. Of the 7 U.S. states that have tested at least 10% of the population (>100K tests per million), the average case fatality rate is 5.9%.

Rhode Island also happens to be one of three states (also MN, VT) with over 80% of their Covid-19 fatalities having been in long-term care facilities.
-

 

[Brians356]

Here's something that jumps out at me while perusing WA state data: Two counties - Kitsap and Asotin.

Bustling Kitsap County is home to 271,500 souls and Naval Base Kitsap (Naval Station Bremerton and Naval Submarine Base Bangor) and a large military population.

Sleepy Asotin County, in the SE corner of the state, is home to 22,500 souls and (so I'm told) is the poorest county in the state (state tax revenue).

Almost incomprehensibly, Kitsap has seen only 2 Covid-19 deaths, the same number as Asotin! The case fatality rate in Kitsap is 1.1%, in Asotin it's 10.0%. There have been over 14x as many Covid-19 tests in Kitsap (3.5% of the population) as in Asotin (2.8% of population) so the testing has been roughly proportional.
-

 

[Brians356]

The fact that those states experiencing surging case count were the first to ease restrictions has nothing to do with it aye?

If I said anything even hinting at that, kindly quote it back to me.
-

 

[Gina1]

Should be interesting to see what happens after BlackLivesMatter riots..errrr, I mean peaceful protests?

We live in interesting times.

Old Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times"

 

[ronsatspokane]

Anybody have the statistics yet for The Autonomous Zone?

The leaders of the various movements occupy the lower half of the IQ bell curve. Their previous place of residence was their mothers basement where they smoked weed. The homeless, who were invited, ate all the food. As soon as the bills go unpaid, the power and sewer will be shut off. A sign was posted proclaiming the precinct as now owned by the people. Apparently they are not aware that the people already owned and paid for it (understandable mistake if you've never had a job). There is infighting between the various factions as to what the message is. Expect both a Stalin and a Trotsky to surface soon. They are already eating their own in demanding that the comrade mayor (who is defending them) step down. A list of demands was posted, one of them was the de-gentrification of Seattle.

More data than stats but you get the picture.

I lived off and on on a live-aboard boat on Lake Union for 10 years. It's just a stones throw away from the "zone". My opinion is that the residents of Seattle got what they have been voting for for the last 20-30 years. Viva la Revolution ya dumb [people].

P.S. and of course there will be no covid cases reported from the "peaceful" protests across the nation. Covid can only be transmitted while protesting the lockdown.

 

[Brians356]

Yeah agreed they missed the point there. But believe me that headline didn't spook anyone. They're commenting after the fact. Fed Chairman's dose of reality is what cooled market sentiment - alongside an ever-present concern about how severe a 'second wave' might be. But the first wave is still going strong let alone a second wave.

Today's increase of 22k vs a previous number of 2.066 million is a 1.1% increase in confirmed cases though.

Just one more example:

By MIKE STOBBE Of the Associated Press, Jun 12, 2020

NEW YORK — States are rolling back lockdowns, but the coronavirus isn’t done with the U.S.

Cases are rising in nearly half the states, according to an Associated Press analysis, a worrying trend that could intensify as people return to work and venture out during the summer.
...
The increase in infections pulled stocks down sharply Thursday on Wall Street, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average more than 1,800 points lower and giving the S&P 500 its worst day in nearly three months.
-

 

[JimT]

Just one more example:

By MIKE STOBBE Of the Associated Press, Jun 12, 2020

NEW YORK — States are rolling back lockdowns, but the coronavirus isn’t done with the U.S.

Cases are rising in nearly half the states, according to an Associated Press analysis, a worrying trend that could intensify as people return to work and venture out during the summer.
...
The increase in infections pulled stocks down sharply Thursday on Wall Street, dragging the Dow Jones Industrial Average more than 1,800 points lower and giving the S&P 500 its worst day in nearly three months.
-

Market moves will become more and more associated with the upcoming election. That is, a 30-40% increase in corporate tax rates along with massive re-regulation will undoubtedly cause a significant revaluation of stocks. Thursday was the start.

 

[Dgd6mm]

P.S. and of course there will be no covid cases reported from the "peaceful" protests across the nation. Covid can only be transmitted while protesting the lockdown.[/QUOTE]

Or, President Donald J. TRUMP's rally or convention.

 

[Adam in WI]

Or, President Donald J. TRUMP's rally or convention.

They'll do everything they can to connect as many cases as possible to this rally.

 

[SGK]

Well The Donald is asking to prevent social distancing and wearing of masks at the convention...but also asking rally attendees to sign a waiver so they can't sue if they catch COVID at a rally. Come hither all you idiots. "It's going to be great!"

 

[Brians356]

Market moves will become more and more associated with the upcoming election. That is, a 30-40% increase in corporate tax rates along with massive re-regulation will undoubtedly cause a significant revaluation of stocks. Thursday was the start.

So investors suddenly concluded Biden will win, and the Senate flip? That two-month rally happened while they were delusional, but now they're clearheaded. Everything rides on which dunces are in the majority. Got it.

The stock market is a discounting mechanism of future expectations, looking ahead six to nine months. The economy couldn't have been stronger when the virus hit. You'd be hard pressed to find a single person who doesn't expect a vaccine in a matter of months. Nearly all new cases are traceable, i.e. there's very little random "community spread" which was the great fear. It's too easy for the sideline pundits to ignore certain positives and magnify the worst possibilities, but institutional investors control $Trillions that can't sit in coffee cans. Investors will invest, and US equities are still The Show (to borrow from baseball). Handwringing is not a sound investment strategy.
-

 

[jds holler]

So investors suddenly concluded Biden will win, and the Senate flip?
-

My God, you have just described the worst nightmare of everyone who is actually sane.

Sadly the bozo's who desire this, will get what they deserve, and apparently desire -- as will the rest of us who don't deserve or desire it. jd

 

[Brians356]

My God, you have just described the worst nightmare of everyone who is actually sane.

Sadly the bozo's who desire this, will get what they deserve, and apparently desire -- as will the rest of us who don't deserve or desire it. jd

We're only in the 4th inning.
-