COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[ronsatspokane]

Too late for that in the US. But the US doesn't have the ability/opportunity to act as a unified country.

Yes, NZ earns a good deal from tourism - just under 6% of GDP - and that will be hurting for some time. Reopening the border soon with Oz will help a little. But at least the core domestic and exporting economy, the vast majority of the economy - will normalize rapidly. (Never been a fan of Jacinda's economics but there's no doubting her commendable leadership skills.)

In contrast, I'm watching the 7-day moving average case count in Florida tick markedly higher over the last week as things "reopen." And of course demonstrations against racial inequality won't have helped. While unlikely to be the main driver of increased case count they will undoubtedly bear a disproportionate amount of blame. And there's a lot of people up the Eastern seaboard all chomping for the beaches in Miami-Dade to reopen so they can get some sun. They'll either bring COVID with them or take it home.

Grab your Tip Top Trumpet and come on over.

(Always loved the second advertisement.)

You are in agreement with the leftists. They are telling us that protests in support of Floyd do not spread coronavirus. Only protests against lock down spread coronavirus. Yes, it is true. The depths of stupidity will never be fully plumbed.

 

[SGK]

Not what I said at all. Sometimes I wonder whether you can read.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Not what I said at all. Sometimes I wonder whether you can read.

You said: "While unlikely to be the main driver of increased case count they will undoubtedly bear a disproportionate amount of blame."

 

[Brians356]

Fake News: "Markets Crash On Covid-19 Spike in US".

The current growth rate of new cases remains 1.01% per day (barely exponential growth) through 10 June. In the past 19 days, there was a single 1.02% increase on 5 June.
-

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
-

 

[SGK]

Not sure where you got that headline from (Facebook again?) but that's not the reason stocks fell. The Fed outlook statement was the tipping point for a market that had come too far too fast. Amongst other things the Fed believes the US economy will face a far greater level of unemployment into 2022 than existed pre-virus. The uptick in cases - and the focus is on states that have been quick to relax NPI e.g. Florida rather than the total - helps confirm the view that the US will be grappling with this pandemic deep into 2021. Not a surprising correction.

 

[Brians356]

Not sure where you got that headline from (Facebook again?)

What is this "Facebook" I keep hearing about? Is it a news organization?
-

 

[SGK]

Dunno. I don't use it but your post 935 re reopening of Florida was a link to Facebook so I assumed that might be where you get your news from.

 

[Dgd6mm]

"And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done." Feb 26


Take roughly 3000 confirmed cases in the US today and compound that at 33% per day which is more or less the trajectory exhibited by most countries. In a week from now you have more than 22,000. In two weeks 165,000.

Circa 23% of the Italian population in over 65. (1) It's hitting them hard. How healthy is the US population? Let's all hope this thing begins to recede soon so that scientists (and not science denying politicians) have the time to figure out a vaccine before any second wave.

(1) According to the CIA World Factbook that figure was 16% for the US population in 2018.

 

[SGK]

The new case count in Florida is on a tear and the 7 day moving average is the highest it's ever been. I read recently, but can't recall the source, that ICU capacity in Florida was 87% full and climbing with over half that capacity taken up by COVID patients. And that's with summer heat. Aside from a vaccine which won't happen for the general public before summer 2021, now's probably the optimal time to get it. Hopefully it only affects you mildly but if you do need care we've learnt a decent amount as to how to deal with it, hospital capacity has been increased and procedures improved - and there are still beds available. Get in before the game of musical chairs starts.

 

[Brians356]

Yahoo! (via Bloomberg):


U.S. Cases Rise 1.1%


Stocks saw a third straight day of declines as a second wave of coronavirus cases emerged in the U.S. with the number of confirmed cases pushing past two million, according to data from John Hopkins University

The second-wave scare is causing investors to seek shelter in stocks that have benefited from Americans staying closer to home. Netflix Inc., Zoom Video Communications Inc. and Peloton Interactive Inc. all traded higher Thursday despite the S&P 500 having its biggest drop since May 1.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-u-s-cases-rise-1-1-virus-update?srnd=premium
-

 

[SGK]

Yeah agreed they missed the point there. But believe me that headline didn't spook anyone. They're commenting after the fact. Fed Chairman's dose of reality is what cooled market sentiment - alongside an ever-present concern about how severe a 'second wave' might be. But the first wave is still going strong let alone a second wave.

Today's increase of 22k vs a previous number of 2.066 million is a 1.1% increase in confirmed cases though.

 

[MislMan]

With increased testing ... the more you test the more you’ll find/confirm.

 

[Mark W]

With increased testing ... the more you test the more you’ll find/confirm.

......and the less deadly it will become.

 

[antelopedundee]

Yeah agreed they missed the point there. But believe me that headline didn't spook anyone. They're commenting after the fact. Fed Chairman's dose of reality is what cooled market sentiment - alongside an ever-present concern about how severe a 'second wave' might be.

Remember when Alan Greenjeans killed a nice bull market run with the words irrational exuberance?

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

......and the less deadly it will become.

U.S. COVID-19 case fatality rate over time:
22 March: 1.3%
4 April: 2.7%
4 May: 5.8%
30 May: 5.8%
11 Jun (today): 5.6%

 

[INTJ]

......and the less deadly it will become.

The CDC seems to concur:

"Nationally, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) and COVID-19-like illness (CLI) and the percentage of specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, continue to decline or remain stable at low levels. Mortality attributed to COVID-19 also decreased compared to last week but remains elevated above baseline and may increase as additional death certificates are processed.

The national percentage of respiratory specimens testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 at public health, clinical and commercial laboratories decreased from week 21 to week 22; however, percent positivity increased slightly in four regions. National percentages by type of laboratory:

• Public health laboratories – decreased from 6.8% during week 21 to 6.0% during week 22;
• Clinical laboratories – decreased from 6.0% during week 21 to 5.9% during week 22;
• Commercial laboratories – decreased from 6.5% during week 21 to 5.9% during week 22.

Based on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) decreased from 13.7% during week 21 to 8.4% during week 22 but remained above baseline. This is the sixth week of a declining percentage of deaths due to PIC, but this percentage may change as more death certificates are processed, particularly for recent weeks."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html


We'll see what the rioting, looting, and protesting will do to the numbers. We ought to be able to see that with tomorrow's CDC report. Then again, they took out 70 testing facilities so we may not know..............

 

[Brians356]

I notice some of the prominent "spike" states have large Hispanic populations: TX, AZ, FL. In Washington State, new infections in Eastern Washington since Memorial Day are highlighted by a 61% increase in Yakima County, which has a very high Hispanic population. I also wondered about the persistence of Covid-19 spread here in NV, which has a fairly high Hispanic population, and in particular in my county of Washoe. Who is catching the virus, since it arrived, and, more particularly, who is catching it lately?

In Washoe County, by far the two largest ethnic cohorts are "White" and "Hispanic":

"White": 291,000 (63%)
"Hispanic": 116,000 (25%)

Total Covid-19 cases: 1893 (11 June 2020)

Cases, whites: 571
Cases, Hispanics: 805

Contraction rate, whites: 0.2%
Contraction rate, Hispanics: 0.7%

Therefore, Hispanics have been 3.5x more likely to contract Covid-19 than whites.

Looking at just the new cases (61 new today, 11 June):

Whites: 19
Hispanics: 34

Contraction rate, whites: 0.007%
Contraction rate, Hispanics: 0.03%

On this date Hispanics were apparently (only a snapshot!) 4.3x more likely to contract the virus.

Over the next few weeks I will track the daily case numbers to see if there is a trend. My hunch is that the percentage of total cases occurring in the Hispanic community will keep growing, and this trend likely applies to other states as well.
-

 

[Brians356]

We'll see what the rioting, looting, and protesting will do to the numbers.

Don't look for a spike from protests and rioting. Outdoor activity is much less risky, especially activity that does not encourage intimate contact. College kids partying and families frolicking on the beach or in pools are different from hoodlums wearing face masks (disguises) throwing rocks and starting fires.
-

 

[Brians356]

U.S. COVID-19 case fatality rate over time:
22 March: 1.3%
4 April: 2.7%
4 May: 5.8%
30 May: 5.8%
11 Jun (today): 5.6%

Considering that Covid-19 kills mainly the elderly and infirm, and, as one expert opined, 2/3 of its generously-classified "from Covid-19" victims would have died absent Covid-19 from comorbidities by the end of the year anyway, the fatality rate does not particularly surprise or alarm me. 42% of US Covid-19 deaths have occurred in nursing homes or long-term care facilities. In WA 61%, OR and ID 57%, but there are much worse states:

https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70
-

 

[SGK]

I notice some of the prominent "spike" states have large Hispanic populations: TX, AZ, FL.
Over the next few weeks I will track the daily case numbers to see if there is a trend. My hunch is that the percentage of total cases occurring in the Hispanic community will keep growing, and this trend likely applies to other states as well.
-

FL publishes statistics by race.

https://fdoh.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/8d0de33f260d444c852a615dc7837c86

You can also look at statistics by county.

And of course this is where the racial divide kicks in with 'minorities' more likely to be working in jobs that can't offer WFH or other NPI countermeasures.

The fact that those states experiencing surging case count were the first to ease restrictions has nothing to do with it aye?

And... you're back to the old "they were going to die anyway" argument. I thought we'd dealt with that already.