Ned Ludd
Silver $$ Contributor
Actually, a number of us *have* spent an unreasonable amount of time reading on this particular topic. The question isn't whether the phenomenon (bullet stabilizing as it gets further down range) happens, its whether it actually serves as a justifiable excuse for bigger groups near vs far. Everything I've read indicates that the amount of 'wobble' is not enough to account physically for the discrepancy in group sizes; scope parallax or simply shooter error (focusing too much on the group, not the aiming point at closer distances where they can actually see the bullet holes) are much more likely.
This is it in a nutshell. No one is arguing whether people have observed this phenomenon, or at least whether they believe they have. I have no doubt whatsoever that some folks have shot groups with smaller angular dispersion at longer distances than at a shorter distance like 100 yd. It's the cause that's in dispute. As has been well-documented by ballisticians like Robert McCoy and Bryan Litz, epicyclic swerve absolutely occurs. Unfortunately, any shot displacement caused by this yaw/pitch effect early in the bullet's flight isn't nearly enough to account for the discrepancies in angular as have been reported. Yes, it happens, but the effect dampens out in a relatively short distance and, according to experts, would have a maximum affect on group spread of well under one caliber.
On the other hand, parallax error goes up significantly as distance decreases, particularly from 100 yd in. Due to another debate on this very topic, some time ago I found a very thorough mathematical analysis of parallax error. Using the equations it contained, I made a plot of maximal parallax error versus distance out to 1000 yd. I can't find the graph or I would have posted it here. It took quite a bit of time to generate it and I'm not energetic enough to reproduce it right now. However, anyone wishing to do it themselves is welcome. What you'll find is that parallax error goes up dramatically at shorter distances. What that means in practical terms is that if your scope parallax setting isn't spot on, or your head moves the tiniest little fraction, it will open up your groups significantly more at distances of 100 yd or less than it will at 200-300 yd or farther. I think that is by far the most likely explanation for this phenomenon. It's also an explanation that doesn't require a significant re-write of the laws of physics
