Both are important. Powder temperature affects the pressure developed and the muzzle velocity — internal ballistics. Higher air temperature along the line of flight reduces the air density which reduces the drag force on the bullet — external ballistics. Both can change a lot across the temperature range you described.…Maybe it's a combination of both effects.
The Formulations for the temperature sensitivity change in/about 2016.January 2022 lot number on my N150. The older powders are supposed to be less temperature stable which I confirmed for N140. I don't have experience with the older N150.