Shot my first load development, results not great
- Thread starter Shooterdevil
- Start date
No offense, but you don't know what that means yet. You said so yourself.
Get outside, put it on paper; unless the chronograph is your hobby, in which case I resign my position.
There are plenty of guys here that have shown and proven chrono numbers don't mean anything...even at 1k...when the load is tuned.
If it shoots small, it shoots small. If there's very little vertical on target, does it really matter if your SD is 48 or 3???
Don't EVER. EVER waste a round for any reason. Even when I am verifying my speed before a match I take that time to squeeze out a 5 shot group and verify my load is still tuned and zero is still good. Work on rifle handling. You wasted 50 rounds and still have a scope that's not zeroed? That just seems bizarre to me. You could shot 10 5 shot groups, got your rifle on target, collected all the velocity data you collected, worked on rifle handling and trigger yanking etc etc.
Sit back, take a deep breath and think. Components aren't easy to come by and the cost isn't cheap. No reason to ever send rounds into a back stop without taking the opportunity to work on something else or learn something else.
Don't be afraid to ask questions here. Take a deep breath and go slow.
If it shoots small, it shoots small. If there's very little vertical on target, does it really matter if your SD is 48 or 3???
Don't EVER. EVER waste a round for any reason. Even when I am verifying my speed before a match I take that time to squeeze out a 5 shot group and verify my load is still tuned and zero is still good. Work on rifle handling. You wasted 50 rounds and still have a scope that's not zeroed? That just seems bizarre to me. You could shot 10 5 shot groups, got your rifle on target, collected all the velocity data you collected, worked on rifle handling and trigger yanking etc etc.
Sit back, take a deep breath and think. Components aren't easy to come by and the cost isn't cheap. No reason to ever send rounds into a back stop without taking the opportunity to work on something else or learn something else.
Don't be afraid to ask questions here. Take a deep breath and go slow.
Appreciate the responses, next update will be with groups!
Not me, but these guys that are responding to you have walls full of shooting awards. You have come to the right and most friendly place on the internet, take their earned and free advice.
Ccrider
Gold $$ Contributor
I will add one more thing. If you just started reloading, I think you have great goals regarding your desired es/Ed. If you attain those goals overnight, that will be great. I may be a little slow, but it took me several years to get consistent e/s in single digits to low teens for most loads.
Like you, I expected them from the start since I read so many post where these guys routinely get low numbers. I figured I could buy the same equipment and mimic what I read they were doing and get the same results. It just don’t quite work out that way. At least, not for me or didn’t.
Like you, I expected them from the start since I read so many post where these guys routinely get low numbers. I figured I could buy the same equipment and mimic what I read they were doing and get the same results. It just don’t quite work out that way. At least, not for me or didn’t.
Bill Norris
Back in the Day
I would agree with the fact that the chrono takes a back seat to what the rifle/load combo will print on paper. Too many times I've seen the target looking as good as gold with the chrono saying "it ain't so".
I've been reloading pistol since 2008. I didn't care much about precision, just cranking out range/training loads. I'm always willing to learn and finding a place that offers help for the betterment of the sport is a bonus. The internet is a toxic enough place, you gotta take the good and ignore the trolls.
Don't forget the wind flags!!! Without some kind of wind indicators,you're are just shooting and hoping...
making noise. IF you're really interested in shooting SMALL groups,you're going to have to learn to dope the wind and you can't do that successfully without wind flags.
Many,many times I've seen small groups with large ES/SD's....small ES/SD"s don't guarantee you anything.
You're smallest groups are going to be where the node is. Stay safe.
This test was with brand new brass?
If so you’re probably going to see better numbers on subsequent firings.
I never get too wrapped up in new brass results but you’ll generally see if the barrel might want to be a good shooter, I just want a moderate load to form up the brass.
@Shooterdevil,
@RegionRat has good advice as do many others. For the most part no-one has gotten too deep into statistics and I'll try not to either but there are some basic aspects worth mentioning so I'll touch on them briefly.
Loading, shooting and taking data is only part of the test. Calculating mean and standard deviation only apply to the x number of rounds (sample) that were fired (in the past). Of interest is what that data tells you about a lot of future rounds loaded in the same fashion. This puts the information that is of primary interest in the realm of probabilities not absolutes. Statistical tools that have been developed to analyze how the test data applies to the future rounds (the population) . For instance in the case of your 2619 fps mean with a SD of 11, would mean that if you were to test many groups of five shots 95% of the means would likely lie between 2605.3 and 2632.7 fps. However, because standard deviation does not distribute normally the 95% confidence interval for the standard deviation of 11 over five shots is between 6.6 and 31.6. If you were to shoot many groups of five shots 95% of the standard deviations would fall in that range. So while we think we might have a good handle on the mean based on the tested SD in actuality we don't have a good handle on the actual SD and therefor the mean.
There are also tools that can be used to compare two means to see if they are statistically different and also to compare standard deviations to see if they are different. If we look at your max and min SD, 9 and 23 for 5 shot groups and run an F test assuming 23 is greater than 9, the test says that there is a 95% chance that the 23 is actually greater than the 9. However, those SD's of 22 or less would be assumed to be equal to or less than the 9 SD. The problem is we do not have enough data to have a high confidence level in the assumptions or predictions. So what amount of data is required to have confidence that a tested 15 SD is actually greater than a tested 11 SD? That would be a sample size of 31shots for each sample.
So what happens in the Satterlee style ladder test for velocity flat spots? Its the small sample sizes that end up creating the flat spots and not any true result. If the same test were run again it's likely that the flat spots will move and not be repeatable.
I hope this helps understand some of the issue with the test and with looking at chronograph data in general.
@RegionRat has good advice as do many others. For the most part no-one has gotten too deep into statistics and I'll try not to either but there are some basic aspects worth mentioning so I'll touch on them briefly.
Loading, shooting and taking data is only part of the test. Calculating mean and standard deviation only apply to the x number of rounds (sample) that were fired (in the past). Of interest is what that data tells you about a lot of future rounds loaded in the same fashion. This puts the information that is of primary interest in the realm of probabilities not absolutes. Statistical tools that have been developed to analyze how the test data applies to the future rounds (the population) . For instance in the case of your 2619 fps mean with a SD of 11, would mean that if you were to test many groups of five shots 95% of the means would likely lie between 2605.3 and 2632.7 fps. However, because standard deviation does not distribute normally the 95% confidence interval for the standard deviation of 11 over five shots is between 6.6 and 31.6. If you were to shoot many groups of five shots 95% of the standard deviations would fall in that range. So while we think we might have a good handle on the mean based on the tested SD in actuality we don't have a good handle on the actual SD and therefor the mean.
There are also tools that can be used to compare two means to see if they are statistically different and also to compare standard deviations to see if they are different. If we look at your max and min SD, 9 and 23 for 5 shot groups and run an F test assuming 23 is greater than 9, the test says that there is a 95% chance that the 23 is actually greater than the 9. However, those SD's of 22 or less would be assumed to be equal to or less than the 9 SD. The problem is we do not have enough data to have a high confidence level in the assumptions or predictions. So what amount of data is required to have confidence that a tested 15 SD is actually greater than a tested 11 SD? That would be a sample size of 31shots for each sample.
So what happens in the Satterlee style ladder test for velocity flat spots? Its the small sample sizes that end up creating the flat spots and not any true result. If the same test were run again it's likely that the flat spots will move and not be repeatable.
I hope this helps understand some of the issue with the test and with looking at chronograph data in general.
I shoot on a private range and I luckily I’m free to do as I please and take as much time as needed. I shoot through my chronograph nearly every time. I gather data. I just like to know. I find with my 223 loads, I can’t collect precision in my ES and SD numbers. I really believe it’s the tolerance of the chronograph and the size of the projectile. My 6mm, 6.5 and 308 get really good numbers most of the time. I do know that the target doesn’t lie. With the 223, sometimes I get ES of as much as 50fps and I still land on target with precision. I’m new at this and time hopefully will get me better.
That's interesting...I have the same issue with my 223, it nearly drove me mad trying to correct it. I get single digit ES/SD with my 6CM, but the 223 is usually double digits. Like you said, the groups are good. So I eventually just threw my hands up and said F it, it just doesn't chrono well.
This was an ES of 50+ but I really don’t think it’s possible for it to be that far apart and hit that well. Wind was also about 10mph
RegionRat
Gold $$ Contributor
William, if you had a rifle with a linear response to the ES=50 with a typical fullbore load, at 700 yards it would be roughly a vertical change of 6 to 7 inches.
If the rifle has any tuning response at all, then that value can be smaller when on the group node, or amplified when you are unlucky and on the scatter node.
If the rifle has any tuning response at all, then that value can be smaller when on the group node, or amplified when you are unlucky and on the scatter node.
I’ve also considered that possibility. Also considered that slow velocity bullet to be on the muzzle upward wave of the barrel vibration which would cancel out the lower POI from velocity with a higher trajectory but I consider that less probable than chronograph error. I should really spring for a doppler chronograph but with the target results I just use the velocity average and test ballistic prediction with actual target impact.
I’ve got a 308 load with 168ELD, Lapua brass, Federal 210 primer and 45.6 grains of IMR4895. The bullets are -.020 from jam and velocity is 2820 average. I shoot this load from an original barrel Remington 700P that’s got no barrel date code. The gun is old but has very little erosion. The barrel has some rust damage along its bore length but shoots like a match gun. I put a Triggertech Special trigger in it and that’s it. Here’s a group I shot today at 700 yards straight out of the bag.
Attachments
You've been given sound advice from these very knowledgeable folks here. The only thing I can say is to be open to changing components, IF you don't achieve satisfactory results from your current recipe. I shoot a RPR in 6.5 CM and have found a satisfactory load for it with a somewhat unlikely, or maybe less advertised recipe of using Superformance powder under the 140 gr ELD-Ms, CCI LR primers and Hornady brass. With good conditions (I suck at wind reading) I've been able to shoot right at 1/2 MOA out to 1000 with it. Factory barrel also still. It's not a barn burner for speed but fairly accurate. Good luck!
Cfshooter
Silver $$ Contributor
This, and this again.
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