COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

Define "high risk"

I haven't seen fatality data by age group for the US as a whole but you can find it here for Florida:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/state_reports_latest.pdf

Scroll down until you get the tables/graphic for confirmed cases (obviously a subset of actual population infection), hospitalizations and deaths by age group.

In FL, 15% of confirmed cases so far are 65 years of age or older. Given approximately 17.6% of the Florida population is 65 or over we're doing a slightly ok job at 'protecting the vulnerable' (as defined by age) from infection but not massively so. That age group represents, currently, 52% of hospitalizations and 82% of deaths. No surprises there, COVID kills the elderly. 11% of those in that age group that are confirmed COVID cases die. If we assume - just for a moment - that all COVID deaths happen after hospitalization then if you are admitted (and of that age group) you might expect a roughly 49% chance of death, better if you are closer to 65 than if you are 75 and so on.

 

[SGK]

FWIW an update of a graphic I'd posted previously

 

[Brians356]

I expect excess deaths throughout 2020 and the first half of 2021.

Toby, would you like to rethink that prediction today? (If not, I may have a wager for your consideration.)

Notice that between late February 2018 and January 2020 there were zero excess deaths. But more significant, there were significantly fewer than even average expected deaths over that two year period. This largely reflects a very mild 18-'19 flu season (but probably also a roaring economy.) So a whole lot of vulnerable people who would have been expected to meet the Grim Reaper in those two years survived. And we know that the vast majority (95%?) of Covid-19 decedents are just such vulnerables.

The phrase popping up recently in analysis of excess deaths is "abundant dry tinder." It's not unreasonable to posit that if '18 - '19 had claimed a typical number of vulnerable folk, the excess deaths in 2020 would be dramatically lower. I'd guess possibly 1/3 lower. That might put the current Covid-19 death toll at less than 140,000. Maybe even lower if you consider the knock-on effects of lock-downs and disruption/delay of normal medical care induced by the reaction to the early spike in excess deaths.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

Toby, would you like to rethink that prediction today? (If not, I may have a wager for your consideration.)

Bring it on. But not in this thread, because my last betting episode got the thread locked and this thread is too valuable to lose. There would have to a clear definition of what constitutes excess deaths over a given time period. A majority of weeks with excess deaths? A total of excess deaths bigger than zero? A weekly average of excess deaths greater than zero? Lots of possible metrics.

FWIW, here's why I think excess deaths (most directly due to COVID-19) will continue through 2020 and into 2021:

We have two major holidays (Thanksgiving and Christmas) coming up that will involve a lot of travel and large gatherings of people outside each others's current bubbles (including at the airports through which they will travel). Among those traveling will be college students, who are already (predictably) rampant sources of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Those college students have parents and grandparents who are at risk because of age. People will break the rules because of their holiday traditions, and let the chips fall where they may. Most likely I will be one of them.

This is all great news if you are a respiratory virus, or if you are betting on Americans to drop the ball (again). Bad news otherwise.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

This thread proves one thing, hindsight is "2020".

Not at all. Knowing that pandemics occur often enough to plan for, we had a plan. The countries that executed our plan (e.g., South Korea) fared much better than we have, for the simple reason that we in the U.S. failed (and are still failing) miserably to carry out our own plan.

Well before there was even one COVID-19 death in the U.S. we knew that SARS-CoV-2 was both more virulent and more infectious than the seasonal flu, and that there was almost certainly no immunity in the human population. From factcheck.org:

"In taped interviews, Trump underscored to Woodward just how deadly the disease could be. In a Feb. 7 conversation, Trump told Woodward, “This is deadly stuff,” adding that it might be five times more lethal than the flu. Trump said, “It’s also more deadly than your – you know, your, even your strenuous flus.”"

 

[Brians356]

Bring it on. But not in this thread, because my last betting episode got the thread locked and this thread is too valuable to lose. There would have to a clear definition of what constitutes excess deaths over a given time period. A majority of weeks with excess deaths? A total of excess deaths bigger than zero? A weekly average of excess deaths greater than zero? Lots of possible metrics.

I properly (see below) interpreted your "throughout 2020" to mean excess deaths would persist steadily (i.e. no weeks dipping below threshold) throughout 2020.

throughout (adv.)

: in every part of (a place or object)

: during the whole time or action : from beginning to end
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[David101]

I have one wall in the garage stacked with TP and another with paper towels. We are good I hope. chuckle chuckle

Swap the TP wall of paper out for phone books if you can still find any. It can then double as a protection barricade wall as well as a source of TP. Maybe not as soft as your touch is used to but certainly a well used source in times of hardship around the world. I know some people Older that still use them they quote that they got used to it during the war and then the years after when they had little money and now it just seems like a waste of both paper and money to buy other paper to do the same job,

 

[ronsatspokane]

Not at all. Knowing that pandemics occur often enough to plan for, we had a plan. The countries that executed our plan (e.g., South Korea) fared much better than we have, for the simple reason that we in the U.S. failed (and are still failing) miserably to carry out our own plan.

Well before there was even one COVID-19 death in the U.S. we knew that SARS-CoV-2 was both more virulent and more infectious than the seasonal flu, and that there was almost certainly no immunity in the human population. From factcheck.org:

"In taped interviews, Trump underscored to Woodward just how deadly the disease could be. In a Feb. 7 conversation, Trump told Woodward, “This is deadly stuff,” adding that it might be five times more lethal than the flu. Trump said, “It’s also more deadly than your – you know, your, even your strenuous flus.”"

We had a plan? Surprising that Biden knows nothing about it. He's making up a plan as he goes along and his plan is Trumps plan albeit 6 months behind Trump since most of it has been implemented.

And perhaps Trump should have scared the shit out of the public and advocated for rioting, burning and murder like the left has been doing. He could have single handedly destroyed western civilization had he adopted the democrats "plan".

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

We had a plan?

Yep.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/national-strategy/index.html

And perhaps Trump should have scared the shit out of the public ...

When I have terminal cancer, I want my physician to tell me to get my affairs in order, not tell me that "like a miracle, this will disappear". YMMV.

 

[Brians356]

When I have terminal cancer, I want my physician to tell me to get my affairs in order, not tell me that "like a miracle, this will disappear". YMMV.

Overplaying your part a little, aren't you? This play is farce, not tragedy.
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[ronsatspokane]

Yep.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/national-strategy/index.html



When I have terminal cancer, I want my physician to tell me to get my affairs in order, not tell me that "like a miracle, this will disappear". YMMV.

Shame this isn't the flu. If it were, how do you execute a plan with nothing to execute the plan with? Mother Hubbards cupboards were bare. Any plan would certainly come with supplies. Guess the plan was not worth the paper it was written on, aside from mis-identifying the threat that is.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

Shame this isn't the flu. If it were, how do you execute a plan with nothing to execute the plan with? Mother Hubbards cupboards were bare. Any plan would certainly come with supplies. Guess the plan was not worth the paper it was written on, aside from mis-identifying the threat that is.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200820102431.htm

"... compare responses to the pandemic from two democratic republics: South Korea and the U.S., demonstrating stark differences in public health strategies, which have led to alarming differences in cases and deaths from COVID-19. After adjusting for the 6.5 fold differences in populations, the U.S. has suffered 47 times more cases and 79 times more deaths than South Korea."

"Ironically, the public health methods they employed closely followed those developed and introduced by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which formerly served as a scientific beacon for such activities worldwide."

 

[ronsatspokane]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200820102431.htm

"... compare responses to the pandemic from two democratic republics: South Korea and the U.S., demonstrating stark differences in public health strategies, which have led to alarming differences in cases and deaths from COVID-19. After adjusting for the 6.5 fold differences in populations, the U.S. has suffered 47 times more cases and 79 times more deaths than South Korea."

"Ironically, the public health methods they employed closely followed those developed and introduced by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which formerly served as a scientific beacon for such activities worldwide."

Perhaps you do not understand what the word "state" means. We are not one country. We are 50 countries which form a union. The government of that union (referred to as the federal government) does not have the authority within a given state to engage in the coercion needed to lock down each state. If it did, perhaps the travesty that occurred in New York would not have happened. And as we know, that travesty skewed the numbers significantly. And perhaps the people of Korea are healthier than us fat fucks here in the US. Now if the CDC had the authority to take control, we'd all be locked in our houses and still be looking at a minimum of two more years to a vaccine rather than by the end of the year. I know, sucks to live in a free country and you know it is free when you watch the Navy ships arriving to massive crowds in New York while New York was put into lock down by the fellow who sent the covid infected to the nursing homes.

And, it was not the CDC that served as a beacon, it was WHO. WHO has lost their credibility.

 

[Crow]

Yep.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/national-strategy/index.html

...interesting to note that the National Strategy For Pandemic Influenza seems to give considerable weight to 'sustaining infrastructure and mitigating impact to the economy and the functioning of society'. That seems like a good idea.

Still looking for the part of the plan calling for universal masks, lockdowns and using retirement homes as concentration camps...

 

[butchlambert]

Swap the TP wall of paper out for phone books if you can still find any. It can then double as a protection barricade wall as well as a source of TP. Maybe not as soft as your touch is used to but certainly a well used source in times of hardship around the world. I know some people Older that still use them they quote that they got used to it during the war and then the years after when they had little money and now it just seems like a waste of both paper and money to buy other paper to do the same job,

Hey David, how about swapping it for sandpaper? You may not see this in your store, but Amazon has a lot for sale. Kinda like ammo and shooting supplies, buy it when you see a good price. If you are over 16yrs old, you have seen these scares before and should be prepared. We won't be using corncobs like some.

 

[SGK]

Brian Skelter's new book offers fantastic insight into the history behind the ugly feedback loop that fed the denial of the COVID threat back in February/March (and many other issues facing the country). Discount it however much you want afterwards but read it first. Highly recommended.

 

[Mr.Knowit all]

There is VERY little correct data on Covid19. Since the beginning there was the biggest misinformation campaign in history. Everything has been propagandized for what ever is needed by politicians. I had heart surgery at the University of Utah and NO ONE was in ICU and only 1 man on my floor when I got out of ICU. Where's all the sick people??? Now the CDC says they think it's closer to 6% of the dead that ACTUALLY died from Covid. So that would take us down to less than 15k deaths and FAR less deadly than the flu.
I wouldn't believe anything. Even the crap I just posted.

 

[Brians356]

Comparing S. Korea to the US is interesting, but fairly ridiculous. As I recall S. Korea is the size of Indiana, with half its population clustered in greater Seoul. With a centralized government having vastly more coercive power than ours, how simple to aggressively test and control their population? Add to that the fact that Koreans, like the Japanese, have been accustomed to wearing facemasks in public for generations.
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[SGK]

https://investors.modernatx.com/new...progress-across-broad-portfolio-and-all-three

https://www.ft.com/content/69215c2a-c665-4ac9-b041-538a1aff9d25

(Full disclosure: through various funds I own a small amount of Moderna stock and, yes, the stock is down 3% today.)

 

[SGK]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podca...0/GBb1VbAUJD2cOwOecfI-53uuXC-zoBHk3WZN-weHNjc

A podcast from a couple of Morgan Stanley research analysts providing a useful summary regarding the timeline for vaccine development as well as its production and distribution.