COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[Brians356]

Ok, here's the "Daily Test Positivity, 1-week Avg" (percent of tests positive for Covid-19) for the US in four regions, only the past 4 weeks graphed. I don't see a worsening spike.
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[INTJ]

It is in the media's best interest to sensationalize so they can sell news. Anyone with any critical thinking ability understands that there are occasional "spikes", both up and down, that are outside of the trend line. A spike by definition is a new direction for a trend.

The only things I am sure of in all this are/ we should not have shut down the economy like we did, COVID will go through the population with mostly minor effect, and COVID will eventually reach an endemic phase like all other respiratory diseases.

 

[SGK]

I don't see a worsening spike.

In Florida, there's only a modest difference in number of tests over the last two weeks (627) but the rates of positivity have definitely risen. Have a look at the data I posted. It is annoying that they only provide the data for the last two weeks and hence one would have to collate it to show a longer trend. Florida had another cracker of a day yesterday. Onward!

 

[SGK]

The only things I am sure of in all this are/ we should not have shut down the economy like we did, COVID will go through the population with mostly minor effect, and COVID will eventually reach an endemic phase like all other respiratory diseases.

You keep making the mistake that things would have been normal without any 'stay at home' orders. It's a bit hard to work when you're sick with COVID. With a common cold or even the flu one might even 'push through it' but with something this infectious you simply can't. Right now 1.19 million people - a new record - have it.

 

[afret]

This is just my personal view. I'm not going to worry about the Wuhan virus. I'll take reasonable care but won't go nuts with the mask and other junk. I'm an old fart but reasonably healthy and it seems like the elderly with health problems are the ones that should be really careful. The media hypes this so much to push their agenda and keeping things shut down. The death count is so corrupted with the monetary incentive for health care facilities to count deaths as virus caused.

The local state run range just opened and I'll go shoot several time a week. If I catch it, so be it. I could get killed doing a lot of other things like driving, shooting, working with my tractor, and on and on. I don't plan on living forever but plan on having a lot of fun.

 

[INTJ]

You keep making the mistake that things would have been normal without any 'stay at home' orders. It's a bit hard to work when you're sick with COVID. With a common cold or even the flu one might even 'push through it' but with something this infectious you simply can't. Right now 1.19 million people - a new record - have it.

You keep making the mistake that without the massive economic shutdown, deaths would have reached worse case levels. Quarantining the sick, protecting the vulnerable and social distancing would have likely been as effective as the mass shutdown without causing anywhere near the economic hit we have seen.

 

[Brians356]

The local state run range just opened and I'll go shoot several time a week. If I catch it, so be it.

You're very unlikely to catch it outdoors. Just don't rub your eyes or pick your nose, and carry a little bottle of hand sanitizer. Obviously you don't hug or kiss anyone not wearing your ring.
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[Brians356]

How to foment panic using graphical tricks:

Behold the surge in new cases/day, 1-week average (New York Times graphic 13 June):


Scary, huh? Nevada, Arkansas, Oregon, Utah, S. Carolina all about as bad as Arizona. But I live in Nevada, and something doesn't seem kosher.

Here's Nevada by itself on 91-Divoc.com:


Notice how the Times compressed the X axis to exaggerate the vertical climb in new cases? But that's only a subtle trick. Now look at Nevada and Arizona both at the same scale:



Hey, where'd Nevada's "hockey stick" spike go? And Oregon, Utah, Arkansas got the same exaggeration treatment. Even S. Carolina was made to look worse than it already was:



The upshot is that the casual reader assumes equivalent extreme spikes are occurring in many states, when really AZ is in a class by itself, especially when we consider "new case positivity" (% of tests positive) which normalizes out the large number of tests being conducted in certain states like CA:



Here you can see that Arizona truly is in a class by itself. CA, FL, and TX are now down in the weeds with NV and OR. SC seems to be trending down.

There are subtle ways to create Fake News.

 

[DRNewcomb]

We keep hearing from hyperventilating news announcers about how Mississippi is burning up with COVID-19 but the rate of hospitalizations, ICU beds and ventilators in use is remaining fairly constant. It looks like most of the new cases are among younger people, who are not as severely impacted by the illness. Japan seems to have a very low infection rate but they also have a very low testing rate. One thing that's been clear from early on is that the more you test, the higher rate of infections you find.

 

[Brians356]

We keep hearing from hyperventilating news announcers about how Mississippi is burning up with COVID-19 but the rate of hospitalizations, ICU beds and ventilators in use is remaining fairly constant. It looks like most of the new cases are among younger people, who are not as severely impacted by the illness. Japan seems to have a very low infection rate but they also have a very low testing rate. One thing that's been clear from early on is that the more you test, the higher rate of infections you find.

Mississippi compared to some other states (daily test positivity, 1-week avg., normalized for population). MS had a rough couple of days. I'd want to find out why, out of curiosity.

 

[SGK]

Florida is showing signs of returning to exponential growth. This was before today's reporting of yesterday's 3207 new confirmed cases.



I've begun collating FDOH's testing and positivity data in order to produce a longer timeline but here's what I have so far:

 

[Dgd6mm]

We're doomed!

 

[Dgd6mm]

News in, Florida covid 19 numbers up due to unmasked non social distancing among protesters. HA!

 

[Brians356]

Florida is showing signs of returning to exponential growth. This was before today's reporting of yesterday's 3207 new confirmed cases.
...
I've begun collating FDOH's testing and positivity data in order to produce a longer timeline but here's what I have so far:

View attachment 1185423

That graphic (daily test positivity, yellow on your graph) sure doesn't match the Johns Hopkins CSSE data displayed here (last 4 weeks thru 17 June):
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[Brians356]

News in, Florida covid 19 numbers up due to unmasked non social distancing among protesters. HA!

Got a link to the story?
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[SGK]

News in, Florida covid 19 numbers up due to unmasked non social distancing among protesters. HA!

Nah. That won’t kick in for another week or so.

 

[SGK]

That graphic (daily test positivity, yellow on your graph) sure doesn't match the Johns Hopkins CSSE data displayed here (last 4 weeks thru 17 June):

It’s merely a graphical presentation of FDOH data for which I’ve provided a link already.

When you read their publication you will see that there are two positivity calculations. The first includes people tested more than once. The second excludes such people and would be the better data to use. However, number of tests data is only available for the first and hence I used that. Obviously the positivity percentage when excluding people tested more than once is slightly lower. However, it exhibits the same trend. Take a look at the FDOH report.

In any event both charts show the upward trend in percentage of people testing positive. Including the data on testing shows that such trend is occurring even though the level of testing has remained broadly constant.

(when I update the chart I will show both pos ratios but just remember the test data is all tests)

 

[jwink]

All this stuff just plain bums me out, I finally made it to the age that I can give a sweet young thing a smooch on the cheek and a hug without them feeling threatened and then this crap starts up, just my luck.

 

[Brians356]

All this stuff just plain bums me out, I finally made it to the age that I can give a sweet young thing a smooch on the cheek and a hug without them feeling threatened and then this crap starts up, just my luck.

Sucks bein' you. ;-)
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[Brians356]

It’s merely a graphical presentation of FDOH data for which I’ve provided a link already.

When you read their publication you will see that there are two positivity calculations. The first includes people tested more than once. The second excludes such people and would be the better data to use. However, number of tests data is only available for the first and hence I used that. Obviously the positivity percentage when excluding people tested more than once is slightly lower. However, it exhibits the same trend. Take a look at the FDOH report.

In any event both charts show the upward trend in percentage of people testing positive. Including the data on testing shows that such trend is occurring even though the level of testing has remained broadly constant.

(when I update the chart I will show both pos ratios but just remember the test data is all tests)

Damn, the data again! Those tree rings will knacker me yet.
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