COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

The five states that posted the most new confirmed cases yesterday according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us were, in no particular order, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Texas and California. They represent 1/3 of the US population. Let's look at two stats May 31 versus yesterday June 23, so just over 3 weeks, (1) active cases and (2) 7 day MA of confirmed new cases.

Florida +80%; +4.4x
Georgia +34%; +2.1x
Arizona +3.6x; +5.3x
Texas +2.5x; +3.3x
California +58%; +2.4x

 

[ronsatspokane]

The five states that posted the most new confirmed cases yesterday according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us were, in no particular order, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Texas and California. They represent 1/3 of the US population. Let's look at two stats May 31 versus yesterday June 23, so just over 3 weeks, (1) active cases and (2) 7 day MA of confirmed new cases.

Florida +80%; +4.4x
Georgia +34%; +2.1x
Arizona +3.6x; +5.3x
Texas +2.5x; +3.3x
California +58%; +2.4x

Looks like those "peaceful" protests are having an impact afterall.

 

[SGK]

Then it must have been a different type of protestor in NY...

 

[INTJ]

Then it must have been a different type of protestor in NY...

Given what happened in NY, they probably already had it..................

Until a vaccine comes out, hopefully starting this Fall, COVID will work its way through the population until it reaches its endemic phase. As such we need to keep protecting the vulnerable, social distancing, sanitizing, and washing our hands; though we absolutely cannot shut down the economy again.

 

[Dgd6mm]

Given what happened in NY, they probably already had it..................

Until a vaccine comes out, hopefully starting this Fall, COVID will work its way through the population until it reaches its endemic phase. As such we need to keep protecting the vulnerable, social distancing, sanitizing, and washing our hands; though we absolutely cannot shut down the economy again.

^^^^^^EXACTLY!!!

 

[Winny94]

Iowa? Are you serious? Population of just 3.2 million (a fraction of the greater Miami/Ft Lauderdale area) scattered over 56,272 square miles, a mere 56 people per square mile. Des Moines, the largest city, has a population of a mere 214k. A COVID carrier could probably walk around most of Iowa spitting and not infect anyone for days. Population density matters in human-to-human virus transmission. Maybe I missed something...

Meanwhile in Texas... https://www.ft.com/content/30bed502-6fb9-4587-9254-93ffbda8cc5b

Some snippets:

- contingency plans being tested as doctors sound the alarm
- at Texas Medical Center which describes itself as "the largest medical center in the world" COVID patients in hospital are up 47% from a week ago
- in the two fullest public hospitals in Houston, Dr Persse (Houston's chief public health officer) described patients on stretchers in emergency department corridors, some forced to double up in rooms meant for one, and stressed nurses everywhere.
- Harris county, which includes Houston, could run out of existing intensive care beds in 11 days, on current trends, although surge capacity would be enough to manage for a further 27 days after that.

So you admit you only focus on the metro/urban areas, and your absolutes are not absolute for most of the country? About 2/3 of the US population resides in rural or suburban areas (So Iowa would be a perfect sample for the majority of the US). NYC, Dallas, LA, Chicago, etc have zero bearing on the majority of the population in regards to this virus.

 

[JimT]

I spent a wonderful Father’s Day weekend in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Not many masks in use, people from all over the country, everything is open with social distancing in practice. Beautiful mountain country!!! Of course different demographics compared to the those places that are ok to visit, but you wouldn’t want to live there.

 

[Evan]

So you admit you only focus on the metro/urban areas, and your absolutes are not absolute for most of the country? About 2/3 of the US population resides in rural or suburban areas (So Iowa would be a perfect sample for the majority of the US). NYC, Dallas, LA, Chicago, etc have zero bearing on the majority of the population in regards to this virus.

That's simply not true. about 250 million of the 330 million living in the US live in or around an urban center. Most of the numbers people rely on to get their 1/3 value only count the city proper, when the surrounding areas often double or triple the population count. An example is the city and county of Denver, Colorado, which is frequently reported around 3 million but only represents a fraction of the total population in the surrounding area which can easily be stretched from Castle Rock to the south up to almost Longmont to the North, and from the foothills, including Boulder, out onto the plains. The true Denver area has a population exceeding 5 million. When extended this more accurate method of counting to every population center in the country, you get about 75% of the population living on 3% of the US's land.

 

[Winny94]

That's simply not true. about 250 million of the 330 million living in the US live in or around an urban center. Most of the numbers people rely on to get their 1/3 value only count the city proper, when the surrounding areas often double or triple the population count. An example is the city and county of Denver, Colorado, which is frequently reported around 3 million but only represents a fraction of the total population in the surrounding area which can easily be stretched from Castle Rock to the south up to almost Longmont to the North, and from the foothills, including Boulder, out onto the plains. The true Denver area has a population exceeding 5 million. When extended this more accurate method of counting to every population center in the country, you get about 75% of the population living on 3% of the US's land.

2/3 of the population lives in what is considered rural or suburban. No one mentioned anything about city limits. Do you know what suburban means?
Urban = Chicago
Suburban = aurua, Naperville, Joliet, Plainfield, etc. Those place have a population density of ~3000 sq/mi
You can't include those places and discount places like Des Moines. If you want to argue it's about total population, then throw out Wyoming, Idaho, Montana, etc when paroting spiking states since it takes a bakers dozens to ruin their percentages.

My entire point here is words matter and consistenty matters. Neither of which have been well articulated by a few members here and obviously most media outlets

 

[SGK]

So does using ya noggin

 

[Winny94]

So does using ya noggin

Solid rebuttal - when you cant rationalize, resort to insults.

 

[SGK]

"Texas is smashing it and rapidly rising up the leaderboard. It's got Illinois firmly in its sights and hot-spot Florida is finding it hard to keep up as they both move through the pack. New Jersey is struggling to keep its former pace as it heads down the back straight. While New York remains well out front it is fading fast. Arizona, currently 12th, is moving through the rear guard at a quickening pace and soon will be coming down the outside and into the top 10. Keep an eye on North Carolina also..."

"It's going to be great. You'll see. It's going to be the best the world has ever seen. The greatest."

 

[SGK]

So you admit you only focus on the metro/urban areas, and your absolutes are not absolute for most of the country? About 2/3 of the US population resides in rural or suburban areas (So Iowa would be a perfect sample for the majority of the US). NYC, Dallas, LA, Chicago, etc have zero bearing on the majority of the population in regards to this virus.

While I disagree with almost all of the above, and almost everything you've said so far, I merely counted that a likely factor in Iowa's favor is its very low population density. A friend of mine is from Mudgee in Australia. His Mum has a 20+ mile drive from her front door to her letterbox. If she doesn't go into town I suspect she doesn't have much to fear from COVID.

Also, I think you need to recheck your facts about urbanization is the USA. The split is circa 20% rural/80% urban according to the Census bureau. Over 80% of the population live in 3% of the land mass. (So that's roughly a pop density for the urbanites overall of 2250 per square mile, give or take.) Contrast Iowa (barely 1% of the US population) with, say Miami-Dade and Broward counties which is one large urban sprawl (everything from tiny apartments in the likes of Edgewater to 1.5 acre or more lots in places like Pinecrest). 3,754 sq miles (6.7% of the size of Iowa) and home to 4.7 million people: 1,244 people per square mile, more than 22 times the pop density of Iowa. It's not surprising that when a community of this density starts to break social distancing, either flagrantly or by simple necessity, that a virus such as COVID takes off. Were you to pack all of Iowa together around Des Moines you might well see the same thing. No doubt it will come to Des Moines and most of Iowa also but, thankfully, likely at a far slower pace. Their peak will probably come, in my view, in the second wave. Unless of course you can demonstrate that the people of Des Moines and greater Iowa have particular genetic or behavioral characteristics which make them less likely to contract COVID. Let's observe and see. It came later to Miami-Dade/Broward, Florida, Texas and Arizona as well. It's still very early days. But maybe a vaccine in a year or so will mean Des Moines and co get let off lightly.


PS: Love Jackson Hole. The Tetons remind me of the Remarkables. Almost bought a house there in 2009. I wish I had as I would have done well on the investment. Oh well. Not bad fishing.

 

[ronsatspokane]

"Texas is smashing it and rapidly rising up the leaderboard. It's got Illinois firmly in its sights and hot-spot Florida is finding it hard to keep up as they both move through the pack. New Jersey is struggling to keep its former pace as it heads down the back straight. While New York remains well out front but is fading fast. Arizona, currently 12th, is moving through the rear guard at a quickening pace and soon will be coming down the outside and into the top 10. Keep an eye on North Carolina also..."

"It's going to be great. You'll see. It's going to be the best the world has ever seen. The greatest."

Houston is the 4th largest city in the US. Relatively speaking, they seem to be doing well.

 

[SGK]

Their healthcare infrastructure got an extra couple of months' notice to prepare. Will be interesting for sure. The surge capacity will probably be critical, as will their ability to coordinate well with other State and national resources. Let's see. Hopefully they do indeed do well. So far Texas has done a good job maintaining the death rate (deaths per million of pop) at modest levels.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Their healthcare infrastructure got an extra couple of months' notice to prepare. Will be interesting for sure. The surge capacity will probably be critical, as will their ability to coordinate well with other State and national resources. Let's see. Hopefully they do indeed do well. So far Texas has done a good job maintaining the death rate (deaths per million of pop) at modest levels.

Perhaps it is a simple as not shipping their covid patients to nursing homes.

 

[Evan]

Houston is the 4th largest city in the US. Relatively speaking, they seem to be doing well.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/total-icu-bed-occupancy/
Their capacity is so far keeping up, but it's in the "moderate concern" category by their own reckoning and the trend needs to level off not to move them into "Warning" territory.

EDIT: That website has many interesting graphics: https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-2-week-projection-using-bed-occupancy-growth/ I trust the Texas Medical Center more than any of the news outlets that have more of a stake in making it sensational.

 

[SGK]

Perhaps it is a simple as not shipping their covid patients to nursing homes.

Or maybe Texans are just made of tougher stuff.

Hopefully lots of lessoned are being learnt - and heeded - as time goes by. This won't be the last pandemic we face. Lombardy admitted people to hospital too quickly.

Interesting knew finds in relation to genetic susceptibility to the virus, particularly ACE2 receptors, as well as blood type.

US orders of dexamethasone have soared in recent weeks after the University of Oxford study. Hopefully this really helps those in critical care and frees up beds. But demand has rocketed so much that only 54% of orders are being filled according to Vizient.

And Macy's provides another example of 'never let a good crisis go to waste.'

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/total-icu-bed-occupancy/
Their capacity is so far keeping up, but it's in the "moderate concern" category by their own reckoning and the trend needs to level off not to move them into "Warning" territory.

Consistent with my previously linked article. Post 1061. They are about to draw upon "surge" capacity. Note they exceed sustainable surge capacity in 12 days on current trends. Gonna be interesting.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Or maybe Texans are just made of tougher stuff.

Hopefully lots of lessoned are being learnt - and heeded - as time goes by. This won't be the last pandemic we face. Lombardy admitted people to hospital too quickly.

Interesting knew finds in relation to genetic susceptibility to the virus, particularly ACE2 receptors, as well as blood type.

US orders of dexamethasone have soared in recent weeks after the University of Oxford study. Hopefully this really helps those in critical care and frees up beds. But demand has rocketed so much that only 54% of orders are being filled according to Vizient.

And Macy's provides another example of 'never let a good crisis go to waste.'



Consistent with my previously linked article. Post 1061. They are about to draw upon "surge" capacity. Note they exceed sustainable surge capacity in 12 days on current trends. Gonna be interesting.

Interesting that you present that graph. Reminds me of the early days of the pandemic. In listening to the MSM this morning they are talking about how scary it is. An opportunity for more viewership and a continuation of the tragedy. Some folks seem to live their lives embracing tragedy as if it were a religion. Members of the MSM lead that charge. 10 minutes later they are still talking about how scary it is. The world is ending according to the MSM. Embrace the horror. Go out and engage in "peaceful" protest while you can...

That is not meant to minimize the virus. Each of us here could fall victim to it. The result will be that the herd will move on.

On a side note, the feckless governor of WA Jay Inslee has ordered that starting Friday all WA residents are required to wear masks. Guess which one I ordered:



P.S. 20 minutes later the topic has turned to money in the context of Covid and "peaceful protest". Who would have thunk it. Open your wallets boys and girls. It's all about money.

 

[SGK]

Interesting that you present that graph. Reminds me of the early days of the pandemic. In listening to the MSM this morning they are talking about how scary it is.

That's one of "the largest medical centers in the world" informing people of its current and near-term expected capacity utilization. Nothing more.

I got an update today on Baptist Health's capacity here in southern Florida. For now, all is good except for Homestead. Currently no COVID patients on ventilators (albeit there are other patients using some of them and they do, obviously, have COVID patients). There's room if your insurance will cover it. Phew. Carry on. Back to the sand bar.