COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[DRNewcomb]

This is the graph I follow. Reason: death certificates are among the most bogus documents that are still considered "official". All they can be counted on to get pretty much right is that someone died and when. The cause, names, other dates, marital status, etc. all relies on someone else to fill in.

https://public.tableau.com/views/CO...abs=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link

 

[Brians356]

This is the graph I follow. Reason: death certificates are among the most bogus documents that are still considered "official". All they can be counted on to get pretty much right is that someone died and when. The cause, names, other dates, marital status, etc. all relies on someone else to fill in.

https://public.tableau.com/views/CO...abs=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link

I like it, but it stops on 30 May. That last week shown indicates 0 excess deaths, and it will be interesting to follow the trend through the past two weeks, and forward.
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[SGK]

FDA revokes authorization for hydroxychloroquine. No surprises there.

On the other hand, dexamethasone is showing some early promise.

If you think COVID is under control in the US you're delusional. Big Bertha's foot is flexing on the bus's gas pedal. Brmm brrmmm.

Of course it must be getting cooler in Florida, Cali and Texas.... not.

 

[SGK]

I like it, but it ends on 30 May. That last week shown indicates 0 excess deaths, and it will be interesting to follow the trend through the past two weeks, and forward.
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On your theory of 'they were going to die this year anyway' you'd expect negative excess deaths soon enough...

 

[Brians356]

On your theory of 'they were going to die this year anyway' you'd expect negative excess deaths soon enough...

I take no credit. When 95% of deaths have either been in nursing homes and/or had comorbidities, it's staring me in the face.

Who has claimed in this thread that anything's "under control"? Nothing's ever under control except of God.
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[Winny94]

FDA revokes authorization for hydroxychloroquine. No surprises there.

On the other hand, dexamethasone is showing some early promise.

If you think COVID is under control in the US you're delusional. Big Bertha's foot is flexing on the bus's gas pedal. Brmm brrmmm.

Of course it must be getting cooler in Florida, Cali and Texas.... not.

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To be transparent, you should overlay those graphs w/ the number of tests being done as well.

 

[Dgd6mm]

We're doomed! HA....

 

[Brians356]

To be transparent, you should overlay those graphs w/ the number of tests being done as well.

A better proxy for a "surge" would be the percentage of tests coming back positive, but since testing was relatively sparse early on, it's problematic for looking at the big picture.

The best proxy might be hospitalizations, but again there's the "from" vs "with" Covid ambiguity. At least it's temporally less laggy than deaths, which can lag onset of disease by several weeks. At the end of the day I'm interested in deaths, because that's the scary prospect which triggers headlines and justifies lockdowns.
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[DRNewcomb]

One thing to keep in mind when looking at numbers of new cases is how the testing criteria have changed over time. In the beginning of the pandemic, you had to call your doctor and explain your symptoms, which had to include at least two known COVID-19 symptoms, to get permission to go to a testing site. Now, (at least in Mississippi) all you have to do is show up at a testing site and claim that you think you were exposed to someone who was infected. They are also testing a lot more people. This is turning up a lot of asymptomatic cases. The more you test, the more you find. The two statistics that are tracked closely by my state's officials are ICU beds and ventilators used. Which have been holding steady around 160 and 100, respectively.

 

[SGK]

The best proxy might be hospitalizations,

I asked the Florida Department of Health about this because while they track hospitalizations (admissions) they do NOT track recoveries i.e. they don't track the number of people currently in hospital with COVID. They responded:

"There is no official data on the number of recovered cases, since there is no standardized CDC guidance/definition on what “recovered” means in the context of COVID-19. Unless and until such guidance/definition is available, COVID-19-recovered reporting is not feasible."

Seems a bit BS given Worldometer and others seemed to track recoveries. You'd think they'd at least record when a person admitted for COVID was released from hospital.

The 7-day average for daily hospitalizations from COVID in Florida has climbed back towards 150 people per day. Apparently Florida has about 20,000 hospital beds of which about 1,700 are ICU beds. But commercial hospitals run relatively efficiently - an empty hospital bed is a seat that isn't earning revenue - and one shouldn't think of this as COVID capacity. If the system were running at, for example, 85% general ICU capacity that leaves just 250 ICU beds available for 'unexpected' demand. Those 250 beds disappear rather quickly when you consider a COVID ICU patient is there for 2-3 weeks.

 

[SGK]

On testing, the FDOH doesn't provide data for longer than two weeks in their reports and I've not seen it collated elsewhere. It's hard to see a trend in two weeks of data but it would seem from their report that the amount of testing is somewhat constant but the % testing positive seems to be climbing. So I don't think it's a case of 'simply more testing'.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/state/state_reports_latest.pdf

(BTW note that 15% of confirmed cases have been 55-64 year olds and this age group has represented 17% of hospitalizations and 9% of deaths.)

 

[Brians356]

Thanks @SGK for the resesrch.

I agree with @DRNewcomb that positive tests could be turning up a lot of asymptomatic cases. Those are dangerous but how contagious they are is yet another variable over which there is ongoing debate.
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[Winny94]

A better proxy for a "surge" would be the percentage of tests coming back positive, but since testing was relatively sparse early on, it's problematic for looking at the big picture.

The best proxy might be hospitalizations, but again there's the "from" vs "with" Covid ambiguity. At least it's temporally less laggy than deaths, which can lag onset of disease by several weeks. At the end of the day I'm interested in deaths, because that's the scary prospect which triggers headlines and justifies lockdowns.
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Hospitalizations are a terrible indicator. Hell, even "deaths" is a bad indicator until we can get a clear definition of what a covid death is. Dying w/ covid does not equal dying because of covid, a simple fact lost on many.

 

[Winny94]

On testing, the FDOH doesn't provide data for longer than two weeks in their reports and I've not seen it collated elsewhere. It's hard to see a trend in two weeks of data but it would seem from their report that the amount of testing is somewhat constant but the % testing positive seems to be climbing. So I don't think it's a case of 'simply more testing'.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/state/state_reports_latest.pdf

(BTW note that 15% of confirmed cases have been 55-64 year olds and this age group has represented 17% of hospitalizations and 9% of deaths.)

Florida needs to pull their heads out and start displaying cumulative data. How hard is it to display like this:

 

[SGK]

Dying w/ covid does not equal dying because of covid, a simple fact lost on many.

I'd say if you had COVID when you died there's a pretty could chance that COVID tipped the balance against you.

"Oh but they were going to die anyway." They all were. The question is when. The average life expectancy in the US is about 79 years. So, yeah, let's write off anyone aged over 79 'cos they were living on borrowed time anyway. And anyone just below 79 didn't have long to go either, right? Shall we draw the cutoff at 78? 75? 70? Hell, let's just use 65 and say they were going to kick the bucket in the next few years anyways. In any event they aren't contributing to the economy very much. Lazy retirees aye.

As for the rest, "co-morbidities are a huge factor" I hear you say. About 40% of the over-20yr old US population is obese. 30% suffer from hypertension.

Gee, doesn't sound like very many people at all have died from COVID...

 

[Brians356]

@SGK then "excess deaths" is the least ambiguous measure of impact on society. An instantaneous indicator of a surge is not so simple to choose due to all the variables discussed here.

Next time you talk to a FL official, as what percentage of new cases are in the Hispanic community. In my county a Hispanic is 5x more likey to contract it than a "white" person. This isn't a pure biological race issue, it's a social issue.
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[Winny94]

I'd say if you had COVID when you died there's a pretty could chance that COVID tipped the balance against you.

And thats the problem - way too many people who have zero medical knowledge propagating that they "think". (same could be said for people who have little understanding on statistics)

 

[SGK]

Agreed re looking at excessive rate of death

I've already posted info for Florida re racial split. You have to remember, though, that Miami-Dade, for example, is 70% Hispanic. According to FDOH, Hispanics represent 36% of confirmed cases, 35% of hospitalizations and just 24% of deaths. Non-hispanics 43%, 61% and 69% respectively (with unknown making up the rest). So one might conclude superficially that Hispanics are 2.9x less likely to die that Non-Hispanics. My colleagues here argue that's because they're predominantly Cuban in Florida...

 

[JimT]

I'd say if you had COVID when you died there's a pretty could chance that COVID tipped the balance against you.

"Oh but they were going to die anyway." They all were. The question is when. The average life expectancy in the US is about 79 years. So, yeah, let's write off anyone aged over 79 'cos they were living on borrowed time anyway. And anyone just below 79 didn't have long to go either, right? Shall we draw the cutoff at 78? 75? 70? Hell, let's just use 65 and say they were going to kick the bucket in the next few years anyways. In any event they aren't contributing to the economy very much. Lazy retirees aye.

As for the rest, "co-morbidities are a huge factor" I hear you say. About 40% of the over-20yr old US population is obese. 30% suffer from hypertension.

Gee, doesn't sound like very many people at all have died from COVID...

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2010/08/98172/social-support-key-nursing-home-length-stay-death

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6143238/

 

[Brians356]

I've already posted info for Florida re racial split. You have to remember, though, that Miami-Dade, for example, is 70% Hispanic. According to FDOH, Hispanics represent 36% of confirmed cases, 35% of hospitalizations and just 24% of deaths. Non-hispanics 43%, 61% and 69% respectively (with unknown making up the rest). So one might conclude superficially that Hispanics are 2.9x less likely to die that Non-Hispanics. My colleagues here argue that's because they're predominantly Cuban in Florida...

I was referring to new cases, not deaths. Hispanics are much less likely to die from Covid-19 once they catch it than whites here, almost certainly because the typical white patient is much older. Here the Hispanics are more recently arrived, younger families, not too many elderly Hispanics or multi-generational families. I play music in local LTC facilities and the residents (by eyeball inspection) are 95% white.
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