COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[Brians356]

My club's board has voted to resume new member intake and the required range safety briefings. The Chief RSO has asked the RSOs to sign up for the briefings added to make up for those missed over the last two months. Part of my reply was:

"I'd like to help out with the resumption of safety briefings but:
1. I have to realize that I'm XX years old and at higher risk of dying if I contract COVID-19. In Mississippi, about 6% of people who have contracted the disease have died, most of them over 60.
2. Shooters tend to have a high proportion of belligerent libertarians and tin-foil-hat-wearing conspiracy theorists who aren't going to be told they have to wear a mask, stay 6' apart, etc.

These two points make me very leery of being in the first penguin to take a dive in the ocean."

QED

Understandable. I would say, however, that with summer here, any group activity that can be conducted entirely outdoors, with reasonable distancing and hygiene, is roughly ten times safer than indoors. There's no 100% safe, though, while this bug is prevalent.
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[INTJ]

People need to be free to make their own decision, not have a one-size-fits-all government mandated directive.

 

[INTJ]

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/is-covid-19-dying-out.php

 

[Brians356]

In Mississippi, about 6% of people who have contracted the disease have died

Actually, a 4.7% death rate (91-divoc.com 5/24/2020).

For comparison, here are Covid-19 death rates in several states of interest to me:

New York:___8.1%
Washington:_5.4%
Nevada:____ 4.8%
Montana:___ 3.3%
Idaho:______3.0%

PS However, the death rates are undoubtedly much lower across the board, since many have been infected and recovered, but never tested and confirmed to have Covid-19.
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[Brians356]

From PowerLineBlog (John Hinderaker):

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation has become famous for producing a COVID-19 model that is widely referred to by policymakers and journalists. I have described the IHME model as useless as a guide to governors and other decision-makers, for several reasons.

First, because it runs out on August 4, by which time it assumes that fatalities will have been flat for some time. What happens after August 4? Is the epidemic over, or will it resume in the Fall? The model gives us no answer. Second, the model’s predictions of fatalities in individual states have fluctuated so wildly–e.g., declining by more than 90 percent in just four days–that no policymaker could properly rely on them. Third, while proclaiming that it “assumes social distancing,” it gives no guidance as to what will happen if a particular state reopens its economy–the key point on which governors need information.
IHME admits that its prior assumption that more liberal policies would lead to more fatalities was wrong:

With mobility rising throughout the US over the last several weeks, our team had expected to see large increases in reported COVID-19 cases and deaths in more recent days. After all, the time lag between heightened mobility and potential rise in COVID-19 infections is approximately two weeks. Yet such a surge has yet to materialize, suggesting that increases in human mobility alone may not fully capture risk of transmission.

This has been obvious in states like Florida, where liberal journalists wrote that the state was conducting an experiment in “human sacrifice” when Governor DeSantis relaxed his shutdown order.* Those predictions turned out to be entirely wrong, and Florida has been a shining example of how to deal with the COVID-19 epidemic.

The IHME team is now focusing on face mask use as possibly explaining why the disease hasn’t picked up in the wake of relaxed economic and social dictates. Good luck with that.

IHME has moved toward expressing COVID fatalities, by default, as a percentage of population rather than in raw numbers, although those are still available. Perhaps the most helpful item on the current IHME web site is this map, which shows COVID fatalities per 100,000 of population in each state. At the IHME web site you can hover over each state for information. But the map pretty much speaks for itself.
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More here:

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/05/revisiting-the-ihme-model-still-useless.php
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[DRNewcomb]

Actually, a 4.7% death rate (91-divoc.com 5/24/2020).
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The percentages have changed in the last week or so because the number of positive tests have increased from about 10,000 to 13,400.

 

[SGK]

PS However, the death rates are undoubtedly much lower across the board, since many have been infected and recovered, but never tested and confirmed to have Covid-19.
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Small solace to those who find themselves sick and indeed motivated to go get tested or, worse, end up in hospital.

Initial antibody testing vs recorded deaths is tracking above initial expectations of a circa 1% overall death rate (the initial Imperial College report assumed an overall IFR of 0.9% - see below) and placing it more in the 1.2-1.5% IFR.

 

[Brians356]

Small solace to those who find themselves sick and indeed motivated to go get tested or, worse, end up in hospital.

Initial antibody testing vs recorded deaths is tracking above initial expectations of a circa 1% overall death rate (the initial Imperial College report assumed an overall IFR of 0.9% - see below) and placing it more in the 1.2-1.5% IFR.

In early February, modelers at Imperial College London estimated that around 1% of infections of COVID-19 would ultimately result in death. That number, which is about 10 times higher than the seasonal flu, shocked much of the world, including the U.K. government and most of the 50 U.S. state governments, into shutting down major swaths of their economies and placing many of their citizens under strict stay-at-home orders.

Those high estimates have persisted in recent months. In early March, White House adviser Anthony Fauci said the disease was "10 times more lethal than the seasonal flu." The Trump administration would eventually go on to urge temporary severe mitigation measures across the United States, including pulling children from school, limiting gatherings to fewer than 10 people, and refraining from eating at restaurants and bars.

Over the past several weeks, however, the estimates of the fatality rate have brightened considerably. Driven in part by large-scale serology tests, which have consistently indicated that the disease is far more widespread and consequently less deadly than it initially seemed, scientists have lately been revising their fatality rate assumptions down significantly.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week continued that trend, releasing a list of what it called "COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios." That document laid out five different scenarios for public health experts and government officials to consider, one of which the agency called its "current best estimate" of the parameters of the viral pandemic.

That scenario states that the overall fatality rate of infections that show symptoms is around 0.4%. Yet the CDC says it estimates that around 35% of all infectiouns are asymptomatic, meaning that the total infection fatality rate under the agency's "best estimate" scenario is around 0.26%, or a little more than twice that of the seasonal flu.

Complete story here:

https://justthenews.com/politics-po...fection-fatality-rate-could-be-low-026-nearly
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[SGK]

Some rough numbers. Population of New York State 19.45 million (2019). Latest study, a randomized sample of 15,000 people indicated an overall statewide 12.3% antibody rate (varying between 1.2% in North Country to 19.9% in NYC). COVID deaths in NY State: 29k. 29k/19.45m *12.3% = 1.2% IFR.

A similar pattern emerges from studies in Europe.

 

[Brians356]

Some rough numbers.

You're not kidding! Your calculated IFR is nearly 5x the CDC's latest best estimate of total IFR of 0.26%. Color me skeptical.

But New York is what we might call the outlier. New York state alone accounts for nearly 1/3 of all US Covid-19 deaths. But NY State has 62 counties: 34 counties have had less than 20 deaths from the virus, 5 have had zero. The greater NY City metro area is the Chernobyl in the US.
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[SGK]

Source?

As I noted, similar antibody studies in Europe have come up with similar results.

Which part of my calculation is incorrect? NY State has certainly had more exposure/infections in no doubt due in part to its population density in the NYC area. That is also indicated by the overall average - and spread - in the antibody test results. I doubt it is an outlier with respect to the IFR of those infections unless you think there's something peculiar about the genetic makeup of the population. NYC is an example of what can happen when one or more carriers set off a chain of events in a densely populated area. There are lots of people left in NYC that haven't yet been exposed. The New York metropolitan area comprises some 20 million people. A similar IFR an infection of 60% of people would be, obviously, 5x as many dead.

PS: circa 22% of the population of Florida live in Miami-Dade and Broward counties. These counties have only begun to relax restrictions in the last week. While some restaurants opened at the end of last week, many businesses remain closed or have people working from home. They will open gradually. Anecdotally, traffic levels in the Coral Gables area have risen in recent weeks but they're still well below even normal 'no-school' days. And of course schools remain closed. Car park occupancy in my office building is about 1/3 of normal (up from about 15%). So I'm not at all surprised there hasn't been a rebound in cases - yet. We shall see, but it's not yet the time to draw conclusions. Here's hoping this last weekend's awful weather washed all the COVID away - it certainly meant people refrained from co-mingling outside, on the beaches (which remain closed) and at bars and restaurants as they might usually do.

 

[Brians356]

@SGK, which part of CDC's calculation is incorrect? A 5x discrepancy means one party is very much wrong.
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[SGK]

I just read their "planning scenarios" document. Interesting. They did not provide the background to their parameters which clash markedly with recently published serology studies both in the US and Europe. The document notes it is for planning purposes only and "• Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19." Nonetheless, here's hoping they are right.

 

[Brians356]

@SGK,

Amen.

Chris Wallace was grilling the governor of Arkansas on the Sunday morning Fox show, challenging him to defend never locking down his state, pointing out some recent spikes in new cases. Now look at that map I posted yesterday. What is there for the governor to apologize for? Arkansas is the shining example in that whole quarter of the country. Wallace does no real homework, he just regurgitates alarmist talking points handed him.
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[ronsatspokane]

I just read their "planning scenarios" document. Interesting. They did not provide the background to their parameters which clash markedly with recently published serology studies both in the US and Europe. The document notes it is for planning purposes only and "• Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19." Nonetheless, here's hoping they are right.

That seems to be the basis of science across the world these days, "hope". No fact, only hope. Many on the left hoping for the worst. Bottom line is that everyone is full of shite. The actual science won't be in for 3-5 years. The only thing we know at this point is that cramming infected patients into nursing homes is a bad idea. We can thank New York for making that "fact" obvious to even the least astute observer.

 

[INTJ]

You know, I don't mind that errors were made in forecasts and counterproductive actions were taken. What irritates me is these seems to be very few course changes when better data came in and we learned more about how to effectively fight this.

And I am still puzzled as to why the base logic wasn't that this pandemic would be similar the others. The narrative was COVID was unlike anything else......

 

[SGK]

And I am still puzzled as to why the base logic wasn't that this pandemic would be similar the others. The narrative was COVID was unlike anything else......

It was. The closest comparative was 1918 'flu pandemic. But for this one we've had the opportunity to react differently and more quickly. The narrative was COVID is likely to be "unlike anything else in our lifetimes." The last three words are important. It was the idiots who claimed this wasn't as bad as seasonal 'flu or annual driving fatalities that had the wrong comparator.

We're only a few months in and have a long way to go. It would be a brave and optimistic person who doesn't expect a significant second wave of this thing, particularly in the US. At the end of February there were supposedly just 15 or so confirmed cases in the US. Now 1.15 million confirmed cases are being tracked and, despite encouraging recent trends, that number continues to grow. Sure more of those confirmed cases have less severe symptoms and are less likely to die (deaths are now just 17% of cases that have reached an outcome) but there's still a lot more people carrying the disease than there was in February. We need the number of confirmed and unresolved cases to fall dramatically. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

We all want things to return to normal but that's going to be difficult for many people for many more months to come.

Carnival Cruise Lines is restarting services on August 1. I hear the prices are deeply discounted. Time for that trip of a lifetime?

 

[ronsatspokane]

You know, I don't mind that errors were made in forecasts and counterproductive actions were taken. What irritates me is these seems to be very few course changes when better data came in and we learned more about how to effectively fight this.

And I am still puzzled as to why the base logic wasn't that this pandemic would be similar the others. The narrative was COVID was unlike anything else......

Just watching the MSM this morning and it is pretty clear as to why the narrative "unlike anything else" was invented. It's not about science, it's about furthering the collectivist agenda. As the death toll climbs the MSM and leftist politicians are pushing for an unprecedented expansion of the welfare state as well as laws that regulate individual behavior. They are even comparing the changes they advocate to FDR's response to the great depression. Was just watching this pitch on CBS not 5 minutes ago.

It's all about the humanity. Basic income, free medical care and anything that expands dependency on government is the agenda. Not the least of which is implementation of the green new deal and the destruction of the global economy. They are needed to save the planet and save us from ourselves. And none of this can be done while the American public remains armed, only the employee's of the public (government) are responsible enough to have firearms. Under supervision of the political aristocracy of course. Mark my words, on the left this election is going to be about how the pandemic points out the need for significantly more government and government control over the economy and the lives of its citizens. They will not couch it in those terms however. It will be about the love for their fellow man, it will be about the children, it will be about the disadvantaged, it will be about the suffering of illegal aliens, it will be about the touching stories of survivors. All of which require MO Money and more control.

 

[ronsatspokane]

It was. The closest comparative was 1918 'flu pandemic. But for this one we've had the opportunity to react differently and more quickly. The narrative was COVID is likely to be "unlike anything else in our lifetimes." The last three words are important. It was the idiots who claimed this wasn't as bad as seasonal 'flu or annual driving fatalities that had the wrong comparator.

We're only a few months in and have a long way to go. It would be a brave and optimistic person who doesn't expect a significant second wave of this thing, particularly in the US. At the end of February there were supposedly just 15 or so confirmed cases in the US. Now 1.15 million confirmed cases are being tracked and, despite encouraging recent trends, that number continues to grow. Sure more of those confirmed cases have less severe symptoms and are less likely to die (deaths are now just 17% of cases that have reached an outcome) but there's still a lot more people carrying the disease than there was in February. We need the number of confirmed and unresolved cases to fall dramatically. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

We all want things to return to normal but that's going to be difficult for many people for many more months to come.

Carnival Cruise Lines is restarting services on August 1. I hear the prices are deeply discounted. Time for that trip of a lifetime?

The big lie: "We all want things to return to normal". Nothing could be further from the truth.

 

[SGK]

Just watching the MSM this morning and it is pretty clear as to why the narrative "unlike anything else" was invented. It's not about science, it's about furthering the collectivist agenda.

Man, you crack me up. A few drops short of a pint. How's the air way out there on the far edge of rational?