COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[INTJ]

Very different places. Different population density and population movement dynamics. Miami has, for example, next to no public transportation. In contrast, you can't live in Manhattan without using it. And clearly they had very different shocks to deal with.

BTW the Sun newspaper is better known for its topless pg 3 girls than the quality of its reporting...

EDIT: as for antibody testing, Miami-Dade and Broward county combined have conducted swab tests equivalent to a mere 3.5% of population. Those are static tests with negative results only valid as at the time of the test. Just under 12% tested positive. (I had to pass by one of the testing stations (Marlins Park) the day before yesterday. Traffic for a drive-through test was queued up for miles.)

I don't think it's even possible to get an antibody test even if you were prepared to pay for one. The UK has yet to source reliable antibody testing equipment. So I haven't heard of a lot of reliable data regarding population infection ratios. Guesstimates for the UK are still sub 10%. Even Sweden's state epidemiologist, where they've largely 'let her rip' speculates that the most populous cities of Sweden such as Stockholm will only achieve 40% immunity by the end of May.

Judging from friends in the UK who have had this virus - most were absolutely flattened and bed-ridden for between 3 and 5 weeks - it's an extraordinarily optimistic over 40-year old who thinks they've had COVID-19 without suffering significantly noticeable symptoms. 76.8% of respondents in this forum's demographic profile poll were 50 and over; 49% 60 and over...

However the people in NY didn't get the virus from the subway. 66% got it while sheltering in place at home and then what 18% got it in nursing homes? Most infections that had symptoms severe enough for people to get tested did not happen to people out and about.

Regardless, the more important measures are deaths and hospitalizations, not infections. Infection rates will increase as testing expands. Probably by a lot.

I reject argument from authority. Most all newspapers and news magazines are little more than partisan rags these days. The Sun quotes data from East Anglia University, and it's likely they are giving actual numbers.

To avoid falling into the lazy logical fallacy of "argument from authority," we must evaluate the actual data and not ascribe any more or less credibility to it based on the source. The "experts" have been so wrong so much throughout this crisis that we MUST evaluate all into using data and logic.

 

[Bc'z]

Very different places. Different population density and population movement dynamics. Miami has, for example, next to no public transportation. In contrast, you can't live in Manhattan without using it. And clearly they had very different shocks to deal with.

BTW the Sun newspaper is better known for its topless pg 3 girls than the quality of its reporting...

EDIT: as for antibody testing, Miami-Dade and Broward county combined have conducted swab tests equivalent to a mere 3.5% of population. Those are static tests with negative results only valid as at the time of the test. Just under 12% tested positive. (I had to pass by one of the testing stations (Marlins Park) the day before yesterday. Traffic for a drive-through test was queued up for miles.)

I don't think it's even possible to get an antibody test even if you were prepared to pay for one. The UK has yet to source reliable antibody testing equipment. So I haven't heard of a lot of reliable data regarding population infection ratios. Guesstimates for the UK are still sub 10%. Even Sweden's state epidemiologist, where they've largely 'let her rip' speculates that the most populous cities of Sweden such as Stockholm will only achieve 40% immunity by the end of May.

Judging from friends in the UK who have had this virus - most were absolutely flattened and bed-ridden for between 3 and 5 weeks - it's an extraordinarily optimistic over 40-year old who thinks they've had COVID-19 without suffering significantly noticeable symptoms. 76.8% of respondents in this forum's demographic profile poll were 50 and over; 49% 60 and over...

What? Wait a minute!
You mean to tell me the Sun has topless chicks on page 3?
I need a subscription.

 

[JimT]

Hey SGK, do you think the Germans are in Trump’s pocket?

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3931126

 

[Laurie]

Hey SGK, do you think the Germans are in Trump’s pocket?

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3931126

This is a widely quoted news item in the UK right now and displays yet again how the EU bureaucracy appears to pursue agendas that suit its strategic worldviews even if they work against the interests of member states and populations. (Of far greater significance for the first time ever in the EU's near 70-year history a member state's supreme constitutional court overruled EU policy / actions and stated explicitly that its national law takes supremacy over EU policy and law - a complete reversal of all developments in recent years. Yet again this was Germany and it is over Brussels' plans to bail out weaker EU countries' economies which are being devastated by Covid-19.)

Brussels is obsessed with cosying up to China and won't willingly do anything to upset the ruling CCC government there. This is partly about grabbing onto the coat-tails of what the Eurocrats see as the emerging dominant economic world power, but also reflects an inbuilt anti-Americanism that runs through the EU establishment and elite, not to mention many European domestic politicians and parties. This is long established, but has become more rabid during the Trump presidency.

The pre-Brexit UK Conservative government led by David Cameron spurred on by enthusiastic China-collaborating Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne were in the same camp in economics at any rate, and we somehow seem to be carrying on down the same road even after their departure given the inexplicable UK-Huawie telecoms equipment deal that just predates Covid-19's emergence.

These economics led policies have often been compared to the 1930s era appeasement of Nazi Germany in that short-term gains / fears of the powerful override all other considerations not to mention plain basic morals.

Interesting subject though this is, I don't see it having much to do with the subject of this thread. We are where we are with Covid-19 and getting current and future responses right is much more important right now than speculating about whether the Chinese did or didn't engineer a cover-up. Investigating past events for primarily political reasons is a distraction we don't need. There may well be a time and place to look hard at the PRC's actions at some time in the future when (if??) we get Covid-19 fully under control.

 

[ronsatspokane]

This is a widely quoted news item in the UK right now and displays yet again how the EU bureaucracy appears to pursue agendas that suit its strategic worldviews even if they work against the interests of member states and populations. (Of far greater significance for the first time ever in the EU's near 70-year history a member state's supreme constitutional court overruled EU policy / actions and stated explicitly that its national law takes supremacy over EU policy and law - a complete reversal of all developments in recent years. Yet again this was Germany and it is over Brussels' plans to bail out weaker EU countries' economies which are being devastated by Covid-19.)

Brussels is obsessed with cosying up to China and won't willingly do anything to upset the ruling CCC government there. This is partly about grabbing onto the coat-tails of what the Eurocrats see as the emerging dominant economic world power, but also reflects an inbuilt anti-Americanism that runs through the EU establishment and elite, not to mention many European domestic politicians and parties. This is long established, but has become more rabid during the Trump presidency.

The pre-Brexit UK Conservative government led by David Cameron spurred on by enthusiastic China-collaborating Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne were in the same camp in economics at any rate, and we somehow seem to be carrying on down the same road even after their departure given the inexplicable UK-Huawie telecoms equipment deal that just predates Covid-19's emergence.

These economics led policies have often been compared to the 1930s era appeasement of Nazi Germany in that short-term gains / fears of the powerful override all other considerations not to mention plain basic morals.

Interesting subject though this is, I don't see it having much to do with the subject of this thread. We are where we are with Covid-19 and getting current and future responses right is much more important right now than speculating about whether the Chinese did or didn't engineer a cover-up. Investigating past events for primarily political reasons is a distraction we don't need. There may well be a time and place to look hard at the PRC's actions at some time in the future when (if??) we get Covid-19 fully under control.

I would disagree that understanding what China did is not important. When it comes to preparations for future pandemics, an understanding of what happened, when it happened and why it happened is critical. For example, we now know that China shutdown internal travel but let international travel continue. That act ended up limiting the spread within China while spreading the virus around the world. While this was going on, China was in the process of cornering the market on medical supplies needed for front line workers while telling the world that it was contained and not a problem all the while WHO was parroting Chinese propaganda.

How does this impact public policy and preparedness going forward? Seems pretty clear, the world cannot trust what China says or what the WHO says. Rather we need to watch what they are doing. Using their actions rather than their words as a leading indicator and react immediately. In this case international borders should have been closed the moment China shutdown travel within China. That act could have saved a lot of lives. As it was, Trump was called racist and xenophobic for shutting it down when he did.

Now the question of, did the virus escape from the lab or did it originate in a wet market that presumably did not sell the bats which are known to be the source of this virus? An answer to that question will determine where to focus preventative efforts and monitoring activity. You don't want to treat a cough by lancing a boil on someones ass do you?

 

[ronsatspokane]

My immediate thought too on seeing the link. The SUN isn't one's usual first call to obtain hard facts and reasoned assessments on complex subjects even if it is a master of the snappy (and often bad taste) headline like the notorious 'GOTCHA' when the British nuclear attack submarine HMS Conqueror sank the Argentinian cruiser ARA General Belgrano at the start of the Falklands War.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?sou...BAgKEAE&biw=1240&bih=622#imgrc=0QaqnT2rJaBikM

.... or the equally well known 'Up Yours Delors', to a French politician who was then President of the EU Commission.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/dullhunk/437565574

Let's just say that if the Sun were an AccurateShooter Forum member @Forum Boss would likely have banned it by now for serial offensiveness to others!

Of course it must be said that the 'Up Yours Delors' attitude of the day proved to be prophetic.

 

[sdean]

I would disagree that understanding what China did is not important. When it comes to preparations for future pandemics, an understanding of what happened, when it happened and why it happened is critical. For example, we now know that China shutdown internal travel but let international travel continue. That act ended up limiting the spread within China while spreading the virus around the world. While this was going on, China was in the process of cornering the market on medical supplies needed for front line workers while telling the world that it was contained and not a problem all the while WHO was parroting Chinese propaganda.

How does this impact public policy and preparedness going forward? Seems pretty clear, the world cannot trust what China says or what the WHO says. Rather we need to watch what they are doing. Using their actions rather than their words as a leading indicator and react immediately. In this case international borders should have been closed the moment China shutdown travel within China. That act could have saved a lot of lives. As it was, Trump was called racist and xenophobic for shutting it down when he did.

Now the question of, did the virus escape from the lab or did it originate in a wet market that presumably did not sell the bats which are known to be the source of this virus? An answer to that question will determine where to focus preventative efforts and monitoring activity. You don't want to treat a cough by lancing a boil on someones ass do you?

I don’t see a need to study this. Just do not believe or trust anything from China. Just the American thing to do now is blame everyone but ourselves. Nothing will change in China. Just quit listening or dealing with these people. They intend on ruling the world. None of this is new.

 

[Laurie]

Of course it must be said that the 'Up Yours Delors' attitude of the day proved to be prophetic.

Actually I agreed with the sentiment at the time, .............. but the wording ??

 

[Laurie]

I don’t see a need to study this. Just do not believe or trust anything from China.

Exactly so! The CCC as a body was inherently malign and untrustworthy pre-Covid. Nothing has changed, or if it has certainly not for the better.

 

[INTJ]

https://www.justfacts.com/news_covid-19_anxiety_lockdowns_life_destroyed_saved

"Combining the first two key figures of this study, anxiety from responses to Covid-19 has impacted 42,873,663 adults and will rob them of an average of 1.3 years of life, thus destroying 55.7 million years of life.


Combining the third key figure of this study with data on Covid-19 deaths, a maximum of 616,590 lives might be saved by the current lockdowns, and the disease robs an average of 12 years of life from each of its victims, which means that the current lockdowns can save no more than 7.4 million years of life.


In other words, the anxiety from reactions to Covid-19—such as business shutdowns, stay-at-home orders, media exaggerations, and legitimate concerns about the virus—will extinguish at least seven times more years of life than can possibly be saved by the lockdowns.


Again, all of these figures minimize deaths from anxiety and maximize lives saved by lockdowns."

 

[Brians356]

as for antibody testing, Miami-Dade and Broward county combined have conducted swab tests equivalent to a mere 3.5% of population.

An antibody test requires a blood sample. So there's something awkward about that sentence.
-

 

[Brians356]

However the people in NY didn't get the virus from the subway. 66% got it while sheltering in place at home and then what 18% got it in nursing homes?

The "66% had stayed at home" bombshell from Gov. Cuomo a few days ago referred specifically to the "newest cases" and I believe was only for the most recent ~1000 cases. There's some investigation required to sort out the validity of that data, specifically how many of those people were truly strictly quarantined.
-

 

[JimT]

This is a widely quoted news item in the UK right now and displays yet again how the EU bureaucracy appears to pursue agendas that suit its strategic worldviews even if they work against the interests of member states and populations. (Of far greater significance for the first time ever in the EU's near 70-year history a member state's supreme constitutional court overruled EU policy / actions and stated explicitly that its national law takes supremacy over EU policy and law - a complete reversal of all developments in recent years. Yet again this was Germany and it is over Brussels' plans to bail out weaker EU countries' economies which are being devastated by Covid-19.)

Brussels is obsessed with cosying up to China and won't willingly do anything to upset the ruling CCC government there. This is partly about grabbing onto the coat-tails of what the Eurocrats see as the emerging dominant economic world power, but also reflects an inbuilt anti-Americanism that runs through the EU establishment and elite, not to mention many European domestic politicians and parties. This is long established, but has become more rabid during the Trump presidency.

The pre-Brexit UK Conservative government led by David Cameron spurred on by enthusiastic China-collaborating Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne were in the same camp in economics at any rate, and we somehow seem to be carrying on down the same road even after their departure given the inexplicable UK-Huawie telecoms equipment deal that just predates Covid-19's emergence.

These economics led policies have often been compared to the 1930s era appeasement of Nazi Germany in that short-term gains / fears of the powerful override all other considerations not to mention plain basic morals.

Interesting subject though this is, I don't see it having much to do with the subject of this thread. We are where we are with Covid-19 and getting current and future responses right is much more important right now than speculating about whether the Chinese did or didn't engineer a cover-up. Investigating past events for primarily political reasons is a distraction we don't need. There may well be a time and place to look hard at the PRC's actions at some time in the future when (if??) we get Covid-19 fully under control.

If these guys and girls can do it I don’t see why it’s not appropriate for the world at large to look into China’s actions and goals TODAY. Why wait till more people are silenced ??!!!!!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN2253J4

 

[Brians356]

If these guys and girls can do it ...
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN2253J4

Seems like all girls to me.
-

 

[ronsatspokane]

Actually I agreed with the sentiment at the time, .............. but the wording ??

I like the phraseology you Brits use. When you folks want to insult someone it can either be the kind of thing that leaves them scratching their heads thinking about it for a moment before they realize or it can be in your face with a Shakespearean turn of phrase. That's in your face and I thought it was kind of funny. Along the continuum of to be or not to be, that was clearly not to be with a nice rhyme.

 

[ronsatspokane]

I don’t see a need to study this. Just do not believe or trust anything from China. Just the American thing to do now is blame everyone but ourselves. Nothing will change in China. Just quit listening or dealing with these people. They intend on ruling the world. None of this is new.

No argument from me. When it comes to our mistakes, the list is long and starts with the fact that mother Hubbards cupboards were bare with respect to the stockpile. It had been drained during the H1N1 scare and never restocked at the national level as well as at state and local levels. Then there is our stupidity when it comes to the supply chain. Who thought it was a good idea to base strategic companies in the land most likely to be the source of pandemics and who can cut off those supplies on a word. Pharmaceuticals and medical supplies being only the tip of that iceberg. The answer to that question can be found in the nearest mirror. Anyone who wanted cheaper prices and/or higher returns is to blame. That'd be everyone. Then we have to look at the great divide, the divide between the left and the right that is. Pelosi telling people to come down to China town SF to party as Trump was shutting down travel from China, De Blasio telling New Yorkers to get out and see a movie as the NBA was shutting down its season, Bidden calling Trump a racist and Xenophobe for shutting down travel. Now it becomes a pissing contest of a blame game with the potential that none of the lessons learned will translate to prudent public policy changes. We are our own worst enemy in many respects.

 

[SGK]

An antibody test requires a blood sample. So there's something awkward about that sentence.
-

Yes of course. I went on to say

I don't think it's even possible to get an antibody test even if you were prepared to pay for one.

My point was that swab testing has been minimal let alone antibody testing.

The UK now, finally, feels they can source a reliable antibody test via Roche. I wonder how long it will take for the US to roll out general public antibody testing in scale.

 

[Mark W]

I just want to know when this went from “flatting the curve” while this thing ran its course to saving every possible life by crushing the economy while we wait for a cure!!

People die from a lot of unpreventable things every day all over the world and we don’t live in fear. I’ll be cautious, but I won’t live in fear over this virus either. It’s time to get things moving again!!!!

 

[SGK]

Even in hard-hit Spain just 5% of Spaniards are estimated to have had COVID:

https://english.elpais.com/society/...paniards-have-contracted-the-coronavirus.html

Herd immunity is a long way off

 

[Brians356]

Even in hard-hit Spain just 5% of Spaniards are estimated to have had COVID:

https://english.elpais.com/society/...paniards-have-contracted-the-coronavirus.html

Herd immunity is a long way off

Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) is not determined by a hard and fast constant or even well-defined range such as "60 to 70 percent exposure". In Stockholm County, Sweden (not "locked down"), HIT appears to have been reached by mid-April with only about 17% of the population having been infected.

A recent paper (Gomes et al. [1]) suggests that variation between individuals in their susceptibility to infection and their propensity to infect others can cause the HIT to be much lower than it is in a homogeneous population. Standard simple compartmental epidemic models take no account of such variability. And the model used in the Ferguson20 study, while much more complex, appears only to take into account inhomogeneity arising from a very limited set of factors – notably geographic separation from other individuals and household size – with only a modest resulting impact on the growth of the epidemic. That would explain why the HIT appears to have been passed in Stockholm by mid April. The same seems likely to be the case in other major cities and regions that have been badly affected by COVID-19.

1. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v2
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