We absolutely did not need a two-month national shutdown.
First, you have no idea what the alternate scenario would have looked like.
Second, there hasn't been a national shutdown. Far, far from it. Many, many businesses have continued to operate, mine included. Many of those have been surprised as to how effectively they've been able to operate without their labor force heading into an office each day. Elementary schools have continued to teach pupils. There are winners and losers. Walmart, for example, has boomed as have companies like Amazon (thank God for that innovation). Companies with an inability to adapt have suffered but that's always the case when events force a need for change.
Also, a lot of already existing trends have merely been accelerated. The continued migration to online shopping, cloud kitchens and delivery (who needs ugly strip malls and all that travel back and forth to the grocery store?), working from home (flexibility of labor, less need for over-priced office space), telecommunications (flexibility of labor, less need for business travel), the need for greater automation and robotics in everything from manufacturing to farming. These are just a few examples.
The greatest casualties remain social-related consumption and leisure. They'll bounce back eventually albeit not any time soon. In the interim, many families may well even have benefited from greater time together, playing, talking and exercising. Of course, others have been impacted by change and all the more so because that change has come swiftly and to a lot of families at once.
Demand would have slumped, and significant job losses incurred, with or without government directives. Such is the nature of a health crisis which affects the ability of people to work and play closely alongside each other, making them
want to stay at home. (And smart companies make use of a crisis to shed ineffective labor.) Even after 'the great reopening' many companies will have to go to significant lengths to protect their labor forces - they won't do well with many staff off sick (or worse) - with a consequent impact on production efficiency.
There are few opportunities to observe the impact of less limited restrictions and social distancing regulations. Sweden is the best example but even Swede's have faced restrictions - just less than their neighbors. Analysis until early April shows very limited benefit of being 'open' with 3x the death rate. Data indicators for the month of April show a similar pattern. We shall see.
We are only two or three months into this. Many things aren't going to be normal for some time. C'est la vie.
