Questions about "the new normal"

[SGK]

You can have all manner of conspiracy theories....

The good news is that supply hasn't been permanently destroyed. The factories that supplied two years ago are still there. Demand will normalize (or mean revert if you prefer) also. In so many sectors in the last two years there was a demand spike at the same time as there were supply constraints. Both are already fixing themselves. But if many are prepared to pay current hiked prices you can be assured there are those willing to supply. For now I'm not in any rush to refill the cupboard and I will wait for as long as possible before I even consider paying extortionate prices. We are already seeing prices of primers coming down from those that some were prepared to pay once supply started to trickle back. Let them sit on the shelves for a bit and see how prices perform then.

 

[drop_point]

Amen to that, SGK. Definitely demand driven, but the part that spins my head is the difference in price we see. Personally, I did just buy some BR-2s and BR-4s for $60/1000 locally. When I went to put them away, I discovered 5,000 BR-2s I didn't know I had. $152 delivered in 2018. It dawned on me, I have a rifle with a barrel that is nearing the end of its life and I bought those primers and 16 lbs of H4350 for my "next" barrel I never bought.

 

[Full Chisel]

the part that spins my head is the difference in price we see.

I read an article a long time ago where some notable economist went into a lot of depth about psychology, supply and demand, stock markets, war, and stuff like gas, food, etc. This was way back in the 2000's after the tech crash, after 9/11, and maybe after Katrina. Anyway, interesting read. One of the main points was that the more news we injest, the more volatile/unpredictable the supply-demand curve gets. Point is that if you can control the media AND the product, then you can systematically make big money off of consumers. If they know we want it bad enough - as opposed to just needing to refresh necessary supply - then they have an incentive to actually withhold supply. Selling 1/2 as much at 2.5x the price makes them a lot of money. I guess if we were all deaf, dumb and blind without TVs and internet telling us to stock up for the coming apocalypse, then prices might be a tad more normal. The small guys just caught up in it just trying to stay afloat.

My buddy went into the Ford dealer the other day to buy a new Expedition at the "internet price" of $82,000 plus tax (7%). The salesman wrote it up and final number was $96,000. There was a $5,000 "inflation" charge and a $5,000 "salesman commission bonus" among other fees. He asked them how they were getting away with that. The salesman told him flat out "because they can" and that "someone else would come in and buy it if he didn't". When he walked the salesman told him they could drop one of the $5,000 charges. He walked anyway.

My Ditch Witch salesman tried to pull that on me over a mini track loader. Price started at $37,500 OTD last June, then after two 7% price hikes (which comes to $42,750 - and still waiting on machine), and pressure to move to a more expensive machine that would be here faster, I finally I went to my Kubota dealer. They had the equivalent machine and attachments for $38,000 OTD and will be here in 2-3 months. When my Ditch Witch guy heard the numbers, he back-tracked and said "yeah we can get you OTD for around $38,500". I laughed and told him we'll see.

 

[Rat Rifle]

For Me, COST is the lesser Issue. If I could get H4895 now, I would pay the asking price and buy it. I have about 3 more matches of components left, then I’m done. The primary issue for Me is inability to get reloading components.

What if this time the shortages are permanent??? I would like to here from those who think this this isn’t, or couldn’t happen.

 

[drop_point]

I won't say shortages couldn't be permanent, but there is just as much being made. So the question is how long will demand be this high? Eventually, people run out of money.

 

[1K6BRA]

I remember my father telling me the story about his mother which would be my grandmother that was born in 1894 so she would’ve gone through the great depression trying to raise three boys on one salary saying “I guess it would be nice but I guess it is not for me“ I guess if I was a buyer in this market I would be saying that to myself. Fortunately I sensed what was coming quite a few years ago and slowly build up my inventory of both competition components and hunting components. If you are able to afford these kind of prices without shorting your family grocery budget or other responsibilities I guess go for it. But many of us are not in that position. Will prices come back down I am guessing they will to some extent but never like what we saw just three years ago.It has been said here before supply and demand, general inflation, fear etc. Like the saying goes money is the root of all evil.I fear for our younger generation whose parents are not well to do enough to be able to get them started in the shooting, hunting sports. I am thinking that my first grandchild that was just born this past September may be saying sometime in the future when I am long gone can you believe my grandfather he actually had guns and bullets and that kind of stuff. Believe me I hope I’m wrong!

 

[Hoot]

A brief correction of an oft misquoted phrase. "The Love of Money is the Root of all Evil."

Hoot

 

[TTE]

Say what you will ........ I'm not a rich guy, however, for me, high price today is a bargain tomorrow.

With what DC has coming down the pipe .... it may all just disappear..

I have seen posts here of guys looking for a specific type of powder.
My advise, start looking for something that will work in all your bang sticks and buy some.

Just my $0.87 ...... used to be $0.02 before inflation

 

[Bronsin]

Im not saying there isnt price gouging and greed. Call and ask them. I hope you get an honest answer. Each person has the choice to deal with these gougers or not. Our LGS's are as empty as the big box places around here and charging higher prices. Ive told 2 of them they will never see me again for that reason

That's what I'm seeing as well. My LGS has some 168gr Sierra's for 67/100. Big chain had them for 47/100. Same deal with N133. It was $10 more per pound than other VV powders, for no other reason than its popularity. Even when a decent shipment comes in of a popular powder, they raise the price on it, but everything else as well. They gouge like there's no tomorrow.

 

[Fuj]

They gouge like there's no tomorrow.

You also have to realize that the large box stores can buy in bulk
pricing and pass on the savings, where the mom and pop shop
don't have that luxury. Big problem currently is there is no bulk ??
So now even the big stores are paying extra. You could say the big
stores are being gouged, and have to pass it on to keep the share
holders happy.