My Prediction on the Availability of Supplies

[lancexxx]

If not needed, why did you buy them. In my mind, that's hoarding of the worst kind.

Thats why they are on here for the members

 

[Nick Caprinolo]

OK. That is a whole other ballgame.

 

[JimT]

Well, i've seen 2 reports that are not shiny at all.

First is from a smaller ammo manufacturer.
Militaries did not purchase ammo last summer. Shooting in places didn't stop.
Militaries are now replentishing their supplies.
And are given first priority by ammo manufacturers.

Second is the maritime fleet.
Ships have gotten bigger, carrying more containers, bulk goods (wheat, coal, ore), and fuels. The ports haven't kept up with the increasing size of the ships & volume they carry.
Plus some ships crews have been onboard ship approaching 11-16 months. Replacement crews, and even medical workers are not allowed onboard the ships. And some countries are not allowing ships to dock from certain countries.
Only 2.5% of maritime fleet vaccinated.

It might get better regarding your first point, of course in the long run that might not turn out so well.

Machinists Union Fighting for Local 778 Members at Missouri Olin Winchester Ammunition Plant - IAMAW

IAM International President Robert Martinez Jr. recently sent a letter to U.S. House and Senate appropriators, urging them to reject a Biden administration budget proposal that would cut funding for U.S. Army ammunitions and threaten the jobs of IAM Local 778 members at the Olin-Winchester Lake...

www.goiam.org

 

[lancexxx]

My only problem is I can't ship.

 

[Adam in WI]

@Nick Caprinolo ,I bought them to feed my new Super Grade. Those should last me a good long time, and I didn't even buy all they had. Benefits of shooting a less-popular chambering...

 

[std7mag]

My only problem is I can't ship.

Yup, shipping optics out of the country is a no no...

Someone might use their Sightron as a periscope on a nuclear submarine.

 

[Texas10]

Every day, I see more and more supplies, on the market, some of which are selling for slightly above normal costs. Lately I have bought N133 powder for $10.00 above last years price. Expensive, but not near what it sold for a few months ago.

I shoot Wolf 22LR target match in one of my rimfire rifle rifles. It is now available for $95.00 a brick. Again a bit higher but not that bad. There are now hundreds of sights selling 22LR. Many are still high, but many are with reach of the average shooter.

Brass is now plentiful and primers, while still at least three times normal, at least they can be bought. Bullets are there but not many choices as to weight.

I believe the hoarders have stopped buying as much as they were. They have now stockpiled all they can afford or want. There are many sellers who have refused to gouge the public and while they don't always have product in stock they are forcing the market to go down in price. those who sell at absorbent prices are now sitting on stock they can't seem to sell. Look at Ammo Seek. There are now five full pages of 22LR. Hodgdon is now selling directly to the consumer. Grief and Sons are selling at prices that are tolerable when the have stock. Even Midway USA is limiting powder to 2 pounds at a time. And then there is Blue Collar Reloading. What ever they have in stock is the same price as it was last year.

Most folks are now refusing to fork out outlandish money, which is driving up availability and lowering prices. Furthermore, we the buying public are beginning to realize we don't need more of what we already have on hand.

Three months from now, prices should be much better.

This is my prediction and I may be wrong. There are over 50,000 members here. Supposed we all just sat on our hands for a while.

I believe you are 100% correct, Nick. I see the same thing, availability is improving, prices are falling, and a return to a semblance of normal is just around the corner. What's driving the change? Could be just that the Great Gun Panic has run its course, as they always do. Or that the level of inflammatory rhetoric driving the panic has begun to drop off as the lawsuits are beginning to wind their way through the courts. Whatever the reasons, I'll welcome it with an open wallet.

 

[JimT]

I have watched with interest the statement made regarding the "shortages" of ammo and components this past 8-10 months. Two things make me skeptical of the usual pat answer that it is hoarders and profiteers who are responsible for the bare shelves. One, I live in a fairly small town named Lewiston in Idaho. It is a "shooting community" with few equals It is small enough that I drive by all the usual outlets for ammo and components, every day. I have not seen the lines each morning outside these outlets like I did during the Obama panic buying, and I haven't seen the usual profiteers hanging out at the facilities the morning after the usual weekly shipments arrive. Two, I live two blocks away from two CCI/Speer/Federal (Vista Outdoors) facilities that manufacture ammo and components, including primers. I have lived here for 7 years. This past 8-10 months, I have observed a lack of activity at both factories. Very few trucks being loaded. Only one forklift moving around the docks, if at all. Few if any cars parked in the employee parking lots. Facilities closed on the weekends. Facilities closed in the evenings. All of that, in spite of the protestations by the corporate CEO that Vista Outdoors is working overtime to produce! (My governor turned down an extension of the federal unemployment benefits so that is not responsible for a lack of willing workers). As an added puzzlement, I drive up to Dale's, about 40 miles upriver from here, near Kamiah, to check his shelves from time to time. The reason I do so is Dale's is far enough out in the middle of nowhere that he is not so vulnerable to hoarders and profiteers coming in to clean his shelves on a regular basis. Nevertheless, the shelves have been bare. It is a small shop and the owner is known to be scrupulously honest. When questioned, he said simply, he has had everything on backorder for months and nothing is coming in. (I have also been on the road quite a bit between here and the mid-west. I have observed no shortage of truck traffic on Interstates 70, 80 and 90, nor any shortage of them on Idaho State highways either, so I don't believe it is a lack of transport that is responsible.) So, my thought is, if it is hoarders and profiteers responsible, where are they buying it if the usual retail outlets are not even receiving it? I am not prone to conspiracy theories. Still, we have noticed other industries that appear to curtail production to manipulate supply as a means of forcing retail prices up. For instance the oil and gas industry. I can't help but wonder if the ammo and component industry is not guilty of creating contrived shortages to take massive profits, and I wonder if we would be having this problem at all if our asleep-at -the -switch government at State and federal levels sought to enforce the Sherman Anti-Trust Act against those who seek to fix prices. Just my thoughts on the current state of the industry.

Vista Outdoor Announces Record FY22 First Quarter Financial Results

Vista Outdoor Inc. (NYSE: VSTO), a leading global designer, manufacturer and marketer of products in the outdoor sports and recreation markets, today reported financial results for the first quarter of its Fiscal Year 2022 (FY22), which ended on June 27, 2021.

finance.yahoo.com

FYI, Vista CEO disclosed they have a MULTI Billion dollar backlog as of today. The entire conference call is available on their website. You should listen to it.