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COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

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By mid-July fewer than 20% of Swedes showed serological evidence of past SARS-CoV-2 infection. Sweden is nowhere near herd immunity for a virus with an R0 of 2.5 or more.
You could be right. But some experts are thinking outside the box on this virus.

From BBC on 1 July (excerpts):

People testing negative for coronavirus antibodies may still have some immunity, a study has suggested. For every person testing positive for antibodies, two were found to have specific T-cells which identify and destroy infected cells. This was seen even in people who had mild or symptomless cases of Covid-19. But it's not yet clear whether this just protects that individual, or if it might also stop them from passing on the infection to others.

Researchers at the Karolinksa Institute in Sweden tested 200 people for both antibodies and T-cells. Some were blood donors while others were tracked down from the group of people first infected in Sweden, mainly returning from earlier affected areas like northern Italy. This could mean a wider group have some level of immunity to Covid-19 than antibody testing figures, like those published as part of the UK Office for National Statistics Infection Survey, suggest. It's likely those people did mount an antibody response, but either it had faded or was not detectable by the current tests. And these people should be protected if they are exposed to the virus for a second time.

Prof Danny Altmann at Imperial College London described the study as "robust, impressive and thorough" and said it added to a growing body of evidence that "antibody testing alone underestimates immunity".
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More analysis needs to be done to understand whether these T-cells provide "sterilising immunity", meaning they completely block the virus, or whether they might protect an individual from getting sick but not stop them from carrying the virus and transmitting it.

Much of the discussion around Covid-19 immunity has focused on antibodies - Y-shaped proteins which act like "missiles shooting down a target", assistant Prof Buggert explained. They bind to the virus before it can enter your cells, and neutralise it. If antibodies fail to neutralise the virus, it can enter your cells and turn them into virus-making factories.

T-cells, on the other hand, target already-infected cells and completely destroy them, stopping them from spreading to other, healthy cells.
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Like antibodies, T-cells are part of the bit of your immune system that has a memory. Once it recognises a particular virus, it can quickly target cells infected with it and kill them.
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T-cells are very complex and much harder to identify than antibodies, requiring specialist labs and small batches of samples being tested by hand over the course of days.

This means mass testing for T-cells is not a very likely prospect at the moment.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53248660

Here's excerpts from an article in Science Magazine by Derek Lowe (15 July):

Here’s a post from May on a paper in Cell that looked at T cell responses in recovering SARS CoV-2 patients and compared them to reports of people who had been infected with “original SARS” back in 2003, and to people who had never encountered either. It also has some background on T cells in general, which might be useful if you don’t have that info right at the top of your brain’s queue. That’s the paper that showed that the T-cell response to this virus is less “Spike-o-centric” than it was to SARS. It also showed that there are, in fact, people who have both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells that recognize protein antigens from the new coronavirus even though they have never been exposed to SARS, MERS, or the new virus. The paper speculated that this might be due to cross-reactivity with proteins from the “common cold” coronaviruses”, and raised the possibility that there might be a part of the population that has at least some existing protection against the current pandemic.

Now comes a new paper in press at Nature. It confirms that convalescent patients from the current epidemic show T-cell responses (mostly CD4+ but some CD8+ as well) to various epitopes of the N (nucleocapsid) protein, which the earlier paper had identified as one of the main antigens as well (along with the Spike and M proteins, among others, with differences between the CD4+ and CD8+ responses as well). Turning to patients who had caught SARS back in 2003 and recovered, it is already known (and worried about) that their antibody responses faded within two or three years. But this paper shows that these patients still have (17 years later!) a robust T-cell response to the original SARS coronavirus’s N protein, which extends an earlier report of such responses going out to 11 years. This new work finds that these cross-react with the new SARS CoV-2 N protein as well. This makes one think, as many have been wondering, that T-cell driven immunity is perhaps the way to reconcile the apparent paradox between (1) antibody responses that seem to be dropping week by week in convalescent patients but (2) few (if any) reliable reports of actual re-infection. That would be good news indeed.

And turning to patients who have never been exposed to either SARS or the latest SARS CoV-2, this new work confirms that there are people who nonetheless have T cells that are reactive to protein antigens from the new virus. As in the earlier paper, these cells have a different pattern of reactivity compared to people who have recovered from the current pandemic (which also serves to confirm that they truly have not been infected this time around). Recognition of the nsp7 and nsp13 proteins is prominent, as well as the N protein. And when they looked at that nsp7 response, it turns out that the T cells are recognizing particular protein regions that have low homology to those found in the “common cold” coronaviruses – but do have very high homology to various animal coronaviruses.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/15/new-data-on-t-cells-and-the-coronavirus

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Even without a significant lockdown Sweden's 2Q GDP contracted 8.6% QoQ. While less than some European countries it just goes to show how damaging a heath shock can be as people naturally adjust behavior and consumption patterns. (The comparable figure for the US was a 9.5% contraction.) The next question is how quickly various economies will bounce back. In countries where the virus threat continues unabated the rebound will be slower than in those where the threat is better suppressed.
 
..In countries where the virus threat continues unabated the rebound will be slower than in those where the threat is better suppressed.

That’s us, a thousand deaths a day. Millions unemployed for months to come, many hundreds of small businesses closing forever, this isn’t going well
 
So how do we navigate the fine line between virus induced deaths and suppressing activity that if too extreme will lead to an economic collapse after which chaos and anarchy will rein? We can’t “print” money indefinitely!
 
The numbers in Texas are improving. Charts below from Texas Health and Human Services site.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

The number of new daily cases is still ~8000, but fatalities seem to have topped out and are dropping. Granted, the fatality reporting changed on 7/21 such that there is up to a 10 day lag for fatalities to be reported, and when reported they are assigned to the date of passing, not date of reporting, but even so fatalities are trending down.

08-05-2020 - Texas cases and fatalities.png


For the Houston area the hospitalization situation is improving, from a peak of 1093 COVID ICU beds about 2 weeks ago to currently 811 beds. Even more pronounced drop in general / isolation beds, going from ~2,200 to ~1,500 in the last two weeks. Charts below from the SETRAC site:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJr...wZTgtNGQzMS04YjZmLTdlMGUzYmUxMGUwOCIsImMiOjN9

Green line is number of COVID patients in ICU beds
08-05-2020 - Houston area ICU bed usage.png

Top half - COVID patients in ICU beds. Bottom half - COVID patients in general / isolation beds
08-05-2020 - Houston area ICU and gen-iso bed usage.png
 
The number of serious infections in Texas as a whole, and Houston particularly have fortunately started to decline or at least plateau. Travis County (Austin) is seeing a reduction in new serious cases, too. These seem to be the results of Memorial Day weekend where many people did not practice any kind of mitigation efforts like masks and distancing. Take note of the time frame between infection, spread, and deaths. That's 60 days before the number of deaths and ICU cases start declining.

Unfortunately this decline may be short lived, as the July 4th weekend infections will now be starting to show up in hospitalizations. Governor Abbott did not order face coverings until Friday July 3rd, after most people planning a July 4th vacation had probably already left town. News coverage of beaches and bars showed widespread non compliance with the executive order, and widespread infections are sure to follow.

It's now 4 weeks after July 4th and about the time severe cases begin to flood hospitals. The case reporting process has become fully politicized now, and delays and omissions in reporting are being reported, further confusing the local scope of the pandemic.

I wish there were better news, but this virus will be with us for many years or even decades to come and will change forever our behavior in social gatherings. Even when a vaccine becomes available on a wide scale, not everyone vaccinated will be immune, and a quickly and constantly mutating virus will likely manage to stay just ahead of our efforts. Only by drastically reducing the number of hosts the virus depends upon to mutate will we possibly get ahead of this deadly bug.

Please do your part to stop the spread.
 
Check out the new CopperFit mask TV ads. Not one word about the virus or its effectivness against it. It's all about style and comfort, and satisfying mandates. Appears to be a single thin layer of stretchy material, not intended to block droplets or anything else.

It points up the futility of madating masks with no standards for effectiveness or proper handling. Recall Fauci and Redfield saying early on that wearing an inappropriate mask, haphazardly, was worse than no mask at all? I believe that was their true opinion, not what has become mere virtue signaling. Social distancing is they key, not slapping gauze over your face.
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When people refuse to (or can't) social distance your next best option is to demand they wear a mask. If they refuse to do so or flaunt stupidity with an obviously ineffective mask you're stuck dealing with dicks and ar$eholes. Simple. Unfortunately, without a vaccine you're left with very blunt policy instruments. That we knew 6 months ago.
 
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I’ll continue to wear a mask after the Covid is gone, I’ve got the perfect face for a mask.
Wearing a mask is so good and effective, I owe my elder brother some money and he didn't see me passed his house the other day because i was wearing a mask.
 
Check out the new CopperFit mask TV ads. Not one word about the virus or its effectivness against it. It's all about style and comfort, and satisfying mandates. Appears to be a single thin layer of stretchy material, not intended to block droplets or anything else.

It points up the futility of madating masks with no standards for effectiveness or proper handling. Recall Fauci and Redfield saying early on that wearing an inappropriate mask, haphazardly, was worse than no mask at all? I believe that was their true opinion, not what has become mere virtue signaling. Social distancing is they key, not slapping gauze over your face.
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I saw these advertised watching the hockey playoffs.

They might not have any filters but that material is "Copper Infused"! If only they would also sell a homeopathic solution to wash it in and it would be super-effective! :confused::D

Ignoring the fact they probably have close to zero value as a prevention mechanism for the spread of COVID-19, they do look pretty comfortable.
 
Time to prepare. Time to learn. Time for vulnerable to hide.
Or, a larger percentage of discovered cases are asymptomatic or mild infections. We suspect there are 10x more infections than known cases. The more random testing, the more cases, but not necessarily more deaths.

PS: And better treatments. Scientific American reports that Dexamethsone reduced deaths by 33% among patients on ventilators, and by 20% among those receiving oxygen therapy. Remdesivir continues to generate positive reports, and NIH yesterday announced a randomized, controlled clinical trial evaluating the safety and efficacy of a treatment regimen consisting Remdesivir plus the immunomodulator Interferon Beta-1a.
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I don’t think testing was random. You had to be very motivated to go stand in a queue to get tested in Miami-Dade.

Hospitalisations have been very high but thankfully they levelled off before the system broke. Calculate deaths as percentage of hospitalised as a measure of how better they did.

better treatment is part of time to learn

The fact that it hasn’t decimated Sumter county is likely evidence of the benefit giving the vulnerable time to realise the severity of the risk and for others to prepare for their care. (My ex parents in law haven’t left their Orchid Island country club for almost 6 months. They do drive-by collection of meals and groceries from the country club. They’re lucky.)

Masks have likely had a huge impact on turning the trend on infection rates. In Miami-Dade you now have to wear one at all times in public, even if just walking down the street and civil on-the-spot fines apply if you don’t.

This thing is still ugly though. I caught up with a friend here via messaging yesterday. He’s a very fit guy in his early 40s. Him, his wife and their two children including a five month old daughter have been down with COVID. He was/is flattened with pneumonia and chest pains etc. He says he’s slowly coming right but that it’s been awful. A girl who used to look after my kids, a twenty something year old, got it together with her boyfriend. She’s ok now but says it was the worst she’s ever been sick. On the other hand, one guy in our office has been out with it for the last four weeks (together with his wife and two young kids). He says his symptoms were relatively mild with just fever and aches and pains. He’s lucky his elderly mother who lives with them didn’t get it. So you never know how this thing is going to affect you. A friend in the UK who had it in March is still suffering from severe fatigue.

Here’s hoping that the trend in deaths has indeed turned downwards.
 
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I said "the more random testing" but that was poor wording. More widespread and on-demand testing, not just those with symptoms or doctor initiated, which was what ruled in the early days.
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