COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

Good to see the 7DMA of new cases in Florida rolling over. And positivity rates, while still very elevated, have fallen also. The median age of new confirmed cases continues to rise however (42 for yesterday).

 

[Straightshooter1]

Recent (published today in JAMA Internal Medicine) serology surveys indicate that the actual number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the U.S. is 6-24 times larger than the reported number, as you suggest.

Watching and listening to all that's been going on since February, this what I've come to see as my POV/hypothesis:

"The estimated number of infections, however, was much greater than the number of reported cases in all sites. This finding may reflect persons who had mild or no illness or who did not seek medical care or undergo testing but who still may have contributed to ongoing virus transmission in the population."

 

[Straightshooter1]

Who the hell could know when a kid gets killed on a motorcycle and they list cause of death Covid or like a close friend of mine who's mother fell and broke her shoulder and then while in the hospital had a bad stroke and died and when my friend got the death certificate they listed cause of death covid, and when they were questioned why she was listed Covid the doctor told him the facility receives 17.000.00 per covid death.

Not everyone is fraudulent.

 

[SGK]

There will always be errors - and those who exploit the situation. The question is whether there are errors of sufficient magnitude so as to completely corrupt the overall picture.

 

[rwj]

There will always be errors - and those who exploit the situation. The question is whether there are errors of sufficient magnitude so as to completely corrupt the overall picture.

True... what’s sad is that those factors make it hard to know the truth and/or who to trust...

 

[SGK]

Well the malintentioned reporting of the errors in some small FL testing facility results was easily checked for significance.

 

[Dgd6mm]

Not everyone is fraudulent.

Your right, not everyone is fraudulent. But every state has fraud. They like those $. I know this !

 

[Dgd6mm]

There will always be errors - and those who exploit the situation. The question is whether there are errors of sufficient magnitude so as to completely corrupt the overall picture.

Yeah, accidentally on purpose.

 

[Brians356]

Recent (published today in JAMA Internal Medicine) serology surveys indicate that the actual number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the U.S. is 6-24 times larger than the reported number, as you suggest.

So what does, say, a 10x larger denominator do to Covid-19 infection fatality rate? Let's see, where's my slide rule when I don't need it ...
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[Brians356]

Your tight, ...

I wish I was tight just now. Oh, well, easy enough to remedy ...
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[Toby Bradshaw]

So what does, say, a 10x larger denominator do to Covid-19 infection fatality rate? Let's see, where's my slide rule when I don't need it ...
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I expect that when the dust settles the IFR in the U.S. will turn out to be 0.4%-0.8%. That may not sound very high (although it's much higher than the seasonal flu), but if it takes 60%-70% of the population to reach herd immunity before an effective vaccine is widely available, and the population of the U.S. is ca. 330 million, the arithmetic for potential casualties is sobering.

FWIW, I placed my COVID-19 mortality bet* (200,000 Americans dead by Christmas 2020) back in March (when there were just 300 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S.), assuming a ~0.5% IFR and 10%-15% of the U.S. population infected, while giving myself a little cushion.

*Edit: Link to bet.

 

[SGK]

I find it darkly amusing that, almost consistently, those here in denial of the seriousness of the issue live in areas that in their entirety would likely represent statistically insignificant error in any statewide statistic let alone a national one.

 

[Mark W]

I find it darkly amusing that, almost consistently, those here in denial of the seriousness of the issue live in areas that in their entirety would likely represent statistically insignificant error in any statewide statistic let alone a national one.

I doubt it’s statistically significant enough for you, but I know people that work in the medical field in Pittsburgh, Orlando, and Houston. All of them are even more skeptical of the reported number of cases and the number deaths attributed to this virus than I am.

I don’t want to catch it and I don’t want any of my loved ones to catch it, but that doesn’t change the fact that we are being fed a line of BS.

 

[GeoffR]

Australia has a population about 7.5% that of the USA. We have nine states or territories. The two most populated states - Victoria and New South Wales - between them are currently running at about 500 (give or take a few) new cases each day while the remaining seven less than 10.

And arguably panic is setting in! (Possibly for good reasons). It has to be said that the majority of these cases are in the cities of Melbourne and Sydney (each with populations of 3M+ people) with a few outside but close to the metro areas. Few as far as I can tell in the rural areas.

Where I live (in Canberra - pop 350k) there are perhaps five current active cases but since this all started less than 120 known cases of CV-19 and maybe five deaths.

I think we're pretty lucky here but I'm still keeping my head down and well away from clubs, pubs, footy games, what have you. I don't particularly want to catch this bug. From what I hear even if one survives one might wish they hadn't! Regardless of age...

With what has happened recently in Melbourne - and likely Sydney next week - I don't think anyone should doubt that this thing can get out of control very quickly for whatever reason. I think that that has also been demonstrated in the US.

 

[GeoffR]

Further to what I wrote above...

Apparently 600 people in Canberra have had to go into "self-isolation" for 14 days. They or someone they are physically close to (like live with) went to a club at a beach town about 60 miles from here (in NSW) last weekend. That club (basically a restaurant with bars and pokie machines) had someone there who has tested positive from a "hot-spot" pub in Sydney - that in turn became a "hot-spot" because someone was there who came from a "hot-spot" in Melbourne last week.

Who knows how many of these 600 will ultimately test positive?

The city of Melbourne is currently in a state of lockdown and no-one from the state of Victoria can enter New South Wales (NSW) or Queensland. Probably not anywhere else either. Canberra (the Australian Capital Territory - or ACT) is an island in the middle of NSW and it will be very difficult to close its borders. So our destiny here is very much tied to that of NSW.

Quite a few people here are not taking this very seriously. There is a lot of complacency out there.

Great stuff!

 

[Willow]

The world is full of idiots unfortunately.

 

[Nude nut]

Further to what I wrote above...

Apparently 600 people in Canberra have had to go into "self-isolation" for 14 days. They or someone they are physically close to (like live with) went to a club at a beach town about 60 miles from here (in NSW) last weekend. That club (basically a restaurant with bars and pokie machines) had someone there who has tested positive from a "hot-spot" pub in Sydney - that in turn became a "hot-spot" because someone was there who came from a "hot-spot" in Melbourne last week.

Who knows how many of these 600 will ultimately test positive?

The city of Melbourne is currently in a state of lockdown and no-one from the state of Victoria can enter New South Wales (NSW) or Queensland. Probably not anywhere else either. Canberra (the Australian Capital Territory - or ACT) is an island in the middle of NSW and it will be very difficult to close its borders. So our destiny here is very much tied to that of NSW.

Quite a few people here are not taking this very seriously. There is a lot of complacency out there.

Great stuff!

Im waiting for it to hit south australia next those victorians keep trying to sneek in.
My wife works as a nurse in the flinders ranges area and last week a couple snuck over the border somehow and came to the hostpital my wife works at to get tested for covid .
What were they thinking I dont know but thats a long drive to go to the doctors a good 10hrs they ended up gettin stung by police trying to go back over the border.

cheers Trev.

 

[GeoffR]

Im waiting for it to hit south australia next those victorians keep trying to sneek in.
My wife works as a nurse in the flinders ranges area and last week a couple snuck over the border somehow and came to the hostpital my wife works at to get tested for covid .
What were they thinking I dont know but thats a long drive to go to the doctors a good 10hrs they ended up gettin stung by police trying to go back over the border.

cheers Trev.

That sort of reminds me of something said in the movie "The Right Stuff" in the context of rocket engineers/scientists. "Our [german] rocket scientists are better than THEIR "german" scientists"!

It seems like South Australian Covid tests might be better than Victorian tests???

They are still trying to get into NSW (why beats me). Someone we know here had their ACT number plates stolen last week. The cops have told them that they were photographed in Victoria and again in NSW this week. Apparently ACT registered cars/trucks are not subjected to the same scrutiny on crossing the VIC/NSW border as VIC (or NSW) plates. There's always a new trick.

 

[Dgd6mm]

I wish I was tight just now. Oh, well, easy enough to remedy ...
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[Brians356]

I would say the Main Stream Media has done an excellent job of misleading and corrupting this

Led by "experts" like Fauci, shown here (after his opening pitch missed home plate by 20 feet) explaining to two associates that, if social distancing is impossible, wearing a mask is doubly important.
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