COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

No, they need the capacity to deal with the crisis. Couple that with the fact that few people are keen to go to a hospital for any reason at the moment let alone for something elective. (You don't need a government ban to not want to go to a hospital, a movie theater or on a cruise at the moment.) The hospitals haven't got the financial buffers needed to deal with the impact to their business.

Stocks are off today. I've been averaging in as I was very liquid in January since we were heading for a recession even without COVID. However I must admit I've become bearish/much less bullish over the last couple of weeks. I don't think the US is remotely prepared for a 'reopening' and this coupled with irresponsible elements of the public will mean much more damage to the economy than necessary. (That's not to say I'm a fan of the likes of Bernie and AOC - far from it. The far left and the far right are as bad as each other. Come to center.) A second wave is generally expected - and likely will be more damaging than the first - but in the case of the US I think the first wave could well just continue to gather momentum.

 

[ronsatspokane]

No, they need the capacity to deal with the crisis. Couple that with the fact that few people are keen to go to a hospital for any reason at the moment let alone for something elective. (You don't need a government ban to not want to go to a hospital, a movie theater or on a cruise at the moment.) The hospitals haven't got the financial buffers needed to deal with the impact to their business.

Stocks are off today. I've been averaging in as I was very liquid in January since we were heading for a recession even without COVID. However I must admit I've become bearish/much less bullish over the last couple of weeks. I don't think the US is remotely prepared for a 'reopening' and this coupled with irresponsible elements of the public will mean much more damage to the economy than necessary. (That's not to say I'm a fan of the likes of Bernie and AOC - far from it. The far left and the far right are as bad as each other. Come to center.) A second wave is generally expected - and likely will be more damaging than the first - but in the case of the US I think the first wave could well just continue to gather momentum.

I'm far more bullish than you are. The news about a pending recession prior to corona was nonsense IMO. Those who postulated that are probably all in cash at this point and missing out. Back on during 911 the bottom dropped out of airline stocks. I was buying and people were telling me I was stupid. Same thing seems to be happening here. Longer term I see a global repositioning of the supply chain. We already had a lot of jobs coming back to the states, that trend will increase now that people understand the vulnerability. More jobs equals more spending and an expanding economy. The only intermediate impact I'm seeing is in the service industry, hotels, food services, bars and such. That may leak into commercial real estate. I'm also not convinced that the second wave will come or be that impactful if it does. Time will reveal all however.

 

[Brians356]

I'm also not convinced that the second wave will come or be that impactful if it does. Time will reveal all however.

Ever-expanding and widespread antibody testing suggests that exposure to this virus is vastly wider than assumed heretofore, with many times more asymptomatic infections than symptomatic ones. When the dust settles in the next month or so, we will discover that herd immunity is imminent this summer, in spite of (not thanks to!) the "lockdown". So a "second wave" (if any) in the fall will likely be severely attenuated and manageable. Also, a study from S. Korea published yesterday strongly suggests that once you ward off this virus, reinfection is highly unlikely.
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[SGK]

Morgan Stanley equity research strategy have called the last 3 years perfectly including selling in 4Q 2019 and buying in late March 2020. But here’s not the place to discuss stock market investment strategies. Let’s just see what happens.

 

[SGK]

@brians356 you might be right but unlikely that you in my opinion. Here’s hoping I’m wrong. Best we actually make some progress on antibody testing.

 

[INTJ]

Ever-expanding and widespread antibody testing suggests that exposure to this virus is vastly wider than assumed heretofore, with many times more asymptomatic infections than symptomatic ones. When the dust settles in the next month or so, we will discover that herd immunity is imminent this summer, in spite of (not thanks to!) the "lockdown". So a "second wave" (if any) in the fall will likely be severely attenuated and manageable. Also, a study from S. Korea published yesterday strongly suggests that once you ward off this virus, reinfection is highly unlikely.
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I think Brian is right. As more data comes we will see this virus is much more similar to other respiratory viruses. I can't remember his name but I saw a French doc describe how once this goes through the population it's done, much like SARS.

I do NOT expect ANY leader or "expert" or the media to ever admit that we overreacted and kept our economy shut down for too long, regardless of whatever data comes in over the next few months.

 

[Brians356]

I can't remember his name but I saw a French doc describe how once this goes through the population it's done, much like SARS.

Well, after all, it is a genetic strain of SARS. Soooo ...

I do NOT expect ANY leader ... to ever admit that we overreacted and kept our economy shut down for too long

Are you familiar with Nancy, Chuck, or Adam?
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[Toby Bradshaw]

As more data comes we will see this virus is much more similar to other respiratory viruses.

Which other "respiratory virus" killed >58,000 Americans in a month?

 

[Brians356]

Which other "respiratory virus" killed >58,000 Americans in a month?

The "Spanish Flu" virus, for one. In the US alone it killed 195,000 over the month of October 1918.
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[Brians356]

In Minnesota, 249 of the 319 total Covid-19 deaths to date were residents of long-term care facilities. MDH Infectious Disease Director Kris Ehresmann states that 99.24% of the total decedents either died in nursing homes or otherwise had significant underlying health conditions.
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[Toby Bradshaw]

The "Spanish Flu" virus, for one. In the US alone it killed 195,000 over the month of October 1918.
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Exactly. SARS-CoV-2 is producing a once-in-a-century pandemic; i.e., not "similar to other respiratory viruses."

 

[Brians356]

a once-in-a-century pandemic

Promise?
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[SGK]

Exactly. SARS-CoV-2 is producing a once-in-a-century pandemic; i.e., not "similar to other respiratory viruses."

Watch out, the tin foil crew will be arguing China is manufacturing and releasing these once per decade...

 

[Highpower-FClass]

...once-in-a-century pandemic; i.e., not "similar to other respiratory viruses."

Promise?
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At this point it would seem it is not a promise as much as it is an empirically verifiable fact.

If it turns out that there is another pandemic as bad as Spanish Flu and COVID-19 before the 2120 timeframe, that disease would break the 'once-in-a-century pandemic' metric. Let's hope there is not.

 

[SGK]

Interesting report (published April 20) on what's required to get people confident about working/playing again in a safe environment:

https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/ce...maptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20_0.pdf

Inter alia, they suggest the required level of testing to not have to revert again to mass social distancing as 2% to 6% of the population a day. That's 5 million to 20 million tests a day.

Current testing in the US:

https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

How many of you have been tested or know of someone who has been tested for the presence of the virus? For every case that yielded a negative result, how many were tested again at a later date? Apply the same questions to antibody tests.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

At this point it would seem it is not a promise as much as it is an empirically verifiable fact.

Especially if you fairly compare how influenza and COVID-19 deaths are counted by the CDC.

When was the last time that seasonal flu victims had to be stored in rented refrigerated trucks in hospital parking lots, and funeral homes were packing the corpses into U-Hauls?

 

[ronsatspokane]

Interesting report (published April 20) on what's required to get people confident about working/playing again in a safe environment:

https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/ce...maptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20_0.pdf

Inter alia, they suggest the required level of testing to not have to revert again to mass social distancing as 2% to 6% of the population a day. That's 5 million to 20 million tests a day.

Current testing in the US:

https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

How many of you have been tested or know of someone who has been tested for the presence of the virus? For every case that yielded a negative result, how many were tested again at a later date? Apply the same questions to antibody tests.

So when all this started the object was to flatten the curve and prevent overwhelming of the medical system. That has be accomplished. That's right, "Mission Accomplished". Even in the heaviest hit regions of the world like Italy which is opening back up.

Now the goal post moves in many nations. I don't think some understand the word scalability. We will likely never have the scalability in testing required to implement that plan. If we wait for the capability to evolve, civilization will devolve. Meanwhile political animals do not have the courage to make the call, epidemiologist (and professors of ethics of all things according to that paper) continue to receive their paychecks and maintain the roof over their heads while reviewing their analytics and the population starves in their homes if they can keep the homes they have. The result is that the opening of the economy will be citizen driven. It is already happening. Let's hope that politicians do not attempt to get in the way. History teaches us that doing so could result in the kind of civil unrest that would not be conducive to the maintenance of democracy.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Especially if you fairly compare how influenza and COVID-19 deaths are counted by the CDC.

When was the last time that seasonal flu victims had to be stored in rented refrigerated trucks in hospital parking lots, and funeral homes were packing the corpses into U-Hauls?

2018.

 

[JimT]

Interesting report (published April 20) on what's required to get people confident about working/playing again in a safe environment:

https://ethics.harvard.edu/files/ce...maptopandemicresilience_updated_4.20.20_0.pdf

Inter alia, they suggest the required level of testing to not have to revert again to mass social distancing as 2% to 6% of the population a day. That's 5 million to 20 million tests a day.

Current testing in the US:

https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

How many of you have been tested or know of someone who has been tested for the presence of the virus? For every case that yielded a negative result, how many were tested again at a later date? Apply the same questions to antibody tests.

So if you apply those requirements worldwide how long is it going to take to put it into place worldwide and is it even feasible from a staffing and testing materials standpoint. Having Cass Sunstein involved is a raging red flag!!!!!

 

[INTJ]

In the USA, leaders can only govern by the consent of the governed. The governed will only consent when the leaders take reasonable and sound actions. In most circumstances voting is how the governed express their lack of consent. In special circumstances they protest, like we are seeing now.

When the virus first appeared no one really know how to respond. Thus it was reasonable to take the extreme measures that we did. Even those of who know models are junk were willing to go along initially.

However, the data coming in now clearly shows the models were beyond junk, our "experts" were enormously wrong, and the drive to keep thing shut down is mostly political.

I do not know who is being polled, but I do know polls are nearly always skewed to get the desired result. These polls say something like 80% of people don't want things opened up too quickly. I have not come across anyone who thinks that way.

For those who are afraid, they need to use reason instead of emotion and look at the data, the history of respiratory viruses, and the modus operandi of the progressive left.