COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[JimT]

Interesting analysis here looking at the projected impact on hospital beds, ICU beds etc by State. Note the 'cone' of uncertainty of the models.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Projected peak load for Florida is still a month away.



Intelligent! Watch the documentary series and see if you still have that conclusion... The threat has been around for eons.

I don’t have any confidence in any of those numbers since Governor Cuomo said he alone needed 30,000 ventilators and your website projects only a little more than 30,000 nationwide at the peak!!

 

[SGK]

Could be right. It models 13k at max needed in NY. I wonder what the current assessed need is for NY, how many they have and how many are in use...

 

[JimT]

Could be right. It models 13k at max needed in NY. I wonder what the current assessed need is for NY, how many they have and how many are in use...

That’s the least of my worries since the subway system continues to run and the blatant disregard for the shelter in place order is astounding!

 

[rebel]

So guys, if I said I think my wife and I already had this in early Jan. through early Feb., before to much was being said, would I be laughed out of the room? I wish someone here would do a test to see if we had antibodies, they are to busy testing to see if you currently have it. We were both awful sick, my partner at the store was sick. Couple days of sniffles and boom, lung city. Hung on for a while. I still ended up on an antibiotic due to a sinus infection. Coughed forever, tight chest. I am 55, my BP is under control through meds and I take a statin, like most guys my age. Still active, still strong. I don't know. Sickest I've been in a while.

 

[SGK]

Like London, you need to keep the subway running as so many critical care workers rely on it. NYC is a ghost town like London. Miami not so at all!

 

[JimT]

Google “New York Crowds” and apply your RO of choice coupled with no real quarantine.

 

[SGK]

So guys, if I said I think my wife and I already had this in early Jan. through early Feb., before to much was being said, would I be laughed out of the room? I wish someone here would do a test to see if we had antibodies, they are to busy testing to see if you currently have it. We were both awful sick, my partner at the store was sick. Couple days of sniffles and boom, lung city. Hung on for a while. I still ended up on an antibiotic due to a sinus infection. Coughed forever, tight chest. I am 55, my BP is under control through meds and I take a statin, like most guys my age. Still active, still strong. I don't know. Sickest I've been in a while.

My kids and I all rolled through a bad flu in February/early March. Took me about three weeks to get over it properly. I understand a runny nose/sinus congestion is a sign of seasonal flu and not COVID, as is a mucous/phlegmy cough vs dry. High fever, persistent dry cough, body aches and loss of smell are the symptoms I've heard most about. But who knows - no way am I a doctor. I too wish they'd come up with a fast antibody test soon. But it requires drawing blood and is likely more complex. (And there's a lot of work to do the simpler "Have you got it now" test.) It's the only way to safely get a lot of people back to work though - or volunteering in hospitals.

Google “New York Crowds” and apply your RO of choice coupled with no real quarantine.

Friends of mine have posted pics of an absolutely deserted Manhattan but maybe they were in the wrong part of town

 

[rebel]

My kids and I all rolled through a bad flu in February/early March. Took me about three weeks to get over it properly. I understand a runny nose/sinus congestion is a sign of seasonal flu and not COVID, as is a mucous/phlegmy cough vs dry. High fever, persistent dry cough, body aches and loss of smell are the symptoms I've heard most about. But who knows - no way am I a doctor. I too wish they'd come up with a fast antibody test soon. But it requires drawing blood and is likely more complex. (And there's a lot of work to do the simpler It's the only way to safely get a lot of people back to work though - or volunteering in hospitals.



Friends of mine have posted pics of an absolutely deserted Manhattan but maybe they in the wrong part of town

Yep, had THAT. Not flu. BTW my wife is a nurse.

 

[antelopedundee]

Interesting modeling here looking at the projected impact on hospital beds, ICU beds etc by State. Note the 'cone' of uncertainty of the models.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Projected peak load for Florida is still a month away and doesn't look good versus the number of ICU beds available. Oregon could be one of the places to be...



Intelligent! Watch the documentary series and see if you still have that conclusion... The threat has been around for eons.

Chemical warfare is more like what Saddam Hussein foisted onto the Kurds and Bashar Assad did to his own people with mustard gas, chlorine, sarin, etc. There isn't much of anything on this earth that isn't chemical so complex biochemicals can be considered chemical weapons. So what is your definition of germ warfare or biological warfare then? Since both can be considered to be "chemicals"?

 

[JimT]

Two and one-half months after the first warning signs:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-17/nyc-nears-shelter-in-place-decision-while-cuomo-says-call-is-his

And this was 5 days after Trump was vilified by the left for putting a ban on flights from Europe!

 

[SGK]

So what is your definition of germ warfare or biological warfare then? Since both can be considered to be "chemicals"?

There has to be "warfare" - engagement in or the activities involved in war or conflict - for starters. Keep hold of that pitchfork.

 

[jds holler]

Here are some suppositions which I believe carry some weight in this matter.

The spread, and resulting deaths from this virus are probably inevitable, and will continue for years.

Slowing down the spread, especially in densely populated areas, will likely decrease the number of deaths in those areas where medical resources are inadequate and overloaded.

Quarantines, shut-downs, and social distancing in remote and less populated areas, probably won't make much difference in the eventual spread and inevitable deaths that may result. It is simply going to happen.

It is a fairly credible belief that there is a large movement in this country and the world (probably more than one), that is very happy to exploit this crisis for all it's worth in order to accomplish political goals, power grabs, and social change; also huge economic profits.

It is also true that the basic economic destruction ours and other first world countries, will likely cause incredible numbers of deaths, poverty, war, and insecurity in many or most parts of the world in the foreseeable future.

I think it is also a valid supposition that the world media is VERY biased toward one side of every aspect of this nightmare, and that side isn't always in our best interests.

I also believe as was mentioned above that this is in God's plan, and we individuals have very little control or influence over how it will go. Guys like us have the advantage of a low fear factor, and we do a lot of praying for all aspects of this situation, and all people involved. jd

 

[antelopedundee]

There has to be "warfare" - engagement in or the activities involved in war or conflict - for starters. Keep hold of that pitchfork.

I didn't introduce warfare. Another poster did.

If there was warfare it would be biological and chemical and the virus would be a bio weapon and not a chemical one.

 

[antelopedundee]

Interesting modeling here looking at the projected impact on hospital beds, ICU beds etc by State. Note the 'cone' of uncertainty of the models.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Projected peak load for Florida is still a month away and doesn't look good versus the number of ICU beds available. Oregon could be one of the places to be...



Intelligent! Watch the documentary series and see if you still have that conclusion... The threat has been around for eons.

Understood. It or something similar or even worse will probably strike again within 10 years and we likely won't be any better prepared for it next time either.

 

[spclark]

Understood. It will probably strike again within 10 years and we likely won't be prepared for it next time either.

10? Hardly. It's not going to go away now that it's widespread. We'll see seasonal recurrences every year until there's a viable vaccine that's safe, widely available, and is kept up with whatever subtle evolutionary changes this stuff happens to undergo.

Pretty much the same scenario as the influenza variants we get shots for every fall. Sometimes the vaccine companies pick the strain they're building a vaccine for right, sometimes it's not the one they picked and the resulting product is essentially useless. That's what happened last fall.

This new one differs from what's come before in that it's most contagious while the infected still don't experience any symptoms. And it causes such an overwhelming immune response in some individuals that they succumb to the uncontrolled immune response their bodies bring forth because of the high levels of toxins the body can't get rid of fast enough to keep cells from dying faster than they can be replaced.

But DON'T LOSE HOPE. There's lots of folks doing solid research on what can be done to disable how this protein (which after all is what it is - it's not 'alive' like a bacteria but it hijacks our cells into reproducing more of itself instead of doing their jobs) does what it does. This article today is about one such project.

Then there's this article, which I'm really surprised to see coming out considering what The Atlantic's been printing for years now.

I hope this gets some real traction because I (for one) think there's more than a grain of truth behind what's being presented.

 

[antelopedundee]

10? Hardly. It's not going to go away now that it's widespread. We'll see seasonal recurrences every year until there's a viable vaccine that's safe, widely available, and is kept up with whatever subtle evolutionary changes this stuff happens to undergo.

Pretty much the same scenario as the influenza variants we get shots for every fall. Sometimes the vaccine companies pick the strain they're building a vaccine for right, sometimes it's not the one they picked and the resulting product is essentially useless. That's what happened last fall.

This new one differs from what's come before in that it's most contagious while the infected still don't experience any symptoms. And it causes such an overwhelming immune response in some individuals that they succumb to the uncontrolled immune response their bodies bring forth because of the high levels of toxins the body can't get rid of fast enough to keep cells from dying faster than they can be replaced.

But DON'T LOSE HOPE. There's lots of folks doing solid research on what can be done to disable how this protein (which after all is what it is - it's not 'alive' like a bacteria but it hijacks our cells into reproducing more of itself instead of doing their jobs) does what it does. This article today is about one such project.

Then there's this article, which I'm really surprised to see coming out considering what The Atlantic's been printing for years now.

I hope this gets some real traction because I (for one) think there's more than a grain of truth behind what's being presented.

I edited my post after you quoted it. Like SARS, H1N1,MERS something other than COVID-19 will probably come along. I can't remember the last time I had the flu and I get a shot every year. Hopefully it will be the same for CV-19. So far the only annual vaccine given is for the flu. Seeing how nasty it is, a vaccine for CV-19 will most likely need to be taken for some years to come.

 

[Clark]

WA state passed peak hospital last week and will have peak deaths tomorrow. Projections made on assumption of shutdown through May.
http://covid19.healthdata.org/

 

[Willow]

I feel sorry for you guys at the moment, it's going to be sometime before you get a handle on this virus so please do your best to stay safe and healthy. We're just starting to get on top of this in Australia. The main benefit we have is our population is a lot smaller so our lock down procedures are proving effective and we can safely isolate ourselves from the rest of the world being a large island.

 

[Laurie]

But who knows - no way am I a doctor. I too wish they'd come up with a fast antibody test soon. But it requires drawing blood and is likely more complex.

If you've been following the UK situation you'll have heard our health secretary say that 3.5M antigen test kits are on order and that widescale immunity testing will be in use in weeks with simple finger-prick home test + post the [whatever] that holds a blood trace to a lab.

That was last week and I had sincere doubts given what I heard elsewhere. Now it turns out that there is no reliable antigen test, so there is nothing yet to order. (An option to buy has been placed once a reliable system turns up, but that may well be later rather than sooner.) We keep being fed fairytales over here. Whether such a simple to use finger-prick home test is really feasible has also yet to be proven so this may be another over-simplistic 'jam tomorrow solution' to stop the children worrying.

There is a small but growing groundswell of opinion here outside of government that almost everybody is going to catch Covid-19 eventually (short of a vaccine appearing much, much earlier than anybody now believes) and that it's an 80/20 problem. Restrictions should be lifted completely once the present peak of hospital admissions is over on the 80% whose risk of serious illness or death arising from infection is very low. The 20% are all over-70s and those of any age with serious health conditions that make infection dangerous. In the view of some of this approach's supporters there would be enforced 100% isolation for members of this group (which includes me on age grounds) for as 'long as it takes' or until an effective vaccine arrives. I suspect that some form of this approach, not as drastic as complete isolation for the 20% though, will become the exit strategy in western countries.

 

[SGK]

I've always been of the view that the vaste majority of us will get this thing unless and until a vaccine has been widely distributed. Even if there was a proven vaccine today, just imagine the sheer logistics of administering that on a global basis (or even merely within the US) while maintaining social distancing (you can't just have a few million people form an orderly queue in Central Park for example).

So, again, in my opinion it's about managing the path to "herd immunity" suppression while attempting to manage the burden on the healthcare system. Specialists in this arena expect that "herd immunity" isn't reached until at least 60-80% of the population has got it and recovered. (Even then we don't yet know how long immunity will last.) NPI will be eased not when the virus has gone but when hospital bed capacity becomes available. Luckily the IFR for younger generations is relatively low - imagine the impact to the economy if it hit the youngest hardest. Luckily we have technology that, when available, can save a lot of lives that would otherwise be tossed into the street as was the case with previous pandemics.

So, back to my sausage making analogy: how best to squeeze an entire population through a virus with least "excess" loss of life. Make sure the casing (healthcare system) doesn't burst first.

I agree that there needs to be NPI scaled towards those most at risk. But it's quite tricky to do. You have to convince, for example, the young to go back to work even as their colleagues are falling ill (some mildly, others worse yet mostly recovering) and still tell them they can't visit their grandparents or do things that might harm those at risk. It is these sorts of questions that are now before the committees being formed in Europe to explore the lifting of NPI. IMHO reopening schools has to be a first step.

The very good news is that while complacency could have led to this thing being much, much worse re loss of life, action - even if it took awhile for some to realise the enormity of the situation - is working. As far as the economy is concerned, we've learnt a lot since the likes of 1929 and the kitchen sink has been thrown at this. We can afford it (but watch out for the rebirth of inflation). I've been buying stocks during sharp bouts of weakness. (That's not to say any reader of that statement should!) But this thing is going to ramble on for awhile. Let's hope the virus doesn't mutate and become a seasonal thing.