COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

@Clark Apply your analysis to Italy and specifically the regions of Lombardy and Veneto. Here's some data for Italian deaths by region in 2018 to help you with it.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/569435/number-of-deaths-in-italy-by-region/

There have been more than 15,300 deaths in Italy with those two regions, particularly Lombardy, taking the biggest hits. There remain over 88,000 active cases, with currently circa 5% deemed serious or critical. And that's all with some of the toughest NPI implemented in Europe. (US implementation of NPI doesn't come close.) Now imagine an unchecked virus.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

The USA has 327 million people
COVID-19 has caused 8,000 deaths in the USA
3 million people die in the USA every year
The USA got a 0.3% increase in death, without the media, no one would notice

Let's put this in the proper, time-corrected context. Calculated from CDC data:

Average daily deaths in the U.S. from:

Heart disease 1,774
Cancer 1,641
Accidents 466
Chronic lower respiratory disease 439
Stroke 401
Alzheimer's 333
Diabetes 229
Influenza and pneumonia 153
Kidney disease 139
Suicide 113

Yesterday, COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death in the U.S. (N=1,331). Sometime this week (tomorrow, most likely) COVID-19 will become the #1 cause of death, on a daily basis, in the U.S. It is already the leading cause of daily deaths in New Jersey.

NB: And for those who still don't understand logarithmic growth, consider that 16% of the total U.S. deaths since the beginning of the pandemic happened yesterday.

 

[Bc'z]

Hers the thing everyone is over looking.
It's all in God's plan!
But I guess you'd have to be a believer to understand!
So all the statistics really dont mean squat.
If it's your turn, it's your turn.
And ain't no amount of planning, prevention, social distancing is gonna save any of us from our turn.
The only option any of us have is to ask the Lord for his forgiveness.
I have!
Have you?

 

[SGK]

You could take a fatalistic view of it (or anything and everything for that matter - and never make any decisions). Alternatively you could believe that your god left room for mankind and individuals to shape outcomes. And perhaps, just perhaps, that ability, to grow, invent, develop and improve is part of his plan. We conquered malaria, ebola (for the most part) etc. We'll conquer this one in time. The Big Bang created some extraordinary beings.

 

[Bc'z]

I'll add you to my prayers

 

[sdean]

You could take a fatalistic view of it (or anything and everything for that matter - and never make any decisions). Alternatively you could believe that your god left room for mankind and individuals to shape outcomes. And perhaps, just perhaps, that ability, to grow, invent, develop and improve is part of his plan. We conquered malaria, ebola (for the most part) etc. We'll conquer this one in time. The Big Bang created some extraordinary beings.

Or did God set off the Big Bang?

 

[300_whisper]

You could take a fatalistic view of it (or anything and everything for that matter - and never make any decisions). Alternatively you could believe that your god left room for mankind and individuals to shape outcomes. And perhaps, just perhaps, that ability, to grow, invent, develop and improve is part of his plan. We conquered malaria, ebola (for the most part) etc. We'll conquer this one in time. The Big Bang created some extraordinary beings.

what do you do for a living SGK? You’re very good at analyzing numbers.

 

[SGK]

@sdean I never said he didn't. Just that he left a lot of freedom of movement/room for self-determination. Thanks @Bc'z.

@300_whisper I'm crap at analyzing numbers compared with some people I know! I have been in finance since I left university/college in '86. Done a few things within global investment banking - no "equities in Dallas" though. (Money market arbitrage, interest rate derivatives, advisory to transportation and telecoms sectors, EM equity capital markets.) Right now I help finance the design and construction of hospitals in emerging markets. I've been laid off 3x in my career. (The first after the TMT bubble burst took 4 years to bounce back from.) I don't consider myself particularly smart. Far smarter people made a lot more money than I ever did. I just like to fly fish and hunt (although I haven't cracked the latter on this side of the pond yet) and spend time with my young kids (5 and 7 1/2).

 

[300_whisper]

@sdean I never said he didn't. Just that he left a lot of freedom of movement/room for self-determination. Thanks @Bc'z.

@300_whisper I'm crap at analyzing numbers compared with some people I know! I have been in finance since I left university/college in '86. Done a few things within global investment banking - no "equities in Dallas" though. (Money market arbitrage, interest rate derivatives, advisory to transportation and telecoms sectors, EM equity capital markets.) Right now I help finance the design and construction of hospitals in emerging markets. I've been laid off 3x in my career. (The first after the TMT bubble burst took 4 years to bounce back from.) I don't consider myself particularly smart. Far smarter people made a lot more money than I ever did. I just like to fly fish and hunt (although I haven't cracked the latter on this side of the pond yet) and spend time with my young kids (5 and 7 1/2).

I’m an engineer that does accounting for my department, when needed. Just reading your posts and a lot of what you’re saying is familiar to me in terms of viewing situations from a math perspective. I also analyze data for my company to make sure machines are running within spec. Cool stuff. You live in the wrong part of America to enjoy guns and hunting. South Flordia deer are the size of beagles. Lol. Welcome to America. Enjoy the 2A as much as you can. I hope your family benefits greatly from being here too. Thanks for the posts.

 

[SGK]

Yup. It's ironic that I had far greater access to hunting when I lived in central London, five minutes walk to Kensington Palace. Folk in the US often poo-poo UK gun laws. And yet I could hunt deer there all year round. Closed seasons by sex for some species, yes, but 5 species close by - fallow, roe, chinese water deer and the little muntjac (small but the tastiest of them all) - and red deer not too far away. No tags. No bag limits. I'd often get a call during the weekend asking to help 'move' some fallow off an estate. The goal was to fill the chiller and sell into the food chain. My local range was Bisley - a 3,000 acre shooting facility.

But here we have Biscayne Bay and the Everglades! The tarpon are about to migrate and they've closed all the marinas. :-(

 

[SGK]

BTW anyone who ever protested against common sense immunization programs, including the 'flu vaccine, or refused to vaccinate their children should, in my opinion, be at the absolute back of the queue globally for a COVID-19 vaccination should one be created.

 

[Clark]

So you're comparing annual mortality from other causes to a pandemic that is 2-3 months old in most of the world, and still growing exponentially?

You'll have to explain why we shouldn't ignore your "analysis".

The same Toby Bradshaw answering my posts in 1994 on rec.guns?

The bio prof at the UW? Must be. I spent a lot of time in Normandy Park in the 60s. My wife made me watch this video on March 15

So I know a logistics curve.
I don't know how much further to the inflection point, but I posted what we do know.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

The same Toby Bradshaw answering my posts in 1994 on rec.guns? The bio prof at the UW?

No doubt. I always post under my own name. Retired from the UW last year as Chair of Biology after finishing the new Life Sciences Building.

I spent a lot of time in Normandy Park in the 60s.

I'm mostly in central Oregon now -- 7,000 people in a county of 8,000 square miles. No COVID-19 cases (yet).

My wife made me watch this video on March 15

So I know a logistics curve.

Then you should know better than to make a comparison between linear and logarithmic fatality rates at different time scales.

I don't know how much further to the inflection point, but I posted what we do know.

U.S. cases are increasing by about 12% per day now (vs. >30% two weeks ago). The 3-day moving average of changes in that increase is about -1% per day. So, roughly 1-2 weeks until the daily cases stop increasing, if the current trend continues. Peak deaths most likely will occur shortly after that.

 

[300_whisper]

^ very cool.

 

[Clark]

I did derive a formula this week for time to double on an exponential curve based on two data points at two times:
[T2-T1] ln2 /[ln (N2/N1)] = time to double

I have an interesting anecdote about math and UW professors.
25 years ago (3) assistant professors visited my super insulated solar home way out in the sticks, to give me an IQ test and get a blood sample for a joint study by the UW genetics and psychology departments. The applied math was nothing more than softball freshman calculus. But one a,b,c, or d, problem had no right answer. So I figured out what mistake the test writer must have made and chose that one. The results came back I was top 0.1% in applied math. Which is not true. I told them their test was flawed and the choice of markers in their study was wrong, but these were just soldiers. The study found that I carried the gene in question.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

I did derive a formula this week for time to double on an exponential curve based on two data points at two times:
[T2-T1] ln2 /[ln (N2/N1)] = time to double

10 days ago in this thread.

 

[Clark]

Looks like you posted that before I derived it.

 

[SGK]

The documentary series "Pandemic" available on Netflix, filmed in 2019, could not have been more prescient.

This documentary series really ought to be compulsory viewing.

 

[antelopedundee]

My personal opinion all this is a blatant form of chemical warfare from China point blank.

Biological warfare would be a more accurate description.

 

[SGK]

Interesting modeling here looking at the projected impact on hospital beds, ICU beds etc by State. Note the 'cone' of uncertainty of the models.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Projected peak load for Florida is still a month away and doesn't look good versus the number of ICU beds available. Oregon could be one of the places to be...

Biological warfare would be a more accurate description.

Intelligent! Watch the documentary series and see if you still have that conclusion... The threat has been around for eons.