Where are the primers going? Seriously
- Thread starter BULLET 05
- Start date
46and2
Silver $$ Contributor
I agree 100 percent, but I also don't want the (current) federal administration to meddle in such matters though. They'd absolutely make things much much worse!
Well, you've given your own answer here in this statement. The USA was involved in a lengthy 'hot' medium size war (Vietnam) and was half way through a much longer 'cold' war with the Soviet bloc. The West, particularly the US, was permanently on a semi-war footing. The US and UK particularly were resourced to produce large quantities of the principal (conventional) munitions used by their armies and huge stocks of smallarms ammunition were held that could be drawn on should things go down the plughole in Germany with a Soviet invasion. As I noted in an earlier post, that's why we had so much cheap surplus 7.62 available - if you hold strategic stocks that are many times larger than annual consumption, and you have an assigned 'storage life' of 12 or 15 years, then you have huge stocks of 'out of date' cartridges to dispose of each year through the commercial international arms trade. What percentage of civilian recreational shooting was resourced from those cheap military surplus cartridges? A damn big one! What we also had was the manufacturing capacity to produce and maintain these ongoing production levels - plus a substantial strategic reserve capacity that could be called on to increase supply quickly and substantially in the event of 'the balloon going up'.
That was then ......... then in 1984, the Soviet bloc imploded, the Berlin Wall was torn down and we'd never see another major war. (So 'people' said.) Vietnam was long finished, we Brits started dismantling BAOR (British Army of the Rhine); the US started the long slow process of doing the same to whatever it called its equivalent contingent in Europe, not just in Germany but in the UK too (mostly USAF bases and squadrons, every one now long gone).
Here's an excerpt from a 1970 UK Parliament debate:
ARMY ESTIMATES, 1970–71, VOTE A
HC Deb 12 March 1970 vol 797 cc1576-6951576§3.59 p.m.
Land Forces = Army only in Britspeak, not RN or RAF.
So that's 351,000 regular and reserve uniformed British Army personnel (excludes civilian support staff).
Today, the British Army has just over 80,000 'regulars' plus the Territorial Army part-timers (= US National Guard units), around a quarter of the '71 figure, and using a lot less ammo per head than back then. Moreover, the infantry is probably proportionately smaller now and in terms of weapons, vehicles and systems spend gets a much smaller share of the overall cake because of the ballooning cost of fancy high-tech weapons systems. (Before we - and you - pulled out of Afghanistan, British squaddies talked irreverently of shooting a Porsche at Taliban HMG or mortar crews sniping at British positions from outside of 5.56 effective range. Before snipers and their kit were enhanced and a $2.50 (?) 338LM round or two took the other side's effectives out, it was an airstrike, or artillery fire mission or a Javelin missile which in round figures cost the same as a Porsche!)
With the partial exception of the US, the West hasn't just taken advantage of the so-called 'peace dividend', many countries have milked it to the near destruction of their armed forces' effectiveness - eg Germany!
Ammunition and components production facilities were closed or sold off to the private sector which has shareholders to answer to, a burgeoning health & safety 'industry' on its back in any facility that makes, stores, or uses explosives and in the case of explosives plants (ie powders and primers) public hostility and encroaching residential developments that ever more onerous safety regs then force the factories to close. (I've never understood why the houses shouldn't be torn down instead if the plant had been there for decades beforehand.)
Long periods of reduced orders are historically not at all uncommon in these industries. What is different now is that whilst key plants were all government owned in previous generations, they've now been sold to the private sector which simply cannot afford to have expensive plants and capacity sitting idle for years, especially with ever-rising environmental and health & safety demands not only affecting running costs, but often requiring complete rebuilds ang megabuck investment (as in ADI, Mulwala). As a result, production capacity has severely declined across the sector. As I also said in an earlier post, with a few honourable exceptions such as the Australian government which part-funded the Mulwala ADI powder factory modernisation to keep it in business, most countries simply have no interest in supporting a now mostly privately owned sector in the interests of national security. Also, I don't think the senior soldiers have helped much either - they've fallen head over heels in love with high-tech Star Wars technology, so a few Javelin missiles replace millions of rifle cartridges in budgets.
In the civilian sector, these factors have reduced sources of supply massively over the years starting with the loss of surplus ammo, despite ongoing growth in shooting and large increases in per capita annual ammunition and components consumption. How many powders are listed in Hodgdon's burn rate chart? 163 in the newest one I can find. How many factories in the West provide those pistol and rifle handloading powders? A mere 9 that I can think of (General Dynamics Valleyfield + St. Marks; Eurenco P.B. Clermont + Bofors; Explosia; Thales / ADI; Nitrochemie Wimmins a.g.; Nammo Vihtavuori Oy; and someone at Radford Va (New Rivers Energetics?). Primer manufacture is worse with a smaller number of producers, all tied to ammunition factories, so that application gets priority. Note too, that only two plants are in the USA, and for rifle powders only one (St. Marks in Florida). You in the US are shipping most of your handloading powders thousands of miles .......... and we now have post-Covid international shipping capacity crisis ............ and ships' masters who have the right to say 'accept' or 'reject' to any shipment to be put on their vessels are wary of propellants, and many will reject primers out of hand. .... AND, this is peacetime, so very limited US military demand.
As far as I can see, there are NO conspiracies out there causing shortages, no UFOs, NO secret warehouses full of government stashed primers (OMG - I wish there were, just in case we ever have to fight somebody bigger than the Taliban. I doubt if we could source the Vietnam war's demand for smallarms ammo now!) It's a simple case of supply and demand being out of balance, and given the vast restraints on manufacturing, storing, or transporting explosives these days, there are no simple answers to the supply side of the seesaw, even less so any quick ones.
AND .... IF we do get into even a 'modest' war, forget recreational ammo and handloading supplies. Governments will ruthlessly seize production assets within their own jurisdictions and switch everything to military supplies and / or outbid us in the world markets for the outputs of the independent producers.
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AH maybe and Maybe Not !. Anyone actually seen any American arms or armament in Ukraine .
Talk is cheap beware of the illusions .
Laurie ; One plausible exception which failed mention ; GREED !. Explanation ;
Why produce massive amounts of primers ,when their selling for nearly #4 times the cost in 2019 -2020 !.
Same way with ammo ,artificial shortages keeps demand as well as profits UP and UP !.
Example Jan. 2020 I purchased Two 1K round cases of 9mm Top name brand ammo ,delivered for $150.00 and $160.00 . NO shortages or supply problems ,retrospectively should have ordered a Pallet !.
Primers same situation , Federal GM were $ 32.95 ,magnum $35.95 and NO shortages .
Within #6 months you couldn't lay your hands on ANYTHING firearm related !.
So IF stockpile was so low ,WHY were manufacturers selling inventory so cheaply ??. Stockpiles WEREN'T low !.
As with ALL things firearms ,prices have shot nearly out of sight price wise ; A decent 9mm Pistol is $650.00- 3,500.00 ,just crazy crap .
You remember what the Bozo said about coming for your AR's?. Well perhaps they've realized an easier way to neutralize the problem ( in their minds anyway ) make components so expensive ,as to discourage NEW participants and have Mega wealthy benefactors snatch up the Lions share ,so as NOT to be readily available to John Q Public !. It would be immediately known and suspected if ALL components disappeared but trickle down ,with the plandemic and YOU'VE succeeded in curbing availability .
I'm telling ALL of you there is something far more sinister afloat than the good ship Titanic realizes !.
What type of Mental Midget draws down strategic Oil reserves ,in the midst of an Open conflict with one adversary ,let alone China on the move to destroy OUR Country !!!. Make NO mistake the dope in the WH is being paid to allow it too happen !. FYi ; Our 6-8 Million person army is rather defenseless without AMMO and our ENEMIES KNOW THAT !. China will NOT make the mistake Japan did in WWll !.
Why produce massive amounts of primers ,when their selling for nearly #4 times the cost in 2019 -2020 !.
Same way with ammo ,artificial shortages keeps demand as well as profits UP and UP !.
Example Jan. 2020 I purchased Two 1K round cases of 9mm Top name brand ammo ,delivered for $150.00 and $160.00 . NO shortages or supply problems ,retrospectively should have ordered a Pallet !.
Primers same situation , Federal GM were $ 32.95 ,magnum $35.95 and NO shortages .
Within #6 months you couldn't lay your hands on ANYTHING firearm related !.
So IF stockpile was so low ,WHY were manufacturers selling inventory so cheaply ??. Stockpiles WEREN'T low !.
As with ALL things firearms ,prices have shot nearly out of sight price wise ; A decent 9mm Pistol is $650.00- 3,500.00 ,just crazy crap .
You remember what the Bozo said about coming for your AR's?. Well perhaps they've realized an easier way to neutralize the problem ( in their minds anyway ) make components so expensive ,as to discourage NEW participants and have Mega wealthy benefactors snatch up the Lions share ,so as NOT to be readily available to John Q Public !. It would be immediately known and suspected if ALL components disappeared but trickle down ,with the plandemic and YOU'VE succeeded in curbing availability .
I'm telling ALL of you there is something far more sinister afloat than the good ship Titanic realizes !.
What type of Mental Midget draws down strategic Oil reserves ,in the midst of an Open conflict with one adversary ,let alone China on the move to destroy OUR Country !!!. Make NO mistake the dope in the WH is being paid to allow it too happen !. FYi ; Our 6-8 Million person army is rather defenseless without AMMO and our ENEMIES KNOW THAT !. China will NOT make the mistake Japan did in WWll !.
D Coots
Silver $$ Contributor
Russia and China need not worry. Destroying this country is happening from within, just like they said would happen back around 1776 or so.
Albany Mountain
Silver $$ Contributor
Ditto
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One method of fixing the primer shortage is having , Shooters NOT buy loaded ammunition !.
Two things would prevail ; Prices of ammo would drop as would demand ,there by freeing up Primers into the reloading market again . Put a Priority on NOT purchasing ammo ,for 2022 and see what happens by Fall , SALES GALORE !. In My Best Walter Brennan accent I practically guarantee it !.
Two things would prevail ; Prices of ammo would drop as would demand ,there by freeing up Primers into the reloading market again . Put a Priority on NOT purchasing ammo ,for 2022 and see what happens by Fall , SALES GALORE !. In My Best Walter Brennan accent I practically guarantee it !.
drop_point
Silver $$ Contributor
Not all shooters reload. In fact, reloaders are a small minority.
CJ6
Silver $$ Contributor
The VAST majority of shooters only buy LOADED ammo.....Hand-loaders are THE smallest part in the shooting industry. That makes us the bottom of the food chain for components. To think otherwise is foolish.
Perhaps 5-7 years ago ,I'd have agreed to that statement but NOT any longer . As I'm always involved in some type of research and development regarding firearm related things , I can positively tell You or anyone else ,reloading components were in ultra short supply during the plandemic .
I had orders for several Die sets and their components in 2020 ,as in Batches of them . EVERY supplier was out and NO delivery due date . I'm speaking of #5 major Companies and their largest distributors , in Oct. 2021 sent Me a notice ,they would NOT be able to fulfill MY backorders . Then all of a sudden in Nov. 2021
within #3 days of each other ,mysteriously I received notice from EVERY SINGLE SUPPLIER ,that MY order could be fulfilled at a substantial PRICE INCREASE !!!. Seems cost had gone up as much as 70% in some items ,yet across the board about 40% was average .
First " HOW " did other supply companies KNOW ,I had ordered from each other !??. Secondly ALL notices came within #3 Days of each other !!?. I wasn't even able to find #1 stinking universal de-capping Die for over #10 months ,ALL were OUT OF STOCK !!!. Expander balls stems Dies ALL were OUT OF STOCK !.
Yet when prices increased Significantly , EVERYTHING BECAME AVAILABLE , Oh how convenient the web of collusion !. NO I Don't own Tin foil head wear but am certainly old enough to know the differences between Chit and Shinola .
I agree.
A store that never sold much reloading stuff before had some Winchester SP & SR primers in new red white & black boxes over the weekend. $12.99/100 with a limit of 3. They still have them & can choke on them at that price. They also had a couple cases of H110 @$39/lb. & a few other odd powders for not real good prices. They're a good sized chain store so apparently opportunistic upper management jumped on the greed bandwagon.
Where's the wood stocked rifles? I have cash in my pocket & it's all junky plastic eyesores in 308, 6.5 Creedmoor, or 300 WinMag. or $1000 lever guns in 38/357. Used rifle racks have disappeared.
Where's the wood stocked rifles? I have cash in my pocket & it's all junky plastic eyesores in 308, 6.5 Creedmoor, or 300 WinMag. or $1000 lever guns in 38/357. Used rifle racks have disappeared.
UPS just delivered more primers over my gate per instructions. No signature required. I ordered them on the 20th and they are here on the 25th. I've had 3 primer deliveries in about 6 weeks. I know they're not at the price we want them at, but they'll never be at the price they were before the crap started.
I would never support any denying anyone from shooting and owning what they want.Take all the black rifles and make them single shots and the rest of us will have ammo/primers.....
And I happen to only own single shot rifles
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