Well now is as good a time as any to let us know what’s going to be in short supply and expensive. I have a plentiful supply of bullets, primers and powder so you can exclude those.I hope you're right.
In the short term stuff will be cheap, then expensive when it's all gone and the supply chain lags. All this new money will just make these limited items even more expensive. And the longer the economy is shut the down the worse this cycle will be and the longer to recover.
If we get lucky the porkulus bill will truly help cover the gap and businesses will be able to quickly get back up to speed, but that would be the best case scenario.
More likely, in the long term we will lose many businesses and many of the items we are used to getting quickly and cheaply recently will be limited and expensive. Whether or not that remains the new normal or we return to where we were before the COVID overreaction is not yet written.
As to the dollar devaluation......Given many other nations will have to take similar actions as the US, I doubt the dollar loses standing. I don't think hyperinflation is likely, and I don't think we will even see the inflation rate of the late 70s.
I will consider it fortunate if by the end of the year unemployment is less that 8% and housing values have only dropped 10%. We can recover from that but we need to start opening things now.









