Ok a lot to look at here.@Bc'z
Basically no 2nd firing brass is in need of full-sizing yet (a bad example to compare from - IME).
Even 3rd firing is to soon to compare from.
What indifference do you see in case measurements at the expansion line, shoulder, and case headspace from say 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th firing brass?
Or from a same cycle, but a long string, where the chamber was subjected to wide range of temperature variation?
On your targets, the fly'ers you blame on yourself. How do you know they were you, and not the load?
IME - any time you have variance in brass specifications, fly'ers like those in your targets can be expected and/or to blame.
IME - anytime a bolt closes harder on one round more then another, again fly'ers can be expected, and a product of neck sizing only.
Also, why do you look so hard at 100yd results for high BC VLD's like your using. Distance is what there designed for and what will tell you the true tales of the loads (100yd results tell me very little what to expect down range with long, heavy bullets).
At one time I also neck sized only (like many people have at one time or another). But soon after learned better and seen the light and advantages to F/L sizing every time.
I get that 2 firings are not in need of full length sizing. As for the RP brass with multiple firings, that I never measured base to datum.
Lapua brass has grown .002-.0025 after 3 firings.
I have since started keeping track of case growth and times fired.
Still not weight sorting or checking volume.
As for long strings of firing I've never shot more than 5 rounds in a string, being a factory sporter and all, even I'm not that dumb.
Flyers I know for a fact I pulled the 3rd shot on the right hand group of 4.
Have shot this same load at 300 into an inch group.
Flyers could also be contributed to not all the same lot of brass as it was derived from factory ammo, and never sorted by weight.
So is a 30 06 case with a fair amount of body taper fully supported when die is backed out 3/4 turn?