Lot Numbers

[VLNBYR]

Many a rimfire horse has been beaten to death only to find new life in the future.

 

[dutch14]

There are no good, easy, reliable, and quick ways to tell if lot a is better than lot b.

 

[CharlieNC]

Problems with depth perception and analysis paralysis often inhibit progress..... QED

 

[Hi-NV Shooter]

A set of data consisting of only 20 shots will never allow you to be at a 100% confidence level, at making a decision, that one lot of ammo is better than another.
The major benefit of testing at Lapua is that it allows you access to ammo that’s currently hard to find and increases the odds that the lot you select “might” be a good one for your rifle.
With the limited data, you pick the lot you believe shoots best, but statistically many of the better lots shot are nearly equal. With more rounds shot, you could find one of those lots is better than the one you chose.
Great discussion, but at some point, I think we start beating the horse to death.

What you need to do as each lot is tested is watch how the 10-shots forms the final group shots 1-5 is critical as to an indication as to how that lot will fare on say an ARA UL target.
for any lot to shoot a zero group 0.000 all in the same hole the rifle will need to be perfectly in the same position for every shot. only then will you see the true performance factors of that lot. but we all know that is highly unlikely for that to happen. because now the barrel is also another factor that comes into play.

so, what we see in a 10-shot or 20 shot test string is only what the rifle will allow it is not a true test of the lot quality. this why the statement form Shane at Lapua is true somewhere down the line someone's rifle will shoot what someone rejected and may be the killer lot for them.

Lee

 

[dusterdave173]

So I am reading all of this and soaking it in for what it is worth and I go to a match this morning--local two card ARA Factory target
I took 4 lots of Center X I have won matches in the last few weeks with two of them and won with one of the other lots when it was a little cooler and not so humid--we don't get a warm up at this match
I start and it is going awful on sighters--I quickly swap lots and same deal and so I go to lot #3 Center X and decide to shoot the first card with it--11 x That will not get it at this match ( if you nick the X it counts at this local deal) so I grab a Hail Marry a box of Polar Biathlon that has not tested very exciting back when it was cooler--had been on the shelf--It hammered and I shot 21 X and pulled off a win Again this is an easy local match you only count your best card so..
But the thing I don't understand is how Winning ammo suddenly just will not shoot worth a hoot and ammo that had tested just OK suddenly shot like a Dream!
I sat there at first thinking action screw tq, cheek touching, bipod loaded against the pads under it--barrel not cleaned right --after that I was guessing WTH!!! then all of a sudden the Polar Saves the Day!!
A good lot today in todays conditions may not be in a month--I will never go again without 5-6 lots to have on hand
The only variable was weather conditions--everything on the rig was dead nuts the same in the last few months
So...weather conditions play a Giant factor in what is a "good" lot on that given day? I guess that means I can't show up with less than how many? What do you guys do? I mean when conditions were the same for a couple of months 3 of those lots were winning--if I had tested any of them today I would not have bought them

I have not noticed such big swings in the past--perhaps this weather from Hell pushed some of this ammo over the edge
Again factory CZ

 

[CharlieNC]

So I am reading all of this and soaking it in for what it is worth and I go to a match this morning--local two card ARA Factory target
I took 4 lots of Center X I have won matches in the last few weeks with two of them and won with one of the other lots when it was a little cooler and not so humid--we don't get a warm up at this match
I start and it is going awful on sighters--I quickly swap lots and same deal and so I go to lot #3 Center X and decide to shoot the first card with it--11 x That will not get it at this match ( if you nick the X it counts at this local deal) so I grab a Hail Marry a box of Polar Biathlon that has not tested very exciting back when it was cooler--had been on the shelf--It hammered and I shot 21 X and pulled off a win Again this is an easy local match you only count your best card so..
But the thing I don't understand is how Winning ammo suddenly just will not shoot worth a hoot and ammo that had tested just OK suddenly shot like a Dream!
I sat there at first thinking action screw tq, cheek touching, bipod loaded against the pads under it--barrel not cleaned right --after that I was guessing WTH!!! then all of a sudden the Polar Saves the Day!!
A good lot today in todays conditions may not be in a month--I will never go again without 5-6 lots to have on hand
The only variable was weather conditions--everything on the rig was dead nuts the same in the last few months
So...weather conditions play a Giant factor in what is a "good" lot on that given day? I guess that means I can't show up with less than how many? What do you guys do? I mean when conditions were the same for a couple of months 3 of those lots were winning--if I had tested any of them today I would not have bought them

I have not noticed such big swings in the past--perhaps this weather from Hell pushed some of this ammo over the edge
Again factory CZ

Just had lunch with Jonathan of Modacam, and discussing that topic among others. Does it happen, yes. Is it understood, not much. Tune over several days to find the best possible. Will everyone agree, no. But deeming something as always or never seldom works.

 

[Todd Earhart]

Exit timing change.
Todd

 

[dusterdave173]

I appreciate the responses--it was just so puzzling but when I finally got to the lot of Polar it really shined! It made it easy! so...do you just take a variety of ammo to each match and hope to find one that will work that day? I am just working to learn and get better I got lucky today --if I had only taken a couple I would have been Way down the list today
Thanks