Electric Cars -- anyone own one?

[Brians356]

Fair. And to the extent that California's EV share of new vehicle sales is above the national average then its share of EV registered base will rise.

My point is that if the EV share of new sales is currently 9% and rising one won't have to wait long to see EV share of all vehicles registered in the US change very rapidly (if the total vehicle stock has an average life of 12.5 years) - even without EV share of new sales climbing as high as Europe etc. The 0.6% figure is already in the rearview mirror. Figures at least 20x that are visible through the windshield.

Fair enough, but I'm betting against adoption rates in the US continuing to rise. I see you live in the #2 state for EV adoption. My sense is that your glasses a rose-tinted. There are severe headwinds ahead facing massive EV adoption, these earliest gains are the easiest.

So how clear is your windshield? By when do you predict 12% of the registered vehicles in the US will be pure BEVs (not including hybrids)?
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[SGK]

Within 15 years (and quite possibly within 10). A lot will depend on the success of EV in the 'truck' space given America's obsession with "never-never-never" trucks. (An industry term: never tow, never go off-road, never haul.) Urban, suburban, metro will of course lead the way.

 

[Brians356]

Axios: Unsold Electric Cars Are Piling Up On Dealer Lots

Details: The nationwide supply of EVs in stock has swelled nearly 350% this year, to more than 92,000 units.

• That's a 92-day supply — roughly three months' worth of EVs, and nearly twice the industry average.
• For comparison, dealers have a relatively low 54 days' worth of gasoline-powered vehicles in inventory as they rebound from pandemic-related supply chain interruptions.
• In normal times, there's usually a 70-day supply.
• Notably, Cox's inventory data doesn't include Tesla, which sells direct to consumers.

Zoom in: Some brands are seeing higher EV inventories than others.

• Genesis, the Korean luxury brand, sold only 18 of its nearly $82,000 Electrified G80 sedans in the 30 days leading up to June 29, and had 210 in stock nationwide — a 350-day supply, per Cox research.
• Other luxury models, like Audi's Q4 e-tron and Q8 e-tron and the GMC Hummer EV SUV, also have bloated inventories well above 100 days. All come with hefty price tags that make them ineligible for federal tax credits.
• Imported models like the Kia EV6, Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Nissan Ariya are also stacking up — likely because they're not eligible for tax credits either.
• Tesla's price-cutting strategy could be taking a toll, too: The once-hot Ford Mustang Mach-E now has a 117-day supply. Ford says that's the result of ramped-up production in anticipation of stronger third-quarter sales.

The intrigue: Hybrid vehicles have much lower inventory levels, supporting Toyota's argument that consumers want a stepping stone to fully electric cars.

• There's a relatively tight 44-day supply of hybrids industrywide, according to Cox.
• Toyotas are in particularly short supply — under 30 days each for Prius and RAV4 hybrids and plug-in hybrids.

Of note: Toyota's only fully electric model, the Bz4X, has a 101-day supply.

Unsold electric cars are piling up on dealer lots

There's a growing mismatch between EV supply and demand.

www.axios.com

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[D Coots]

2 bad

 

[NorCalMikie]

And then, California says to cut back on the AC use and charging of your EV because they can't handle the load??? (walk to work)
And your Homeowner Ins. rates go UP if you drive a EV and TRY to charge it at YOUR home???

 

[dellet]

But we have to have everyone driving electric cars, before we can know what’s involved with driving electric cars.

 

[M-61]

Wonder if the RORO that burnt (burning) at port Newark had how many electric cars?
This morning the news said the fire is “sustained “
I assume they meant CONTAINED?
They also reported devastation (from floods) at West Point was horrific, all 16 acres of the academy destroyed.
West Point is 16,000 acres.
I turned the news on by accident. I watch none of it but this caught my eye.

 

[M-61]

But we have to have everyone driving electric cars, before we can know what’s involved with driving electric cars.

Is this the same thought process as THALIDOMIDE?
With Agent Orange they knew exactly what they were doing?
How’s that resale value on electric cars?

 

[COLT45SA]

1) Immense destruction to the environment when mining lithium
2) Extremely toxic to the environment when the batteries are disposed of.
3) The U.S. won't be capable of producing the amount of lithium necessary to manufacture the number of batteries if the number of EVs projected to be made are made. SO,
4) China already controls most of the lithium in countries where it is found in the rest of the world.
5) An EMD could take your transportation away.
6) There's much, much more~!!

 

[Rick300]

But we have to have everyone driving electric cars, before we can know what’s involved with driving electric cars.

I see what you did there

 

[wedgy]

This shows California's current power demands and its supply make up

California ISO - Supply, Today's Outlook

View real-time and historical data on generation resources, including renewables, currently on the system.

www.caiso.com

It's not even hot yet(92F) and wait until everyone gets home from work and plugs in their 240 volt electric car, the demand will double and the solar (about 15,000MW) will go to zero when the sun goes down. At that point the need for natural gas and imports will have to make up the difference. But in it's infinite wisdom California is REDUCING its supply and storage of inexpensive natural gas and is planning to close the nuclear power plants. Remember your 5 times the normal gas bills last winter(Southern CA) ? Well that's what is going to happen with your electricity bill also. WE ALREADY PAY 67% MORE THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE FOR ELECTRICITY ! That is why everyone is leaving California.

 

[RabbitSlayer]

My mom has a tesla. 750 hp in insane mode sure is insane, but you couldn't give me one. I drive like an old fart cruise control 72 flat desert and it never came close to the 360 mile range. Electric cars are fine for driving to work and the store. I live in NV, and it can be 200 miles between services and there sure as hell are no chargers when you get there. I also dont have 30 min to an hr to stop on a road trip. I get upset if I have to wait 3 minutes for a gas pump. A plugin hybrid maybe, all electric never.

 

[rr2030]

I deal with electric vehicles daily. Not a fan. That being said, I see little choice. The momentum, justified or not, has the government dictating the future. I think it is foolish. Everything is based on junk science.

All this EV, climate change, Hunter's laptop, COVID, Ukraine, LBGFETSEWGJKKIUTR, Aliens, and the like are the distraction, it doesn't matter, we are all being funneled into the grinder for a greater purpose. It's what the handful of people that run the world want.

Now, where did I put my Aluminum Foil Deflector Beanie ...

 

[NorCalMikie]

we are all being funneled into the grinder for a greater purpose.

Soylent Green.

 

[jds holler]

Here's our commitment to future transportation and off grid living. Five hundred miles per charge @ $250 dollars. EMP proof. 55 years old, and still plugging along, not plugging in. The cost of this unit was fully amortized back when Johnson was in office, and it's still an important part of my fleet.

Show me an EV with this kind of performance. jd

 

[rr2030]

I think cousin Eddy has you beat, except for the mileage.

 

[SGK]

1) Immense destruction to the environment when mining lithium
2) Extremely toxic to the environment when the batteries are disposed of.
3) The U.S. won't be capable of producing the amount of lithium necessary to manufacture the number of batteries if the number of EVs projected to be made are made. SO,
4) China already controls most of the lithium in countries where it is found in the rest of the world.
5) An EMD could take your transportation away.
6) There's much, much more~!!

A very dated and narrow view, in my opinion. It omits, for example, the fact that the lithium in old batteries can be recycled - potentially meeting 60% of future demand. And it's news to me that China controls Latin America or particularly Bolivia, Mexico and Chile. Resource nationalism there is a bigger issue. For a more informative view around lithium see, for example, https://www.energy-transitions.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ETC_Materials_Factsheet_Lithium.pdf and a presentation covering all critical resources required for the transition see https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/material-and-resource-energy-transition/ Lots of progress being made across many fronts.

PS: I wasn't surprised to see the Ford F150 Lightning can do 0-60 in 4s, faster than Range Rover's premium vehicle Sport SVR. That can make a pickup truck a lot more fun. (Maybe I should trade in my SVR on one.)

The average US male vehicle owner drives a mere 45 miles a day (women drive less). Even current EV technologies provide plenty of range for a very large proportion of the population...

 

[COLT45SA]

A very dated and narrow view, in my opinion. It omits, for example, the fact that the lithium in old batteries can be recycled - potentially meeting 60% of future demand. And it's news to me that China controls Latin America or particularly Bolivia, Mexico and Chile. Resource nationalism there is a bigger issue. For a more informative view around lithium see, for example, https://www.energy-transitions.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ETC_Materials_Factsheet_Lithium.pdf and a presentation covering all critical resources required for the transition see https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/material-and-resource-energy-transition/ Lots of progress being made across many fronts.

PS: I wasn't surprised to see the Ford F150 Lightning can do 0-60 in 4s, faster than Range Rover's premium vehicle Sport SVR. That can make a pickup truck a lot more fun. (Maybe I should trade in my SVR on one.)

The average US male vehicle owner drives a mere 45 miles a day (women drive less). Even current EV technologies provide plenty of range for a very large proportion of the population...

So if we all bow down to "the-government-knows-best", our chances of survival will be increased by an appreciable amount~? Did you get the "jab"~!

 

[Buckeye_68]

No , but Ive driven a couple really hard.
UnGodly fast...and getting used to no engine noise? A little weird at first.
My friend tells me it takes about 33 bucks worth of electricity to charge his if he does it "off peak"... and gets about 350 miles to a charge if he behaves himself with the throttle. Splits the diff between 300 and 350 when he's in a hurry.
So if we say 330miles at 33 bucks "a tank", thats 10 miles to the dollar.

That will likely double when our electric grid is taxed by too many electric vehicles being charged at once ! Then maybe 5 mi per dollar ! Ha !

 

[Buckeye_68]

A very dated and narrow view, in my opinion. It omits, for example, the fact that the lithium in old batteries can be recycled - potentially meeting 60% of future demand. And it's news to me that China controls Latin America or particularly Bolivia, Mexico and Chile. Resource nationalism there is a bigger issue. For a more informative view around lithium see, for example, https://www.energy-transitions.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/ETC_Materials_Factsheet_Lithium.pdf and a presentation covering all critical resources required for the transition see https://www.energy-transitions.org/publications/material-and-resource-energy-transition/ Lots of progress being made across many fronts.

PS: I wasn't surprised to see the Ford F150 Lightning can do 0-60 in 4s, faster than Range Rover's premium vehicle Sport SVR. That can make a pickup truck a lot more fun. (Maybe I should trade in my SVR on one.)

The average US male vehicle owner drives a mere 45 miles a day (women drive less). Even current EV technologies provide plenty of range for a very large proportion of the population...

I wonder what the range on that F150 Lightning would be pulling a trailer or hauling in the mountains in say ….. winter ??