Daily life is an exercise in planning with incomplete data. We estimate, make judgements and act accordingly. Even the simple act of walking down the street involves such let alone managing a business or country. We consistently make judgement calls and hopefully based on best data available to us, sensory or otherwise. Those that plan using sensible assumptions, make good judgement calls or heed the judgment of those better placed to make certain assessments, deal with adversity and exploit opportunity generally get ahead. It's not whether 'modeling' has perfect insight that matters most (we're not talking about the fundamental laws of physics here even though they too are just models); it's whether they generally lead to the right sort of action.
It's rather stupid to say, for example, that the forecasted "do nothing" scenario as modeled by Imperial College was "wildly wrong." Thankfully, we rejected the "do nothing" scenario and intervened. We don't get to visit the alternate reality of doing nothing to see if that forecasted scenario was broadly right or wrong. However, when we look at their expectations then as to how effective a number of considered NPI might be it's interesting to see that they've generally been fairly right. Just take a look at Table 4 in the March 16th report. Not bad considering the incomplete data the modeling was based on.
It's rather stupid to say, for example, that the forecasted "do nothing" scenario as modeled by Imperial College was "wildly wrong." Thankfully, we rejected the "do nothing" scenario and intervened. We don't get to visit the alternate reality of doing nothing to see if that forecasted scenario was broadly right or wrong. However, when we look at their expectations then as to how effective a number of considered NPI might be it's interesting to see that they've generally been fairly right. Just take a look at Table 4 in the March 16th report. Not bad considering the incomplete data the modeling was based on.
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