COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

Daily life is an exercise in planning with incomplete data. We estimate, make judgements and act accordingly. Even the simple act of walking down the street involves such let alone managing a business or country. We consistently make judgement calls and hopefully based on best data available to us, sensory or otherwise. Those that plan using sensible assumptions, make good judgement calls or heed the judgment of those better placed to make certain assessments, deal with adversity and exploit opportunity generally get ahead. It's not whether 'modeling' has perfect insight that matters most (we're not talking about the fundamental laws of physics here even though they too are just models); it's whether they generally lead to the right sort of action.

It's rather stupid to say, for example, that the forecasted "do nothing" scenario as modeled by Imperial College was "wildly wrong." Thankfully, we rejected the "do nothing" scenario and intervened. We don't get to visit the alternate reality of doing nothing to see if that forecasted scenario was broadly right or wrong. However, when we look at their expectations then as to how effective a number of considered NPI might be it's interesting to see that they've generally been fairly right. Just take a look at Table 4 in the March 16th report. Not bad considering the incomplete data the modeling was based on.

 

[SGK]

On Feb 26 The Donald gave his Neville Chamberlain speech: "15 going to 0." A short while later it was broadly recognized that indeed we had to act rather than do nothing and buy time - time to plan, time to build the capacity of our medical infrastructure to respond. The only avenue available was NPI/"social distancing". A couple of months later and we have 976,731 active confirmed cases and likely a whole lot more. We still don't have a vaccine. We still don't have significant swab testing let alone antibody testing. I doubt people feel safer than they did in late February but they're likely much more aware, personally prepared and, hopefully, if they do fall ill and need healthcare support the system is better placed to provide for them. We need to get the economy functioning as best we can but make no mistake, things aren't going to be "normal" for quite some time. We have to learn to live with the virus and that isn't going to be how things were before.

 

[Laurie]

If that amounts to flipping a coin and then barging ahead, it's as likely to do harm as to do good.

Donkeys years ago my wife gave me a large coin type disk as a Christmas present. It was called an "Executive Decision Maker" and came in a fancy box with faux-serious instructions as to use. On one side the 'coin' was embossed with 'YES'; on the other 'NO' .... and you've guessed it you spun it in the air to get the decision.

If only I'd kept it and used it regularly, I could have gone much further in life and career. Come to think of it, a three sided pyramid could be a great wind reading tool for F-Class. Throw it on the mat and see what side comes up +1-MOA Left; +1-MOA Right; same as last shot.

 

[INTJ]

I will be glad when we are through this and will have the actual, correct data for infection rate, deaths, and economic damage with the associated poverty and deaths that will come from that. Then and only then will we know the true picture.

Right now, worldwide famine rates are expected to nearly double from, IIRC, 145 million to 270 million. Of course, that is a projection undoubtably based on an other model, and we know how good models are. By the time a model catches up with the data and is accurate, it is no longer predictive and of little value.

Even when we have all the data and know what happened, it may be of limited value during the next pandemic. In my 24 years as a USAF pilot I saw firsthand the problem. While we are very good at fighting the last war, the next war is an unknown. Still, we should prepare as much as we can and build flexibility into what our response will be.

 

[Brians356]

Right now, worldwide famine rates are expected to nearly double from, IIRC, 145 million to 270 million. Of course, that is a projection undoubtably based on an other model, and we know how good models are.

Forecasting a rise in famine based on near-term global economic trends may not be cut-and-dried, but there's certainly vastly less uncertainty involved compared to predicting the dynamics of a novel virus pandemic. But in either case there are necessarily uncertainties or confidence intervals to quantify.
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[Brians356]

On Feb 26 The Donald gave his Neville Chamberlain speech: "15 going to 0."

And three days later the expert, Dr Fauci, said:

"There’s no need to change anything that you’re doing on a day by day basis. Right now the risk is still low, but this could change. ... When you start to see community spread, this could change and force you to become much more attentive to doing things that would protect you from spread." 29 Feb 2020.

Until the White House team saw evidence of community spread, they were hopeful it could be contained, i.e. the existing 15 infections would recover. Optimistic? In hindsight, almost comically so. But then hindsight is always 20/20.
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[Brians356]

Compare two neighboring upper-midwest states: South Dakota’s Governor Kristi Noem has declined to order her constituents to stay home and has not closed any businesses. Minnesota’s Governor Tim Walz, on the other hand, has ordered one of the nation’s most extreme shutdowns. How's it working out?

Unemployment rate as of 25 April:

SD: 6.1% MN: 15.5%

Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 population:

SD: 3.3 MN: 8.8

So Minnesota's unemployment rate and Covid-19 death rate are both over 2.5x higher than South Dakota's.

I don't know what to make of these numbers.
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[JimT]

Compare two neighboring upper-midwest states: South Dakota’s Governor Kristi Noem has declined to order her constituents to stay home and has not closed any businesses. Minnesota’s Governor Tim Walz, on the other hand, has ordered one of the nation’s most extreme shutdowns. How's it working out?

Unemployment rate as of 25 April:

SD: 6.1% MN: 15.5%

Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 population:

SD: 3.3 MN: 8.8

So Minnesota's unemployment rate and Covid-19 death rate are both over 2.5x higher than South Dakota's.

I don't know what to make of these numbers.
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Add this fact to those numbers and you wonder.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-...hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

 

[Brians356]

Add this fact to those numbers and you wonder.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/ny-...hospitalizations-are-people-staying-home.html

Yes, that new story is odd. It suggests the "new" infected people number about 1000. I wonder how they know they haven't been leaving the home much. Is that based of the hospital staff simply asking them a few questions? People may not be answering very truthfully. But maybe they've been tracking their cell phones, I gather there's been some of that going on in NYC.

PS Maybe some popular pizza delivery has been spreading the virus to housebound people. It's not such a crazy notion.
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[INTJ]

Yes, that new story is odd. It suggests the "new" infected people number about 1000. I wonder how they know they haven't been leaving the home much. Is that based of the hospital staff simply asking them a few questions? People may not be answering very truthfully. But maybe they've been tracking their cell phones, I gather there's been some of that going on in NYC.

PS Maybe some popular pizza delivery has been spreading the virus to housebound people. It's not such a crazy notion.
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Or maybe MANY more people have been infected with mild to no symptoms than originally thought, and staying inside where there is minimal air exchange is a bad idea......

 

[Brians356]

Or maybe MANY more people have been infected with mild to no symptoms than originally thought, and staying inside where there is minimal air exchange is a bad idea......

We know the actual exposure is far wider than symptoms suggest, based on available serum antibody testing. But these are people with severe enough symptoms to be hospitalized, yet they claim they have been self-isolating.
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[INTJ]

We know the actual exposure is far wider than symptoms suggest, based on available serum antibody testing. But these are people with severe enough symptoms to be hospitalized, yet they claim they have been self-isolating.
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Perhaps the started with mild symptoms and they got worse by breathing recycled inside air. One day we'll know.....

 

[INTJ]

Looks like initial analysis based on actual data is starting.....

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11568244/uk-coronavirus-lockdown-futile-hasnt-saved-lives/

 

[ronsatspokane]

We know the actual exposure is far wider than symptoms suggest, based on available serum antibody testing. But these are people with severe enough symptoms to be hospitalized, yet they claim they have been self-isolating.
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Add to that the fact that it appears the virus started showing up in Europe and parts of the US back in December then go back to page 1 of this thread and look at the chart SGK posted. That chart was the reference point the politicians and media were using to tell the story. Wonder how the new data impacts that chart... That's a rhetorical question.

 

[INTJ]

Neil Ferguson should NOT have been listened too:

https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/...ns-booty-call-tells-us-about-modern-politics/

"And Ferguson has form when it comes to the worst-case ideology that is so obsessed with being risk-averse that it causes whole new problems of its own. In 2005 he said up to 200million people could die from bird flu – the final global death toll between the years 2003 and 2009 was 292. In 2009, the UK government based its ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ for the impact of swine flu in Britain on Ferguson’s models, saying around 65,000 people could die. In the end just 457 people died. In 2001 Imperial modelling on foot-and-mouth disease shaped government policy, which was to cull six million sheep, cattle and pigs. Later, an expert in veterinary epidemiology said that modelling was ‘seriously flawed’."

 

[Brians356]

... go back to page 1 of this thread and look at the chart SGK posted. That chart was the reference point the politicians and media were using to tell the story. Wonder how the new data impacts that chart... That's a rhetorical question.

I wouldn't expect an answer.
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[Brians356]

More on Minnesota:

Deaths in nursing homes (80% of total) plus deaths with comorbidities together comprise 99.2% of all Covid-19 deaths in Minnesota. The median age of decedents is 83 years.
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[INTJ]

So far, it seems Florida did it right and New York did it wrong.

 

[SGK]

Very different places. Different population density and population movement dynamics. Miami has, for example, next to no public transportation. In contrast, you can't live in Manhattan without using it. And clearly they had very different shocks to deal with.

BTW the Sun newspaper is better known for its topless pg 3 girls than the quality of its reporting...

EDIT: as for antibody testing, Miami-Dade and Broward county combined have conducted swab tests equivalent to a mere 3.5% of population. Those are static tests with negative results only valid as at the time of the test. Just under 12% tested positive. (I had to pass by one of the testing stations (Marlins Park) the day before yesterday. Traffic for a drive-through test was queued up for miles.)

I don't think it's even possible to get an antibody test even if you were prepared to pay for one. The UK has yet to source reliable antibody testing equipment. So I haven't heard of a lot of reliable data regarding population infection ratios. Guesstimates for the UK are still sub 10%. Even Sweden's state epidemiologist, where they've largely 'let her rip' speculates that the most populous cities of Sweden such as Stockholm will only achieve 40% immunity by the end of May.

Judging from friends in the UK who have had this virus - most were absolutely flattened and bed-ridden for between 3 and 5 weeks - it's an extraordinarily optimistic over 40-year old who thinks they've had COVID-19 without suffering significantly noticeable symptoms. 76.8% of respondents in this forum's demographic profile poll were 50 and over; 49% 60 and over...

 

[Laurie]

BTW the Sun newspaper is better known for its topless pg 3 girls than the quality of its reporting...

My immediate thought too on seeing the link. The SUN isn't one's usual first call to obtain hard facts and reasoned assessments on complex subjects even if it is a master of the snappy (and often bad taste) headline like the notorious 'GOTCHA' when the British nuclear attack submarine HMS Conqueror sank the Argentinian cruiser ARA General Belgrano at the start of the Falklands War.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?sou...BAgKEAE&biw=1240&bih=622#imgrc=0QaqnT2rJaBikM

.... or the equally well known 'Up Yours Delors', to a French politician who was then President of the EU Commission.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/dullhunk/437565574

Let's just say that if the Sun were an AccurateShooter Forum member @Forum Boss would likely have banned it by now for serial offensiveness to others!