COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

The UK, well ahead of the US in the timeline of this pandemic, is expected to announce on Thursday an extension of the nationwide lockdown for a further three weeks.

 

[SGK]

BTW for those with access to it there is a very good article discussing hydroxychloroquine and COVID 19 in today's FT titled: "Trump's malaria drug hope: 'game changer' or dangerous gamble?" It discusses a range of things including the caution of scientists, potential side effects, the fact that the medical journal which published the study linked to and referenced by Jim a couple of times has now said it did not meet its standards, the withdrawal of its use in Sweden due to side effects, the less cautious use of it in India etc. Well worth a read.

 

[Brians356]

I don't think this virus is any kind of conspiracy, but if you don't think some people are gonna make a crap ton of money from it your kidding yourself. Bezos & Amazon are doing good with lots of sheeple scared to go to the stores. Oh! Does he own some media outlets? Big Pharma probably come out ok when they make people believe they need "this years" Covid shot year in and year out. It would be nice to believe this is all about saving lives but I'm skepical.

Lots of companies are doing well from this emergency. That's why I've owned stock in many of them for long enough I've been able to retire. Unless a lot of companies do well through thick and thin, we have no economy or society worth living in.
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[ronsatspokane]

Hey, I'm not saying it doesn't have a lot of promise. Quite the opposite. I'm sure if there is plenty of high quality research around the qualified folk at the FDA will complete their work tout suite. Let that work be done and if all good get production scaled up. But don't shoot from the hip. In the same way people like to search for scapegoats ("it's a weaponized virus") people like to grasp at potential cures. Let's just make sure the elixir is thoroughly and properly tested in a timeframe in keeping with the need.

PS: the French 'study' you linked to, while showing a lot of promise, has been broadly criticized for its lack of scientific efficacy.

I think you need to read a bit about the reasoning behind the recommendation. Far from shooting from the hip the medical professionals decided to use it due to the properties of the virus and how the medication acts to block the virus at the cellular level. It was medical professionals who understood both the properties of the virus and the chemical mechanisms of the two drugs in question who decided that they would be a likely candidate for off label use. The first study from France indicated that indeed, it does appear to work. Other studies ongoing to find out how effective. The trouble is that the folks who are against using the medications in spite of promising applications for off label use being identified by medical professionals are essentially taking on the role of anti-vaxxers. The comical thing being that those folks usually make fun of the anti-vaxxers.

 

[Brians356]

BTW for those with access to it there is a very good article discussing hydroxychloroquine and COVID 19 in today's FT titled: "Trump's malaria drug hope: 'game changer' or dangerous gamble?" It discusses a range of things including the caution of scientists, potential side effects, the fact that the medical journal which published the study linked to and referenced by Jim a couple of times has now said it did not meet its standards, the withdrawal of its use in Sweden due to side effects, the less cautious use of it in India etc. Well worth a read.

John Hinderaker posted this today:

The FDA has approved chloroquine as a COVID-19 treatment. Did it do so despite a “lack of scientific evidence?” In fact, there is abundant evidence from many international sources supporting the efficacy of chloroquine in various forms and in combination with several other drugs. To take just one example among many, a survey of more than 6,000 international physicians found that Hydroxychloroquine was the treatment deemed effective by the largest number, 37%. So the ... oft-repeated “without evidence” mantra is absurd.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/another-dishonest-smear-by-the-washington-post.php
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[ronsatspokane]

BTW for those with access to it there is a very good article discussing hydroxychloroquine and COVID 19 in today's FT titled: "Trump's malaria drug hope: 'game changer' or dangerous gamble?" It discusses a range of things including the caution of scientists, potential side effects, the fact that the medical journal which published the study linked to and referenced by Jim a couple of times has now said it did not meet its standards, the withdrawal of its use in Sweden due to side effects, the less cautious use of it in India etc. Well worth a read.

But most of all because Trump. It's working in France, Spain, the US and China. If the Swedes want to kill their population off, let them.

 

[JimT]

BTW for those with access to it there is a very good article discussing hydroxychloroquine and COVID 19 in today's FT titled: "Trump's malaria drug hope: 'game changer' or dangerous gamble?" It discusses a range of things including the caution of scientists, potential side effects, the fact that the medical journal which published the study linked to and referenced by Jim a couple of times has now said it did not meet its standards, the withdrawal of its use in Sweden due to side effects, the less cautious use of it in India etc. Well worth a read.

Here’s the link:

https://www.ft.com/content/7c78710d-85ed-4cf0-9b03-e7ec8ca86d9f

There will not be a “study” of any drug being used to treat this virus that meets accepted standards until the danger has long subsided. When people are dying, like they are currently, you use the best data you can to try to save their lives. Lots of experiments going on without the benefit of reading a study that is scientifically sound and took 3 years to write!

If Sweden wants to not use this drug even though the Mayo Clinic estimates only 10 percent of people are susceptible to the heart complications that is a poorly rationalized decision. The possibility of depression and anxiety probably is not a concern for the sedated patient on a ventilator, but it sure sounds good.

It’s unfortunate that the drugs top salesman is a narcissistic-ego-maniac, but that isn’t a reason to downplay the evidence that the drug in concert with an antibiotic appears to be working in many cases.

 

[SGK]

Anecdotal evidence supports the need for further investigation. That's it so far. It's a gamble without further study. Don't kid yourself otherwise. (Maybe we should try it with seasonal 'flu since this virus isn't as bad as that?)

BTW the FDA regularly provides updates via press announcements all of which can be found here:

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements

 

[Brians356]

Anecdotal evidence supports the need for further investigation. That's it so far.

Study published in peer-reviewed Virology Journal (2005, Martin J Vincent, Eric Bergeron, [...], and Stuart T Nichol):

"... chloroquine has strong antiviral effects on SARS-CoV infection of primate cells. These inhibitory effects are observed when the cells are treated with the drug either before or after exposure to the virus, suggesting both prophylactic and therapeutic advantage. ... Chloroquine is effective in preventing the spread of SARS CoV in cell culture. Favorable inhibition of virus spread was observed when the cells were either treated with chloroquine prior to or after SARS CoV infection. In addition, the indirect immunofluorescence assay described herein represents a simple and rapid method for screening SARS-CoV antiviral compounds."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1232869/
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[JimT]

Anecdotal evidence supports the need for further investigation. That's it so far. It's a gamble without further study. Don't kid yourself otherwise. (Maybe we should try it with seasonal 'flu since this virus isn't as bad as that?)

BTW the FDA regularly provides updates via press announcements all of which can be found here:

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-newsroom/press-announcements

Thanks for the link! Very informative! Take these two links for example:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cn...itics/trump-sanitize-medical-masks/index.html

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pre...-use-authorization-decontaminate-millions-n95

 

[SGK]

I don't see anything approving the use of hydroxychloroquine. But I'm sure they, and others, are on the case. They should be allowed to do their work in the proper way. The last thing we need is to shoot from the hip. After all, COVID 19 has caused less deaths than the seasonal 'flu, right?

(well at least less in 7 of the last 9 'flu seasons.... so far)

Let's all just have a huge group hug and go back to work. We could even have a big huge game of Ring o' Ring of Roses and see who falls down.

 

[JimT]

Another sign the media is hyping the negative in a disingenuous way. Reuters used to be a Grade A news agency and this shows it’s fallen precipitously!!!

https://news.trust.org/item/20200415213634-wt4o0

 

[SGK]

Where's the hype in that article?

 

[JimT]

Where's the hype in that article?

What was the death toll on Tuesday? What was the death toll on Wednesday? What is the day to day increase in percentage terms? How many days until deaths double?

Is any of that good news as compared to a week ago?

 

[Brians356]

Where's the hype in that article?

Anyone paying attention knows (and Cuomo explained it) that NYC abruptly liberalized their method of classifying "Covid-19 deaths" three days ago, thereby adding several thousand which previously would not have counted. As in "climate science" [sic] the data were "adjusted".

"before now, the city counted deaths where the person had tested positive for COVID-19." Forbes

Now they're adding the "presumed" Covid-19 deaths. The problem with that is that only a small fraction of people with symptoms test positive!

Fake news.
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[SGK]

Fake news.
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They're conforming to the guidance provided by the CDC.

From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

April 14

New York City today has reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source]. We will add these to the New York State total as soon as it is determined whether the historical distribution can be obtained

April 15

New York Governor Cuomo: "we will begin reporting all categories of fatalities pursuant to new CDC guidelines and are contacting facilities to get updated numbers" There may be additional people who died that have not been counted because not in a hospital

Note where the quotes begin and end.

Read also, including the links therein to the CDC:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

In my opinion, time will show the 3800 to be rounding error.

(well at least less in 7 of the last 9 'flu seasons.... so far)

Update: 6 of the last 9

Is any of that good news as compared to a week ago?

Ah. I forgot. News can only be good news. Factual information that is bad must not be reported as it will be called 'hype'! The harsh reality, unless you live in the sticks as a hermit, is that the news around COVID is kind of bad. It does really suck. A friend of mine lost his grandfather to it the other day.

But....here's some good news for you. Worldmeters tracks the results of case outcomes - those cases which have been tracked and are no longer active. The percentage 'recovered' vs the percentage 'deaths' improved over the last couple of days from 60:40 (in recovered's favor) to 63:37. Success! Let's celebrate as that ratio continues to move in recovered's favor as, quite likely, earlier confirmed cases are from those very ill and most likely to die whereas the broadening of testing will uncover those with milder and less-terminal symptoms.

 

[JimT]

They're conforming to the guidance provided by the CDC.

From https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

April 14



April 15

Note where the quotes begin and end.

Read also, including the links therein to the CDC:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

In my opinion, time will show the 3800 to be rounding error.



Update: 6 of the last 9




Ah. I forgot. News can only be good news. Factual information that is bad must not be reported as it will be called 'hype'! The harsh reality, unless you live in the sticks as a hermit, is that the news around COVID is kind of bad. It does really suck. A friend of mine lost his grandfather to it the other day.

But....here's some good news for you. Worldmeters tracks the results of case outcomes - those cases which have been tracked and are no longer active. The percentage 'recovered' vs the percentage 'deaths' improved over the last couple of days from 60:40 (in recovered's favor) to 63:37. Success! Let's celebrate as that ratio continues to move in recovered's favor as, quite likely, earlier confirmed cases are from those very ill and most likely to die whereas the broadening of testing will uncover those with milder and less-terminal symptoms.

Why don’t you just answer my question?? I would have thought an increase of only 7 deaths (an increase of only 3 tenths of 1 percent) from Tuesday to Wednesday would be cheered as a positive sign, but I guess you don’t see it that way. How long again till deaths double on a daily basis??????????!

That ratio is so useless for so many reasons!!

I also noted on Worldmeters that the logarithmic graphs provided there look very different than the ones provided earlier in this thread.

 

[pintopete]

Are any of you that debate these things endlessly in New York, or is this all conjecture and assumption from afar?

Come see first hand!

 

[SGK]

How long again till deaths double on a daily basis??????????!

Dunno. Maybe a couple of weeks. Certainly not long enough for my liking. How about you?

I do believe that a lot more people will die and that it's very unfortunate. And for a very great proportion of the population life is not going to resemble 'normal' for many months and quite likely at least a year or more.



As an addendum to the post above. Always good to read the footnotes.

NOTE: Changes in New York State Data following the new CDC guidelines on "Case" and "Death" definition

Note on Michigan death data: MDHHS staff has put in place, a weekly review death certificate data maintained in Vital Records reporting systems. As a part of this process, records that identify COVID-19 infection as a contributing factor to death are compared against all laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Michigan Disease Surveillance System (MDSS). If a death certificate is matched to a confirmed COVID-19 case and that record in the MDSS does not indicate a death, the MDSS record is updated to indicate the death and the appropriate local health department is notified. These matched deaths are then included with mortality information posted to the Michigan Coronavirus website. As a result of this week’s assessment, today’s data includes 65 additional deaths that have been identified through this methodology. [source]

New York City retracted 145 deaths previously reported, on April 15, to have taken place in Brooklyn and Manhattann [source] [source]

 

[JimT]

More good news!

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16...uggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-...owing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

and the bad news!!!!

https://news.trust.org/item/20200416171058-yycqh

In my state we have had over 350 deaths and not one of them has been under the age of 20, while over 77% of the deaths have been over the age of 70 and 51% over the age of 80.