COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[Brians356]

Hasn't Florida tripled their testing? ...
Testing 100,000 with 2,000 positives against testing 10,000 and 200 positives.

Total Tests vs Cumulative Positivity.


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[Brians356]

They've had to, yes - if only as a result of track 'n trace. (More positives means more people you have to track 'n trace.) For most of June the 7 day average of number of tests was relatively constant at around 35k per day. That's why the positivity ratio was so alarming. It rose from about 3% or so in early June to above 18% last week. When the ratio reached 16% testing was expanded. Over the last 4 days the positivity ratio has fallen to 11/12% which is still more than double the desired limit of 5%. So it's not just a case of testing more and finding proportionally the same.

Positivity can be looked at different ways. Suppose tests are many, positivity is very high, but the large majority of new positives are symptom free. That would suggest the virus is very widespread, but it isn't a killing machine, and that herd immunity is around the corner.
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[1911nut]

Positivity can be looked at different ways. Suppose tests are many, positivity is very high, but the large majority of new positives are symptom free. That would suggest the virus is very widespread, but it isn't a killing machine, and that herd immunity is around the corner.
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what do you expect the body count will be when we get to herd immunity?

 

[SGK]

Positivity can be looked at different ways. Suppose tests are many, positivity is very high, but the large majority of new positives are symptom free. That would suggest the virus is very widespread, but it isn't a killing machine, and that herd immunity is around the corner.
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Indeed and that's why the rate of hospitalization is important



Now's not the time to get this in Florida and find yourself in need of hospital care.

 

[SGK]

Florida serology testing data is only updated weekly and testing remains relatively limited. But only 4% of those tested have had positive results. 96% of hopefuls thinking they'd had it remain disappointed...

 

[Highpower-FClass]

Fatality rates for Florida and Texas.

Florida fatality rates through 7/12. Black line is 7 day moving average.


Texas fatality rates through 7/13 - White line is 7 day moving average.



Edit: Updated Texas chart to also show daily fatality count

 

[Brians356]

what do you expect the body count will be when we get to herd immunity?

I don't have a clue. Why do you want to know?

If my "suppose" is valid and it's not a killing machine going forward, i.e. death rates are low, then what does the ultimate Covid-19 body count mean? Millions die every year in the US from disease, much of it preventable.
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[Brians356]

Fatality rates for Florida and Texas.

Florida fatality rates through 7/12. Black line is 7 day moving average.
View attachment 1189967

Texas fatality rates through 7/13 - White line is 7 day moving average.

View attachment 1189970

Edit: Updated Texas chart to also show daily fatality count

Deaths per Day (7-day moving average):

New York (Red), Texas (Green), Florida (Yellow), US-NE (Blue)


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[rwj]

Deaths per Day (7-day moving average):

New York (Red), Texas (Green), Florida (Yellow), US-NE (Blue)

View attachment 1189975
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Any notions why the death rate is so low in Florida and Texas?

 

[SGK]

time - time to learn and time delay until death

 

[Highpower-FClass]

Yes, both Texas and Florida fatality rates are dwarfed by what New York went through.

Here is a chart showing the 7 day moving averages for New York and Texas (New York blue line, Texas white line). I do not have the raw data for Florida but from other charts it looks like Florida and Texas have been tracking fairly closely.

I think the key for Texas (and Florida, Arizona etc.) is to stay within the ICU capacities. As long as that is the case, people with severe symptoms will at least get as good care as can be had, which should improve recovery outcomes. If it gets to where the number of people requiring ICU care exceeds the number of ICU beds it seems likely fatality rates would increase further. So far Texas has spare ICU surge capacity.

 

[Brians356]

Any notions why the death rate is so low in Florida and Texas?

Death rate needs to be normalized for population to visualize. As to why, one could argue NY and NJ (and CT, MA) were swamped early on, before more effective treatments were discovered. But there was also obvious bungling on the part of governors and mayors in how nursing homes and public transportation were handled. And obviously pure urban population density.

Total Covid-19 deaths per 1M people:

 

[SGK]

Florida (and Texas) missed the starting gun by 3 months. It's off now though...

Lag FL and TX by 3 months in your graphic.

I'm sure a lot has been learnt in that time and so the rate of death ought to be lower but it isn't right to compare the graphs with the same starting point.

 

[Brians356]

Florida (and Texas) missed the starting gun by 3 months. It's off now though...

Lag FL and TX by 3 months in your graphic.

I'm sure a lot has been learnt in that time and so the rate of death ought to be lower but it isn't right to compare the graphs with the same starting point.

You're right, of course, but tell me if you think it really changes much in this case. (Each state now starts at the threshold of 1 death / 1M people.)

 

[Brians356]

I could wait until Friday to spring this on y'all, but by then you might have seen it already. See my logic there? [sigh] Ok, there's always one. It's a Friday Funny? Hel-loooo!!!

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/07/j-p-sears-for-surgeon-general.php
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[ronsatspokane]

Speaking of shooting clays, in the UK I did a lot of 'simulated game' clay shooting as practice for the real thing. It was fantastic. Basically remotely activated traps set up in woodland with 'birds' flying through or above the trees and walkways between each station. High driven, crossing, away, grouse in open land, you name it. (Bisley alone has two fantastic grounds within the camp.) Seems impossible to find here in South Florida (by comparison I find 'skeet/trap' courses so boring) and so my shotguns have laid idle. Surprisingly, shooting and stalking (other than swatting baited hog) was so much more accessible living in central London.

What you describe is what is called Sporting Clays here. The golf of shotgun sports. They come in from all different angles. Over your head from behind, at you, side ways, straight up in the air and even rabbits that roll along the ground all at varying distances and angles. Depending on whether it is Sporting or Super sporting you have two to three presentations at each station with 6 to 8 shots at them at each station. Most courses have 15 to over 20 stations and many of the courses are setup different each time you visit. If you value your self esteem, don't go the day after a registered shoot, they are very tough. Springs wound tight for high speed and launching at nearer and much further distances. Often in the same station. Do a search on Sporting Clays Florida. Seems that there are a number of courses in your area. Probably more than actually show up in the search.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Spirit Lake, about 30 miles north of Coeur d'Alene.

A moose got mad at me once after taking a photo of her and her calf in my yard. Had to take off running. It's interesting living up here. LOL

Had a cow and a calf hanging out on my property for about a month a couple of years back. Eating not so ripe apples off the trees. When they took a dump after eating those apples it was over foot in diameter and very liquid. Had to watch where you stepped. Not just the poo but you'd come face to face with here if you weren't looking.

 

[SGK]

You're right, of course, but tell me if you think it really changes much in this case. (Each state now starts at the threshold of 1 death / 1M people.)

Lag Florida so that the surge in confirmed cases aligns with the surge in NY. Then look at the cumulative death chart so-aligned. FL's surge didn't start until, expectedly, a couple of weeks after the lock-down ended. Everything before then was a false start.

 

[SGK]

What you describe is what is called Sporting Clays here. The golf of shotgun sports.

Ah I will. I've been to the facility at Vero Beach but that's not at all the same thing - a bunch of skeet courses. And their rifle range is limited to one position at 200 yards. The Trail Glades shooting range has clays but again it's not the same thing. In the UK there is a "sporting" discipline that is run on a skeet course but what you describe is much closer to what I'm talking about. Typically you would walk to a station and select the "bird" you want presented (singles, pairs, various angles ie there are several traps per station). Clays can then come as doubles, "on rapport" or singles on demand etc.

(BTW if you are ever in the UK around London and have a few spare bob to spend, pop out to the Holland & Holland shooting ground to try both their sporting clay grounds and their indoor shooting cinema. The latter allows life-like practice with full power rifle targeting a variety of disciplines including running boar. Very cool.)

 

[afret]

There's something fishy going on here.

https://therightscoop.com/fox-35-ha...ion-reporting-in-florida-that-skew-it-higher/