COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[Dgd6mm]

Covid-19 has just hit my family, my 84 year old mother. Who should we believe, the scientists or Trump?

I'm sorry to hear this about your Mother. I hope she doesn't have any underlying ailments. I'll be praying for her.

Don Dunlap

 

[SGK]

Good research report out yesterday from Matt Harrison, Morgan Stanley's biotech analyst titled
"COVID-19: Increasing Conviction Multiple Vaccine Candidates Will Have Pivotal Data Before YE20"


Key takeaways:

• While a pre-election result is possible, we see early-to-mid November as our base case for PhIII data.

• We expect Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech and AztraZeneca all to start US PhIII trials before the end of the summer: Each of the PhIII vaccine studies are expected to enroll approximately 30,000 individuals over the course of about 1-1.5 months.
  
  
• Based upon recent FDA guidance on the requirements for COVID-19 vaccine licensure in the US, [MS] have run detailed statistical simulations of the clinical bar necessary for efficacy and timeline to data. [MS] conclude that at least 55% vaccine efficacy (i.e., the vaccine prevents 55% of symptomatic infections) is the minimum bar for approval.
  
  
• Pre-election data is possible, but our base case is mid-November: Pfizer has stated that it aspires to finish enrolling its study by the end of August or early September, have data by the end of September and file in October.
  
  
• However, [MS] view this as the earliest possible time point for data and one that may not be reached. [MS's] base case assumes the studies are designed to demonstrate underlying vaccine efficacy of approximately 65% and will require about 100 events at the interim analysis which we believe could occur in early- to-mid November.
  
  
• Earlier data increases [MS] economists' conviction in a V-shaped recovery:

• [MS] believe clarity on a vaccine, especially in early Fall, will allow investors to "look through" any negative headlines associated with bumps in the economic recovery due to the increasing spread of the virus and increases our conviction that DM economies will recover to pre-COVID levels by YE2021.
  
  
• Potential Caveat. Importantly, the companies may choose a higher number of events (e.g., >100) than we expect as the threshold to trigger the primary analysis at interim for more robust power. Or, the efficacy of vaccine may be higher than expected (e.g., >80%) so that the accrual of total events turns out to be slower than expected. In either case, the initial readout could be delayed. However, we may uncover these scenarios by calculating the expected number of events based on the observed incidence rate around clinical sites. If the calculation suggests incidence is large enough, the delay itself signals a potential favorable outcome of the trial.

So they continue to believe we're on-track for summer/fall next year vaccine availability.

Of course you should read the entire report and not just the excerpts I have provided above. Contact your investment advisor.

And of course if you're a leftist Marxist you will dismiss such views. Personally I prefer to invest for my own gain and such sage input is valuable.

 

[SGK]

Being a d--k is trying to create fear and panic to promote a political agenda, suppressing opposing information and viewpoints, and canceling people you disagree with.

I agree although I'm not sure you realize who you have just described. But let's stay on track and get back to COVID.

Florida doesn't give Covid-19 numbers. Is this a way to make the numbers lower?

FDOH publishes info daily here:

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov

 

[SGK]

For perspective, here is data for the US from 2017.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

• Number of deaths: 2,813,503
• Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population
• Life expectancy: 78.6 years
• Infant Mortality rate: 5.79 deaths per 1,000 live births

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

It is somewhat fascinating to read though the detail behind this summary. Table I-12 here https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09_tables-508.pdf

Who would have thought, for example, that 38% of Accidents (64,795 deaths) would be from "Accidental poisoning and exposure to noxious substances (X40–X49)"; far more than deaths from motor vehicle accidents.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Covid-19 has just hit my family, my 84 year old mother. Who should we believe, the scientists or Trump?

Sorry to hear that. The answer to your question is obvious: None of the above. Scientists at WHO told us that the virus is not transmissible between humans as humans were traveling around the world spreading it. Scientists told us that mask did not help and now 5 months into this, masks are becoming mandatory. The only constant in the message from science has been a changing message. The only person you can believe is you. Most people know what the threat vectors are and they need to mitigate their risks as best they can, if they can.

So the questions beg to be asked, who did your mother believe and how did she become infected?

 

[jimcasey01]

%QUOTE="SGK, post: 37834701, member: 1307828"]I agree although I'm not sure you realize who you have just described. But let's stay on track and get back to COVID.



FDOH publishes info daily here:

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov[/QUOTE]

FDOH reports numbers from state run labs, not private labs, as I understand. Private labs account for 90% of the testing while state run labs account for the other 10%. This means that FDOH numbers are way off.

 

[INTJ]

I agree although I'm not sure you realize who you have just described. But let's stay on track and get back to COVID.



FDOH publishes info daily here:

https://floridahealthcovid19.gov

I have described elements of the progressive movement. The church ladies were never that oppressive.....

 

[SGK]

FDOH reports numbers from state run labs, not private labs, as I understand. Private labs account for 90% of the testing while state run labs account for the other 10%. This means that FDOH numbers are way off.

If you go to the link I provided and then scroll down to the link for "Case, monitoring and PUI information on the latest COVID-19", click on See State Report. In that report, towards the bottom you will see detail on all the labs providing test data for statewide consolidation. There are hundreds of them.

 

[jimcasey01]

If you go to the link I provided and then scroll down to the link for "Case, monitoring and PUI information on the latest COVID-19", click on See State Report. In that report, towards the bottom you will see detail on all the labs providing test data for statewide consolidation. There are hundreds of them.

Thank you very much for the information. I obviously misspoke.

 

[Brians356]

I agree although I'm not sure you realize who you have just described.

I see you working. Nice try, but he-who-must-not-be-named has if anything tried to quash virus panic, and is 180 degs opposite of "cancel culture" which is 100% leftist (to charitably avoid the 'M' word).
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[Brians356]

Good research report out yesterday from Matt Harrison, Morgan Stanley's biotech analyst titled
"COVID-19: Increasing Conviction Multiple Vaccine Candidates Will Have Pivotal Data Before YE20"


Key takeaways:

• While a pre-election result is possible, we see early-to-mid November as our base case for PhIII data.

• We expect Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech and AztraZeneca all to start US PhIII trials before the end of the summer: Each of the PhIII vaccine studies are expected to enroll approximately 30,000 individuals over the course of about 1-1.5 months.
  
  
• Based upon recent FDA guidance on the requirements for COVID-19 vaccine licensure in the US, [MS] have run detailed statistical simulations of the clinical bar necessary for efficacy and timeline to data. [MS] conclude that at least 55% vaccine efficacy (i.e., the vaccine prevents 55% of symptomatic infections) is the minimum bar for approval.
  
  
• Pre-election data is possible, but our base case is mid-November: Pfizer has stated that it aspires to finish enrolling its study by the end of August or early September, have data by the end of September and file in October.
  
  
• However, [MS] view this as the earliest possible time point for data and one that may not be reached. [MS's] base case assumes the studies are designed to demonstrate underlying vaccine efficacy of approximately 65% and will require about 100 events at the interim analysis which we believe could occur in early- to-mid November.
  
  
• Earlier data increases [MS] economists' conviction in a V-shaped recovery:

• [MS] believe clarity on a vaccine, especially in early Fall, will allow investors to "look through" any negative headlines associated with bumps in the economic recovery due to the increasing spread of the virus and increases our conviction that DM economies will recover to pre-COVID levels by YE2021.
  
  
• Potential Caveat. Importantly, the companies may choose a higher number of events (e.g., >100) than we expect as the threshold to trigger the primary analysis at interim for more robust power. Or, the efficacy of vaccine may be higher than expected (e.g., >80%) so that the accrual of total events turns out to be slower than expected. In either case, the initial readout could be delayed. However, we may uncover these scenarios by calculating the expected number of events based on the observed incidence rate around clinical sites. If the calculation suggests incidence is large enough, the delay itself signals a potential favorable outcome of the trial.

So they continue to believe we're on-track for summer/fall next year vaccine availability.

Of course you should read the entire report and not just the excerpts I have provided above. Contact your investment advisor.

And of course if you're a leftist Marxist you will dismiss such views. Personally I prefer to invest for my own gain and such sage input is valuable.

Here's a somewhat less optimistic but still hopeful investment analysis of vaccines and anti-viral treatments:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...k-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
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[INTJ]

https://justthenews.com/politics-po...e-losing-its-epidemic-status-us-according-cdc

https://justthenews.com/politics-po...n-hit-100000-cases-day-evidence-suggests-were

 

[Brians356]

https://justthenews.com/politics-po...e-losing-its-epidemic-status-us-according-cdc

https://justthenews.com/politics-po...n-hit-100000-cases-day-evidence-suggests-were

Uh, yeah.

This excerpt is shattering (emphasis added):

During a news call last month, [CDC Director Robert] Redfield estimated that — based on the evidence of ongoing serology tests, which look for antibodies indicating past infection from COVID-19 — the CDC's "best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections." If those estimates drawn from serology studies are correct, that would place the number of coronavirus infections in the country at about 30,000,000. In addition to sending the death rate of the disease plummeting, that number would also indicate that the U.S. has for some time been adding daily infections greatly exceeding those of Fauci's worst estimates.
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[INTJ]

Uh, yeah.

This excerpt is shattering (emphasis added):

During a news call last month, [CDC Director Robert] Redfield estimated that — based on the evidence of ongoing serology tests, which look for antibodies indicating past infection from COVID-19 — the CDC's "best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections." If those estimates drawn from serology studies are correct, that would place the number of coronavirus infections in the country at about 30,000,000. In addition to sending the death rate of the disease plummeting, that number would also indicate that the U.S. has for some time been adding daily infections greatly exceeding those of Fauci's worst estimates.
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Add to that the estimate that twice as many people have immunity to COVID via T-Cell as have antibodies.

 

[Laurie]

Uh, yeah.

This excerpt is shattering (emphasis added):

During a news call last month, [CDC Director Robert] Redfield estimated that — based on the evidence of ongoing serology tests, which look for antibodies indicating past infection from COVID-19 — the CDC's "best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections." If those estimates drawn from serology studies are correct, that would place the number of coronavirus infections in the country at about 30,000,000. In addition to sending the death rate of the disease plummeting, that number would also indicate that the U.S. has for some time been adding daily infections greatly exceeding those of Fauci's worst estimates.
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Same results recently published for the UK too.

 

[SGK]

Add to that the estimate that twice as many people have immunity to COVID via T-Cell as have antibodies.

I think you need to re-read the summary of that study, particularly the authors' caveats.

 

[INTJ]

Does anyone else on this thread become fatigued with those who use insults and innuendo in lieu of critical thinking and logic?

This really isn't anything new as it's the way of forums, but it's become very tiring on this particular thread.

 

[Brians356]

Does anyone else on this thread become fatigued with those who use insults and innuendo in lieu of critical thinking and logic?

This really isn't anything new as it's the way of forums, but it's become very tiring on this particular thread.

I'm looking for an example pertaining to you in particular, but nothing jumps out to my jaded eyes. This thread seems pretty tame IMHO, all things considered.
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[INTJ]

I'm looking for an example pertaining to you in particular, but nothing jumps out to my jaded eyes. This thread seems pretty tame IMHO, all things considered.
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There is a certain individual on this thread who frequently chooses to question one's thinking vs logically arguing his point. I refuse to discuss and debate when someone resorts to those tactics.

 

[Brians356]

There were aspersions cast on the essay I recently posted here from an allergist in CO regarding outdoor transmission. Today I received personal advice from my physician, who is associated with a "concierge" medical practice called MDVIP of which I am a client. (That means I'm paying good money for said advice.) I quote the portion related to outdoor activity:

Indoors vs. Outdoors
There is growing consensus among experts (including the CDC) that being outside is safer than being inside. This bodes well if you want to play golf, walk your dog in a park or even go to the beach or the mountains. Why do scientists consider outdoors safer? There's more air to dilute coronavirus, meaning your exposure is less. Second, there's usually more space and it's easier to maintain six feet of distance.

In fact, in a Chinese study of 7,324 coronavirus cases, only one traced back to an outdoor encounter. But that doesn't mean the risk is zero. Crowded outdoor spaces carry risk as do long conversations with other people in close quarters.

Since baseball stadiums are closed, and I don't choose to participate in weekend warrior contact sports like flag football, soccer, or rugby, my task of avoiding crowded outdoor spaces is a simple one.
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