COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[ronsatspokane]

Yup, that may well be true - especially of the Italians if you're female, have a nice bottom and travel standing on crush-loaded public transport. (A comely lady friend who travelled the length and breadth of Italy by train a good few years back said she was black and blue after some journeys, she was 'pinched' so often ........ of course, political correctness may have stopped this practice now, but if not it's another custom that Covid has stopped in its tracks!)

The first time I was in Italy, maybe 25 years ago, my wife and I were walking across the Ponte Vecchio in Flourence. We popped into one of the shops on the bridge. I was looking at something and didn't notice that my wife left the shop. I ask the sales lady if she saw where my wife went. She said: Not to worry, is Italy, we have lots of women.

 

[Brians356]

I was looking at something and didn't notice that my wife left the shop. I ask the sales lady if she saw where my wife went. She said: Not to worry, is Italy, we have lots of women.

They have lots of men as well. Lotharios, the lot of 'em. "I wid not let them near my money, my malt, or my maidservant."
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[Toby Bradshaw]

Philosophically speaking, Homosapians

Homo sapiens ("wise man")

During the annual migration of the Water Buffalo the herd comes to a river.

Blue wildebeest. They look like this cull cow that I shot in Namibia. They taste great in stroganoff.

As they cross, alligators take a few.

Crocodiles. Alligators only live in the Americas and China. Here's a croc on the Zambezi in Zimbabwe.



And now back to your regularly scheduled debate.

P.S. For those keeping score, the seasonal flu has killed an average of 38K Americans per year over the past decade, with a standard deviation of 15K. With COVID-19 we're already >4 standard deviations past the mean for seasonal flu (i.e., 99.9% confidence that COVID-19 is not "like the seasonal flu".) We still have 8 months to go before COVID-19 has its first birthday in the U.S., after killing ~100K Americans in just April and May.

 

[Brians356]

P.S. For those keeping score, the seasonal flu has killed an average of 38K Americans per year over the past decade, with a standard deviation of 15K.

Only the past decade again? I'll give you this is the absolute worst pandemic in a decade!
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[ronsatspokane]

Homo sapiens ("wise man")



Blue wildebeest. They look like this cull cow that I shot in Namibia. They taste great in stroganoff.

View attachment 1182035



Crocodiles. Alligators only live in the Americas and China. Here's a croc on the Zambezi in Zimbabwe.

View attachment 1182036

And now back to your regularly scheduled debate.

P.S. For those keeping score, the seasonal flu has killed an average of 38K Americans per year over the past decade, with a standard deviation of 15K. With COVID-19 we're already >4 standard deviations past the mean for seasonal flu (i.e., 99.9% confidence that COVID-19 is not "like the seasonal flu".) We still have 8 months to go before COVID-19 has its first birthday in the U.S., after killing ~100K Americans in just April and May.

The difference being that the expectation of this particular flavor of Coronavirus returning is low. With flu, it's every year, year after year. Some years much worse than others and statistics are deceiving. As with shooting, extreme spread can tell the tale as well as standard deviation. Case in point, 79,000 deaths in the US in 2017-2018. ~35,000 in 2018-2019. This year has yet to be reported but probably 0 as all will be blamed on Coronavirus since state governments perceive that there is money in Coronavirus. Currently the toll from Coronavirus does not equal the toll from the flu over the previous two years. It may get there but then we need to consider the previous decade, the previous score, the previous century. The previous century of course not even covering 1918. The flu has resulted in carnage on a scale unfathomable by mere mortals.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018/archive.htm

 

[ronsatspokane]

Only the past decade again? I'll give you this is the absolute worst pandemic in a decade!
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Not the worst by much. 2017-2018 was very close and I don't believe we ever heard about it on the news.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

Only the past decade again? I'll give you this is the absolute worst pandemic in a decade!
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COVID-19 has already killed more Americans than any influenza (seasonal or pandemic) in the past 50 years. Sometime next month COVID-19 will surpass the 1957-58 H2N2 pandemic flu in U.S. deaths, becoming the most lethal pandemic in more than a century. But you knew that.

 

[ronsatspokane]

COVID-19 has already killed more Americans than any influenza (seasonal or pandemic) in the past 50 years. Sometime next month COVID-19 will surpass the 1957-58 H2N2 pandemic flu in U.S. deaths, becoming the most lethal pandemic in more than a century. But you knew that.

But it won't be here next year. In the meantime the flu continues to take its toll.

P.S. i would much rather see resources directed toward a universal flu vaccine. By the time a vaccine is developed for Covid, it will be gone. All that time and money wasted.

 

[SHall]

I would like to know the true number of deaths actually “caused” by COVID-19? It damn sure is not even close to 100K. On a death certificate a Dr, Coroner, Medical Examiner use to list the “Cause of Death”. That all changed when COVID came along. Now COVID is listed on the death certificate if the person dies “with” or “has had” or has a “symptom of” or “been around the virus”. The patient’s cause of death may have been a heart attack or stoke or some othe prexisting condition, but COVID is listed on the Death Certificate even though is was not the “cause of death” and the patient is counted as a COVID death! In a lot of states half or more of the COVID deaths are in nursing homes. In some states if ONE person in a nursing home has tested positive for COVID-19, then every patient that dies in that nursing home after that is counted as a COVID death because “they have been in contact with a COVID patient”. I did not hear this on the internet, but from someone that counts the COVID deaths. My family has been in the health care system literally since about 1925. My father and grandfather were Dr’s and surgeons, I am sure they would be appauled if they were alive today with the exaggerations, misconceptions, and down right lies that have been told as if it were the truth about this virus and how it has been dealt with. The main stream news has lied so much to dramatize COVID that I hear them contradicting themselved from one week to the next. Sorry again for the rant.

 

[D Coots]

Homo sapiens ("wise man")



Blue wildebeest. They look like this cull cow that I shot in Namibia. They taste great in stroganoff.

View attachment 1182035



Crocodiles. Alligators only live in the Americas and China. Here's a croc on the Zambezi in Zimbabwe.

View attachment 1182036

And now back to your regularly scheduled debate.

P.S. For those keeping score, the seasonal flu has killed an average of 38K Americans per year over the past decade, with a standard deviation of 15K. With COVID-19 we're already >4 standard deviations past the mean for seasonal flu (i.e., 99.9% confidence that COVID-19 is not "like the seasonal flu".) We still have 8 months to go before COVID-19 has its first birthday in the U.S., after killing ~100K Americans in just April and May.

I don't trust the count. 500 dead in Iowa they say.....half of those in nursing homes. We don't live forever.

 

[Brians356]

COVID-19 has already killed more Americans than any influenza (seasonal or pandemic) in the past 50 years. Sometime next month COVID-19 will surpass the 1957-58 H2N2 pandemic flu in U.S. deaths, becoming the most lethal pandemic in more than a century. But you knew that.

Fair enough. But let's be a little more fair, and normalize for population: As a percentage of the total US population, here are the total deaths from the worst flu pandemics in a little more than the last century (CDC data, my computed percentages):

1918: 0.68%
1957: 0.07%
1967: 0.05%
2020: 0.03% (to date)
2018: 0.02%

Suppose you win your bet and the total by year's end is 200,000 deaths. That'd barely nudge ahead of 1968 but still rank behind 1957 and far behind 1918.

Incidentally, while on 17 May I did state Covid-19 was still not much deadlier than a typical "bad" flu season, I never claimed it would not finish much worse than one. But I do feel perspective is served by looking back farther than a decade (after all, four of these five worst flu seasons were in my lifetime) and by normalizing for population.

I also feel it's fair to point out that the vast majority of the US has fared much better on a population-normalized basis compared to past pandemics if not for the near-criminal bungling in New York alone.
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[Toby Bradshaw]

Fair enough. But let's be a little more fair, and normalize for population: As a percentage of the US population, here are the total deaths from the worst flu pandemics in a little more than the last century (CDC data, my computed percentages):

1918: 0.68%
1957: 0.07%
1968: 0.05%
2020: 0.03% (to date)
2018: 0.02%

Suppose you win your bet and the total by year's end is 200,000 deaths. That'd barely nudge ahead of 1968 but still rank behind 1957 and far behind 1918.

Incidentally, while on 17 May I did state Covid-19 was still not much deadlier than a typical "bad" flu season, I never claimed it would not finish much worse than one. But I do feel perspective is served by looking back farther than a decade (after all, four of these five worst flu seasons were in my lifetime) and by normalizing for population.

I also feel it's fair to point out that the vast majority of the US has fared much better on a population-normalized basis compared to past pandemics if not for the near-criminal bungling in New York alone.
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Agreed. COVID-19 is not like the seasonal flu, it's like the pandemic flu.

 

[Sandford]

Fair enough. But let's be a little more fair, and normalize for population: As a percentage of the US population, here are the total deaths from the worst flu pandemics in a little more than the last century (CDC data, my computed percentages):

1918: 0.68%
1957: 0.07%
1968: 0.05%
2020: 0.03% (to date)
2018: 0.02%

Suppose you win your bet and the total by year's end is 200,000 deaths. That'd barely nudge ahead of 1968 but still rank behind 1957 and far behind 1918.

Incidentally, while on 17 May I did state Covid-19 was still not much deadlier than a typical "bad" flu season, I never claimed it would not finish much worse than one. But I do feel perspective is served by looking back farther than a decade (after all, four of these five worst flu seasons were in my lifetime) and by normalizing for population.

I also feel it's fair to point out that the vast majority of the US has fared much better on a population-normalized basis compared to past pandemics if not for the near-criminal bungling in New York alone.
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[Sandford]

In Michigan our numbers are inflated by about 66% using states own numbers. Had three doctors on TV that all admitted to adding to lists because of death certificate or a possibility of symptom or contact with a positive individual. That would move Michigan way down the list. No money in that .

 

[Brians356]

Agreed. COVID-19 is not like the seasonal flu, it's like the pandemic flu.

I'll drink to that. Starting right now ...
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[SGK]

Fair enough. But let's be a little more fair, and normalize for population: As a percentage of the US population, here are the total deaths from the worst flu pandemics in a little more than the last century (CDC data, my computed percentages):

1918: 0.68%
1957: 0.07%
1967: 0.05%
2020: 0.03% (to date)
2018: 0.02%

Suppose you win your bet and the total by year's end is 200,000 deaths. That'd barely nudge ahead of 1968 but still rank behind 1957 and far behind 1918.

Incidentally, while on 17 May I did state Covid-19 was still not much deadlier than a typical "bad" flu season, I never claimed it would not finish much worse than one. But I do feel perspective is served by looking back farther than a decade (after all, four of these five worst flu seasons were in my lifetime) and by normalizing for population.

I also feel it's fair to point out that the vast majority of the US has fared much better on a population-normalized basis compared to past pandemics if not for the near-criminal bungling in New York alone.
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In how many of those years were large scale NPI introduced to curtail the spread of the 'flu?

 

[SGK]

Ultimately it will come down to a review of "excess deaths": death rates versus historical averages. There's a good overview of such for many European countries in the FT (see link below). In many cases, deaths are far higher than those officially recorded as from COVID 19 since more often than not deaths outside of hospitals (and in some cases nursing homes) weren't being recorded accurately.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 (latest analysis)

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c (original article)

 

[ronsatspokane]

Ultimately it will come down to a review of "excess deaths": death rates versus historical averages. There's a good overview of such for many European countries in the FT (see link below). In many cases, deaths are far higher than those officially recorded as from COVID 19 since more often than not deaths outside of hospitals (and in some cases nursing homes) weren't being recorded accurately.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 (latest analysis)

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c (original article)

Here again is an outstanding example of point data combined with statistics crafted to tell a not so clearly defined story and pitched as science. No hypothesis (what is the point?), incomplete data (given that the pandemic is not over), no vetting of the data sources (how reliable is the source), no normalization of data across reporting entities (over/under reporting for various and nefarious reasons), no peer review (alternative analysis of the data and the conclusions presented) and yet many will believe that this is real science.

The only thing clear from that article and every other article currently being printed or printed to date as well as all reporting on the subject and every model used to tell a story is that everyone is in a hurry to tell a story that reflects their preconceived prognostications and/or conclusions. Meanwhile the story continues to evolve. When the data is in, the hypothesis's articulated, the analysis performed, the conclusions presented and the peer reviews are complete, the truth will be known. That is a couple of years away.

In the meantime, a lot of people are still tragically dying, politicians are pointing fingers, the innocent are being persecuted (obviously those who died are old or did not take care of themselves) and the herd is already moving on. Situation normal in the information age.

 

[INTJ]

Ultimately it will come down to a review of "excess deaths": death rates versus historical averages. There's a good overview of such for many European countries in the FT (see link below). In many cases, deaths are far higher than those officially recorded as from COVID 19 since more often than not deaths outside of hospitals (and in some cases nursing homes) weren't being recorded accurately.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441 (latest analysis)

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c (original article)

The problem with using the excess deaths methods is it assumes all others deaths are the same as they have been. That excludes things like the bad flu season we had that overlapped COVID for a few months.

Honest people have made honest mistakes in all this. It's similar to the "fog of war" troops experience in combat. However, in combat the military changes tactics as the situation evolves on the battlefield. With the COVID response there was not much change in tactics as the situation evolved.

 

[Brians356]

From Week.com:

Illinois Department of Public Health Director, Dr. Ngozi Ezike, used part of her time during Sunday's health briefing to explain how the department determines if a death is related to Coronavirus.

Essentially, Dr. Ezike explained that anyone who passes away after testing positive for the virus is included in that category.

"If you were in hospice and had already been given a few weeks to live, and then you also were found to have COVID, that would be counted as a COVID death. It means technically even if you died of a clear alternate cause, but you had COVID at the same time, it's still listed as a COVID death. So, everyone who's listed as a COVID death doesn't mean that that was the cause of the death, but they had COVID at the time of the death." Dr. Ezike outlined.

She reiterated Illinois health officials will continue to work vigorously to protect the state's most vulnerable populations.

A legitimate question is whether Covid-19 death numbers are not being inflated vis a vis previous flu seasons and epidemics in the US. It's a fact that $Trillions are being doled out to hospitals and states, and it's a fact that this health crisis has been highly politicized in a rancorous election year, unlike any previous health crisis.
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