ANY STATISTICAL OBSERVATIONS ?

[jelenko]

That is excellent record keeping and shooting. I think you get a better answer to your statistical question by averaging all of the groups fired of a particular developed load. Hopefully, @jelenko will figure the statistical value of the groups.

Which bullet and load have you found to be most consistent day in and day out, through various conditions?

Thanks for the confidence!

Because we don't know how the groups would overlay, we can't determine the group size around which confidence level and margin of error can be calculated.
Just to clarify. We don't know if the various groups were all centered around the same physical point. I.e., one group could have been a bit to the right, another to the left, another high, etc. So, when they were overlaid, the resulting group could have been significantly larger than any of the individual ones.

There is Bayesian probability that, I think, would predict the the probability of any group size given the groups that have been recorded. But, too long ago for me to use.

 

[Darwin]

Steady 1’s with a cheap 25x.

 

[CharlieNC]

My ten minute assessment:

Because the number of shots affects group size, only the five shot groups for the first three bullets were assessed:

a. The different bullets have no effect on group size
b. On the average the group size is 0.14MOA
c. You can expect group sizes up to 0.25 MOA. Anything above this signifies something non-normal behavior.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Thanks for the confidence!

Because we don't know how the groups would overlay, we can't determine the group size around which confidence level and margin of error can be calculated.
Just to clarify. We don't know if the various groups were all centered around the same physical point. I.e., one group could have been a bit to the right, another to the left, another high, etc. So, when they were overlaid, the resulting group could have been significantly larger than any of the individual ones.

There is Bayesian probability that, I think, would predict the the probability of any group size given the groups that have been recorded. But, too long ago for me to use.

Yes, Bayesian analysis would provide predictions. Bayesian Algorithms are use to determine outcome probabilities in AI. This was a field I was researching prior to retirement. It would be interesting to see what Microsofts AI Chatbot would say with the data presented. I'm retired and lost interest in the subject but maybe someone has the time and the interest. There are also a number of clustering algorithms like K Means and Random Forest which could be useful. Not sure what or how many different algorithms chatbot employs.

 

[Bill Norris]

My ten minute assessment:

Because the number of shots affects group size, only the five shot groups for the first three bullets were assessed:

a. The different bullets have no effect on group size
b. On the average the group size is 0.14MOA
c. You can expect group sizes up to 0.25 MOA. Anything above this signifies something non-normal behavior.

View attachment 1422483

So from what I'm seeing here if I am understanding correctly it appears we are looking at a rifle capable of staying within a .250 MOA but averaging .140 MOA. WOW! Imagine that. Brian & Hornady said they had not seen a 1/4 MOA rifle. Dang, if my rifle had wings I bet it would jump up on the fence post and beat its chest a time or two.

 

[Darwin]

You should gab with Erik for an hour.

 

[dcali]

It would be interesting to see what Microsofts AI Chatbot would say with the data presented.

Probably a bunch of repetitive gibberish good enough to get a C- at a mediocre public school.

Funnily enough, I asked chatGPT about anneal brass the other day. What it told me was beyond incorrect. The robots haven’t won yet.

 

[dcali]

So from what I'm seeing here if I am understanding correctly it appears we are looking at a rifle capable of staying within a .250 MOA but averaging .140 MOA. WOW! Imagine that. Brian & Hornady said they had not seen a 1/4 MOA rifle. Dang, if my rifle had wings I bet it would jump up on the fence post and beat its chest a time or two.

I think it’s safe to say that if you bet money on every group you shot with an over/under of .250 and took the under, you’d be a wealthy man.

Edit: I also don't think that modern rifles that shoot 1/4 MOA "all day long" under ideal conditions are all that rare. If I'm sitting in dead calm with multiple wind flags, leisurely shooting groups with a dialed in bench gun, I'm disappointed when I shoot over .250. Doing it in competition conditions on demand is another matter entirely, but that's a shooter problem not a rifle problem. Anyone who has never seen such a beast isn't looking in the right places.

 

[CharlieNC]

So from what I'm seeing here if I am understanding correctly it appears we are looking at a rifle capable of staying within a .250 MOA but averaging .140 MOA. WOW! Imagine that. Brian & Hornady said they had not seen a 1/4 MOA rifle. Dang, if my rifle had wings I bet it would jump up on the fence post and beat its chest a time or two.

Yes, for five shot groups. I was able to copy and print a segment of a Litz podcast which showed a page of 100 groups of five shots each which exhibited periods of vertical stringing, horizontal stringing, diagonals in both directions, and typical round groups with a flyer. While the group sizes may be characterized by a normal distribution, it appears other undesirable behavior was occuring.

Group size increases with the number of shots and is not a robust characterization of precision, but that is somewhat beside the point as it is often the defined scoring paramater.

 

[Dave M.]

Excellent groups!!! I agree with Dave. Load some for shooting and fun with H4198 and investigate V130 now that you have a load with H4198. See if with the different bullets it will make a better group than V130.

A lot of guys tell me to try the Viht powders in my dasher and I finally have plenty to try but waiting on the new barrel to arrive

 

[Dave M.]

A lot of guys tell me to try the Viht powders in my dasher and I finally have plenty to try but waiting on the new barrel to arrive

I’m anxious to try the N140 against my go to RL-15 with the new barrel.
Dave

 

[Jeff Porter]

Probably a bunch of repetitive gibberish good enough to get a C- at a mediocre public school.

Funnily enough, I asked chatGPT about anneal brass the other day. What it told me was beyond incorrect. The robots haven’t won yet.

Ask it about neck sizing ….