Vista Outdoor and the Primer Market

[Link]

I will go back to the OP, I call BS. I just talked to 2 gun shop owners in the area, they have seen no to very little reloading components or ammo since this has started. This s like the farmer saying his chickens are at full production but no one is seeing any eggs lol The propaganda machines are running at full strength though. I have been wro wra a well mistaken before. B.S.*

 

[Brians356]

I will go back to the OP, I call BS. I just talked to 2 gun shop owners in the area, they have seen no to very little reloading components or ammo since this has started. This s like the farmer saying his chickens are at full production but no one is seeing any eggs lol The propaganda machines are running at full strength though. I have been wro wra a well mistaken before. B.S.*

Supply and demand. Getting ammo and components right now is akin to getting a Covid vaccination. Not only are more people seeking stuff (millions of "new" gun owners) but when someone happens to be lucky (in a store or online) they're buying ten times more than they normally would, i.e. there's a lot of hoarding. That 10x hoarding multiplier is what sucks up the supply.

Consider toilet paper. There's a huge tissue paper mill in my hometown, the largest employer. I know friends and relatives who either work there, or have younger family members working there. During the TP "shortage" that mill was running at 110% 24/7 as was every tissue mill on the continent. Yet the shelves were always empty. Do you suppose paper industry conspirators were hiding the TP somewhere, or lying about running production full bore, to drive up prices? Sorry, chums, but hoarding was what emptied those shelves.
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[Murray Brook]

You guys remind me of my deer camp guys, there's 5 of us. Been together since the 50's, a doctor, a lawyer, a realtor, and a banker. All are way past millionaires and all of them did it on their own and all of them have made a lot of money in the stock market, and they all have tried to get me to invest in this or that but I stayed with what I knew something about. I knew that I couldn't pick out a stock that was going up but I did know about land and cattle so that's where I stayed. They've all done well with the market but I never believed that I knew enough about it to try it.... John

So true and keep in mind they don't make land anymore.

 

[JimT]

Yes, I’m glad you mentioned the money market. I’ll brag on Trump, we had a small money market account and it increased 1 1/2 times in value during his time in office.

Are you saying a small money market fund increased by 150% without putting in additional amounts?

 

[JimT]

I will go back to the OP, I call BS. I just talked to 2 gun shop owners in the area, they have seen no to very little reloading components or ammo since this has started. This s like the farmer saying his chickens are at full production but no one is seeing any eggs lol The propaganda machines are running at full strength though. I have been wro wra a well mistaken before. B.S.*

If your top 20 largest customers increase their orders 500% who do you think gets product? Are your 2 gun shops on that list?

 

[wagonman]

Supply and demand. Getting ammo and components right now is akin to getting a Covid vaccination. Not only are more people seeking stuff (millions of "new" gun owners) but when someone happens to be lucky (in a store or online) they're buying ten times more than they normally would, i.e. there's a lot of hoarding. That 10x hoarding multiplier is what sucks up the supply.

Consider toilet paper. There's a huge tissue paper mill in my hometown, the largest employer. I know friends and relatives who either work there, or have younger family members working there. During the TP "shortage" that mill was running at 110% 24/7 as was every tissue mill on the continent. Yet the shelves were always empty. Do you suppose paper industry conspirators were hiding the TP somewhere, or lying about running production full bore, to drive up prices? Sorry, chums, but hoarding was what emptied those shelves.
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no spin and in plain English( supply and demand)

 

[Brians356]

If your top 20 largest customers increase their orders 500% who do you think gets product? Are your 2 gun shops on that list?

People ask me, breathlessly, "Will you get a vaccination?" I answer "Uh, just when do I have to decide? I'm under 70, not in a nursing home, not a healthcare worker, not a first-responder, not a schoolteacher, and not "of color". (The latter, according to Biden, is a now a priority - I'm often off-color, does that count?) By the time I'm offered a shot, most of the world will have had one, and any adverse effects should be well known.
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[457ciSBC]

If your top 20 largest customers increase their orders 500% who do you think gets product? Are your 2 gun shops on that list?

It saw this 2012, local company was getting some product when no one else was seeming to get it. I found out they were able to leverage a couple of locations and secure a loan for 1.1 million. What that loan did was send them further up into the queue with the distributors. Having the ability to place single $350-$400K orders got them much higher up in the food chain than the smaller business trying to order $15K worth of product.

 

[jackson1]

People ask me, breathlessly, "Will you get a vaccination?" I answer "Uh, just when do I have to decide? I'm under 70, not in a nursing home, not a healthcare worker, not a first-responder, not a schoolteacher, and not "of color". (The latter, according to Biden, is a now a priority - I'm often off-color, does that count?) By the time I'm offered a shot, most of the world will have had one, and any adverse effects should be well known.
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Even the terrorists at Gitmo.

 

[Link]

Who here has bought anything [related] from a larger business or any where? And who has not?

 

[JimT]

Who here has bought anything [related] from a larger business or any where? And who has not?

I have.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Precious metals, hey? Here's 100 years of gold prices adjusted for inflation ("real dollars"). "Kept its value" means that over any period of time, you will have at least broken even. Suppose you bought gold during the Great Depression and lived until 1970. How'd that work out? Or bought in 1975 and lived until 2000.

View attachment 1225823

Next we'll look at land as your sole investment.
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Land may or may not be a worthwhile investment. In many states the property taxes are high enough that should you hold onto it for an extended period, you may not even get back what you have put into it in terms of the combination of principle and taxes. Not to mention the opportunity cost of the taxes you paid on that land. Ask me how I know. Now if it has oil, minerals, resort potential or will be consumed by urban sprawl that is another story.

 

[Brians356]

Land may or may not be a worthwhile investment. In many states the property taxes are high enough that should you hold onto it for an extended period, you may not even get back what you have put into it in terms of the combination of principle and taxes. Not to mention the opportunity cost of the taxes you paid on that land. Ask me how I know. Now if it has oil, minerals, resort potential or will be consumed by urban sprawl that is another story.

I don't have to ask how you know. I'll be lucky to break even, and probably won't, on 10 acres I bought in the '80s in Idaho. I'd have multiplied that investment many times over in equity index funds, probably quadrupled it at least. That's opportunity cost.
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[ronsatspokane]

I don't have to ask how you know. I'll be lucky to break even, and probably won't, on 10 acres I bought in the '80s in Idaho. I'd have multiplied that investment many times over in equity index funds, probably quadrupled it at least. That's opportunity cost.
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I feel your pain.

 

[LHSmith]

I'll be so poor after the bin biden years, I'll have to rent my cemetary plot.

 

[JimT]

You guys remind me of my deer camp guys, there's 5 of us. Been together since the 50's, a doctor, a lawyer, a realtor, and a banker. All are way past millionaires and all of them did it on their own and all of them have made a lot of money in the stock market, and they all have tried to get me to invest in this or that but I stayed with what I knew something about. I knew that I couldn't pick out a stock that was going up but I did know about land and cattle so that's where I stayed. They've all done well with the market but I never believed that I knew enough about it to try it....

See the chart posted above by brians356 (Carrera 2?) to see you don’t need to know anything to invest in an S&P 500 index fund.

 

[TC260]

That 10x hoarding multiplier is what sucks up the supply.

Consider toilet paper. There's a huge tissue paper mill in my hometown, the largest employer. I know friends and relatives who either work there, or have younger family members working there. During the TP "shortage" that mill was running at 110% 24/7 as was every tissue mill on the continent. Yet the shelves were always empty.

It doesn't even have to be hoarding. Even with strict limits, just more people buying has a huge effect. I watched it everyday at work. We'd roll out a semi truck of toilet paper and it would be gone in a couple hours. Normally say 1 out of 5 customers would buy a pack of toilet paper, during a shortage 5 out of 5 buy a pack. Nobody's hoarding per se but the result is 5x the product moving off the shelf and we can't keep in stock.

 

[Dusty Stevens]

Land may or may not be a worthwhile investment. In many states the property taxes are high enough that should you hold onto it for an extended period, you may not even get back what you have put into it in terms of the combination of principle and taxes. Not to mention the opportunity cost of the taxes you paid on that land. Ask me how I know. Now if it has oil, minerals, resort potential or will be consumed by urban sprawl that is another story.

The way i view land and precious metals is youll keep your same money (with inflation) and not really lose anything, but like your last sentence, theres a chance you could get a big payday but not likely on land and definitely not likely on metals. Its like putting your money in a mattress and not putting it to work making more money.

 

[ronsatspokane]

The way i view land and precious metals is youll keep your same money (with inflation) and not really lose anything, but like your last sentence, theres a chance you could get a big payday but not likely on land and definitely not likely on metals. Its like putting your money in a mattress and not putting it to work making more money.

Not always the case. I owned property in a very rural area for over 30 years. I got sick of being ripped off on taxes and finally sold it for less than the principle plus the taxes I paid over those years. Had that money and those taxes been invested for the last 30 years it would be a substantial sum. The DOW was roughly 960 on December 31 1980. It was at roughly 18,000 in 2015 when I sold the property. The initial principle plus the early taxes would have been 18 times higher. Assuming dollar cost averaging of the taxes I paid in the intervening years, 10-12 times the investment would not be far off. That land was one of the worst investments I ever made. There are costs associated with land ownership that many fail to factor in. It is not an asset that you buy and sit on. You pay for it every year, year after year and should you challange the tax valuation, guess where that goes. My tax valuation for the property was over twice what it eventually sold for and it was on the market for over a year. That was in WA.

 

[JimT]

Not always the case. I owned property in a very rural area for over 30 years. I got sick of being ripped off on taxes and finally sold it for less than the principle plus the taxes I paid over those years. Had that money and those taxes been invested for the last 30 years it would be a substantial sum. The DOW was roughly 960 on December 31 1980. It was at roughly 18,000 in 2015 when I sold the property. The initial principle plus the early taxes would have been 18 times higher. Assuming dollar cost averaging of the taxes I paid in the intervening years, 10-12 times the investment would not be far off. That land was one of the worst investments I ever made. There are costs associated with land ownership that many fail to factor in. It is not an asset that you buy and sit on. You pay for it every year, year after year and should you challange the tax valuation, guess where that goes. My tax valuation for the property was over twice what it eventually sold for and it was on the market for over a year. That was in WA.

Of course, there is always the other side of the coin. I purchased my home 6.5 years ago and have likely exceeded the section 121 joint limit ( after commission) if I were to sell it today. The same is true of the home I previously sold. Thankfully I also live in a lower real estate tax area. I count myself lucky.

In the end, your home should be a place of contentment and pride not an investment.