Vista Outdoor and the Primer Market

[Dusty Stevens]

Vista is on a March 31 year ending fiscal year. The most recent quarter ended on September 30th and was their 2nd quarter.

Yea sorry the 3rd spot on my chart is usually 3rd quarter but its second on them. Q3 eps is available 2/4 pre market.

 

[jelenko]

Putting aside potential missteps within Vista, their stock, along with other firearms mfg's will turn down as soon as there are signs that demand and supply are coming into balance. Further, putting aside political intervention, typically as supply starts to catch up, there are many orders that are cancelled because the buyer had double/triple ordered. This causes demand to quickly drop below supply - really driving prices down.
I think an interesting question is whether demand for ammo will continue at a high level even after gun sales start to taper off. I.e., there could be unmet demand for ammo from the people who had already bought a gun. If I have it right, Vista is focused on ammo/components and not firearms themselves.

So, if you don't get out early enough, you can lose non trivial amount of capital.
And, of course, the wild card is what happens politically.

Full disclosure. I only own mutual funds and have no idea what they have bought/sold or are buying.

 

[hoz53]

Putting aside potential missteps within Vista, their stock, along with other firearms mfg's will turn down as soon as there are signs that demand and supply are coming into balance. Further, putting aside political intervention, typically as supply starts to catch up, there are many orders that are cancelled because the buyer had double/triple ordered. This causes demand to quickly drop below supply - really driving prices down.
I think an interesting question is whether demand for ammo will continue at a high level even after gun sales start to taper off. I.e., there could be unmet demand for ammo from the people who had already bought a gun. If I have it right, Vista is focused on ammo/components and not firearms themselves.

So, if you don't get out early enough, you can lose non trivial amount of capital.
And, of course, the wild card is what happens politically.

Full disclosure. I only own mutual funds and have no idea what they have bought/sold or are buying.

Well that’s one possible scenario, but Joe and Kamala may end up like Obama being the best gun salespeople in the country for their entire terms. I think the gun stocks have much potential at this time. Demand for guns may be slacking off a little now just because there is no ammo available to shoot them. Baring legal interventions ammo supply will catch up one of these days. I may have to wait to sell my guns til then. I’m playing the gun companies with the houses money anyway so it can’t hurt to bad. Ill report back this time next year.

 

[jelenko]

Well that’s one possible scenario, but Joe and Kamala may end up like Obama being the best gun salespeople in the country for their entire terms. I think the gun stocks have much potential at this time. Demand for guns may be slacking off a little now just because there is no ammo available to shoot them. Baring legal interventions ammo supply will catch up one of these days. I may have to wait to sell my guns til then. I’m playing the gun companies with the houses money anyway so it can’t hurt to bad. Ill report back this time next year.

Hmm. That's a good point. Other than sending a signal that they are going to 'lay low' for a while on gun control, is there anything they could do that would cause gun sales to slow down? Even if they restricted sales on, say, MSR, it would seem sales of other types would increase, perhaps even more.

All that said, stocks/bonds are always a 'bet' with risk.

 

[Riesel]

A little profit taking, here and there, is a good thing, don't you think so Dusty?

 

[Dusty Stevens]

A little profit taking, here and there, is a good thing, don't you think so Dusty?

I go by that philosophy. Got a guy that calls and reminds me

 

[HTSmith]

I go by that philosophy. Got a guy that calls and reminds me

Daddy used to say "Pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered". I try to follow that philosophy. Sometimes I leave money on the table and sometimes I avoid train wrecks. At least you are playing with the house's money.

 

[Dusty Stevens]

Daddy used to say "Pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered". I try to follow that philosophy. Sometimes I leave money on the table and sometimes I avoid train wrecks. At least you are playing with the house's money.

My crypto is what always slaughters me. I take my investments out of stocks and play with profits pretty early in the game

 

[Mudcat]

Just bought some Vista stock. Might as well "support" a gun biz. Will be interesting to see where it goes. with $1billion in ammo backorders, should be up, at least for a while.

 

[Brians356]

Vista Outdoors (VSTO) was a $50 stock until Trump was elected. Then it gradually fell to $7.50. Now it is back up to $20. It has been at $20 since August and does not seem to be going anywhere.

Buy low. Sell high.
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[Brians356]

Any 12 year old can make whisky. Jack Daniels was 12 when he bought the business from the pastor in his home town. Primers are just a little harder to manufacture.

I can out-drink any 12-year-old, though, you bet.
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[hoz53]

I can out-drink any 12-year-old, though, you bet.
-

mabie- in some countries there is no legal drinking age and they start young

 

[hoz53]

Hmm. That's a good point. Other than sending a signal that they are going to 'lay low' for a while on gun control, is there anything they could do that would cause gun sales to slow down? Even if they restricted sales on, say, MSR, it would seem sales of other types would increase, perhaps even more.

All that said, stocks/bonds are always a 'bet' with risk.

yep stocks are gambling pure and simple

 

[JimT]

yep stocks are gambling pure and simple

Not a bad one if you don’t get scared and irrational and sell:

Dow Jones - DJIA - 100 Year Historical Chart

Interactive chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock market index for the last 100 years. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

www.macrotrends.net

Key Market Indexes | Historical Chart Gallery | StockCharts.com

An extensive collection of significant long-term charts with historical price data back to 1900, presented in a large format for detailed study

stockcharts.com

 

[Mr. Zorg]

Not a bad one if you don’t get scared and irrational and sell:

Dow Jones - DJIA - 100 Year Historical Chart

Interactive chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock market index for the last 100 years. Historical data is inflation-adjusted using the headline CPI and each data point represents the month-end closing value. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today's latest value.

www.macrotrends.net

Key Market Indexes | Historical Chart Gallery | StockCharts.com

An extensive collection of significant long-term charts with historical price data back to 1900, presented in a large format for detailed study

stockcharts.com

Pay attention to the logarithmic Y-axis in the chart at the first link. Looks can be decieving.

For the same data with a linear Y-axis look here.

100 Years Dow Jones Industrial Average Chart History (Updated ) - TradingNinvestment

Dow Jones chart shows major Dow Jones Industrial Average history events from 1920 to present including all the majors peaks and crashes of US stock market .

tradingninvestment.com

If you just put "DJIA" in a Google search field, current values pop up with a (limited) interactive chart with linear axes.

 

[JimT]

FYI

Should Value Investors Buy Vista Outdoor (VSTO) Stock?

Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[jelenko]

Not a bad one if you don’t get scared and irrational and sell:

That's for all DJIA stocks. Individual ones have come and gone.

 

[JimT]

That's for all DJIA stocks. Individual ones have come and gone.

That’s why you broadly diversify or buy index funds. As the charts show, if you stay invested you can’t lose. The same can’t be said for “gambling.” With that said, I am not a BUYER at the current levels except in cases of undervalued specific stocks like VSTO.

 

[hoz53]

That’s why you broadly diversify or buy index funds. As the charts show, if you stay invested you can’t lose. The same can’t be said for “gambling.”

Id have to agree - unless we have a complete Meltdown, investing in the broader US market will give a person positive results over time. I just dont have enough time.

 

[jelenko]

Right. It takes time and timing is everything.