COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[David101]

Out of curiosity for all those people that are basically dismissing covid as nothing to really worry about. What sort of numbers or how close to home would it have to strike to make you change your mind? Serious question.

 

[Laurie]

These issues and serious discussion of them have arisen (more accurately, re-arisen) in the UK this week with the city of Leicester and its environs having been exempted from both existing lockdown easements and the much larger range coming into force across the rest of England on Saturday July 4th. ie Leicester has seen a return to 'lockdown' as applied nationally in late March being imposed.

This is due to a spike in cases in the city. However, cases per 1,000 are way below April levels and way below the WHO's 400 / 1,000 'epidemic' definition and have started to fall again over the last seven days so aren't on a runaway upward trajectory. What is interesting is both the media response and that of many epidemiologists which are almost united in saying a new lockdown is OTT, also that the mortality rate of recent new cases is such a low percentage compared to that of the early days that any risks don't justify such a harsh response compared to an intensified track & trace effort, closer linking of new infections to postcodes and other factors in a basically watching & waiting response.

In fact, not only does it appear difficult to find any scientist willing to publicly support the measures, there is a growing band of those arguing that whilst understandable in the circumstances and confusion pertaining in March/April, hindsight will probably show that blanket lockdowns were not only unjustified, but possibly harmful.

 

[ronsatspokane]

Out of curiosity for all those people that are basically dismissing covid as nothing to really worry about. What sort of numbers or how close to home would it have to strike to make you change your mind? Serious question.

I don't think anyone is dismissing it. What is being panned is the response from the media and many of our elected officials. The response in Oregon and Washington for example. Masks suddenly become a requirement 5 months in and the media has turned back to virus reporting after reporting on "peaceful" protests for a month now. And as we all know, "peaceful" protests cannot transmit the virus. Funny the uptick is occurring during and as "peaceful" protests wain. Funny also is that the virus now seems to be running in through the protester demographic.

In the meantime, deaths from shootings and knifings on the streets of Chicago, car wrecks, drug overdose, suicide, cancer, heart disease, other viruses and organisms, drownings and all other causes which easily eclipse coronavirus go unreported.

As I said earlier, death stalks us daily on this planet. One day it will catch up to us all. Embrace the horror.

 

[INTJ]

For perspective, here is data for the US from 2017.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

• Number of deaths: 2,813,503
• Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population
• Life expectancy: 78.6 years
• Infant Mortality rate: 5.79 deaths per 1,000 live births

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

 

[afret]

The increased number of tests probably a big part of the increased number of cases. States that started opening a couple months ago should have had surges a week or two after reopening, not 2 months later. The increased number of hospitalizations can be largely attributed to the fact that most hospitals require testing prior to procedures. If you test positive and go to the hospital for a procedure, you are counted as a Wuhan case even if you don't go there for Wuhan treatment and are Wuhan asymptomatic. I even read that Texas doesn't distinguish between Wuhan tests and Wuhan antibody tests and lumps them together.

 

[Texas10]

 

[INTJ]

View attachment 1187828

Not really. Much of this mask wearing is nothing more than virtue signaling.

While the masks everyone are wearing do have some effectiveness in certain indoor environment, the true measure of IQ is how someone practices social distancing.

 

[Brians356]

Not really. Much of this mask wearing is nothing more than virtue signaling.

While the masks everyone are wearing do have some effectiveness in certain indoor environment, the true measure of IQ is how someone practices social distancing.

Since he didn't stipulate, he must have meant wearing a mask is to fail the IQ test.

Here's Nancy explaining all the reasons why The President not wearing a mask is deplorable and undoubtedly killing people. (Note: She's not wearing a mask. Now that's chutzpah.)

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[6MMsteve]

kinda like the female asstronot with the hair standing up, then when she flips the hair never moves.points down..Hmmm...guess I'm seeing things

 

[Brians356]

kinda like the female asstronot with the hair standing up, then when she flips the hair never moves.points down..Hmmm...guess I'm seeing things

You said it.
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[Highpower-FClass]

... States that started opening a couple months ago should have had surges a week or two after reopening, not 2 months later...

It takes a while for infectious diseases to 'gather steam'. There are a couple of factors to this. First, when states re-opened, everyone did not go from 'full quarantine behavior' to 'full pre-quarantine behavior' over night. Heck, I still haven't had a haircut even though I now can get one, and I have been to a restaurant to eat exactly once since the Texas reopening. It takes a while for people to get back to the 'out and about' habits, either through caution or inertia.

Second, whether it is at the initial outbreak of an infectious disease, or in this case after reopening after a quarantine, it takes a number of incubation cycles for spikes to occur. This is why charts for uncontrolled spread of infectious diseases look like hockey sticks. Slow spread in the beginning where there are few spreaders and it takes an incubation cycle to get to the next set of spreaders etc., which then depending on the R0 of the disease will start to snowball and create more or less severe spikes after a few incubation cycles.

If we assume that there has been two months since the re-ignition of the spread it means about four incubation cycles have passed. Couple that with large gatherings of people ignoring social distancing in many areas during these incubation cycles and I am not surprised there are spikes in densely populated areas at this point in time.

 

[Brians356]

the WHO's 400 / 1,000 'epidemic' definition

Laurie, isn't that 40% of population infected? Seems a little high.
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[Brians356]

For perspective, here is data for the US from 2017.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

• Number of deaths: 2,813,503
• Death rate: 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population
• Life expectancy: 78.6 years
• Infant Mortality rate: 5.79 deaths per 1,000 live births

Number of deaths for leading causes of death:

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Look at it another way. Take just your leading causes of death, and remove the accidents and suicides. You're left with at least (there are other natural causes not listed) 1.9 million deaths per year from disease. Of which the current Covid-19 deaths are < 1/15. If we get to 200,000 deaths they're 1/10. Not chopped liver, but something of a ripple on the pond of the ongoing human suffering from disease. It's easy to mouth "Even a single death is a tragedy!" Well, I've lost my share of loved ones to disease, and suffered the loss accordingly, but none (yet) was a Covid-19 victim. So I'll not feel heartless or cruel for putting this "crisis" in perspective.
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[Laurie]

Laurie, isn't that 40% of population infected? Seems a little high.
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Yup - should be per 100,000. Newly re locked down Leicester is running somewhere in the 140s / 100K positive results and falling. Where I live (York) is 1.9 infections per 100,000 for the w/e 28th June and that in turn had fallen by two-thirds from the previous week. That suggests that being struck and killed by lightning or a meteor is about as great a risk as the disease, or given the number of homicidal cyclists here being hit by one is very much greater than the current Covid risk . (There are plenty of tests being done here now. After a near disastrous start, the UK is now well up the global league table in terms of tests per million population.)

 

[Brians356]

Yup - should be per 100,000. Newly re locked down Leicester is running somewhere in the 140s / 100K positive results and falling. Where I live (York) is 1.9 infections per 100,000 for the w/e 28th June and that in turn had fallen by two-thirds from the previous week. That suggests that being struck and killed by lightning or a meteor is about as great a risk as the disease, or given the number of homicidal cyclists here being hit by one is very much greater than the current Covid risk . (There are plenty of tests being done here now. After a near disastrous start, the UK is now well up the global league table in terms of tests per million population.)

Are referring to "positivity", i.e. per 100k tests, or positives per 100k population?
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[Laurie]

Are referring to "positivity", i.e. per 100k tests, or positives per 100k population?
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Population Brian. So actual infection levels are obviously higher, the degree depending on testing levels. Now that the UK has got up to around 300,000 tests daily recent positive results values have become reasonably indicative of trends in the actual circulation of the virus in the population and whether its really going up or down and by how much.

The other positive indicator here is that the last week for which collected figures are available shows mortality levels from all causes have now dropped to the five preceding years' average, in fact is a little below. This is the first week where deaths haven't risen since the virus really got going. Interestingly, it contradicts previously held views that some of the unexplained / 'excess' deaths were due to people taken ill with other conditions not being treated in a timely fashion. (But others have argued that a counter-trend should now appear as many Covid deaths of very elderly and frail people in care and nursing homes in March and April were so-called displaced deaths, ie premature but by relatively short amounts.) In any event, we'll have to see if this overall aggregate is a one-off return to the seasonal average or a trend.

 

[Brians356]

Population Brian. So actual infection levels are obviously higher, the degree depending on testing levels.

Thanks. And to review, WHO considers infection rate of 400 per 100k population "epidemic"? That's interesting.

I like to look down the wrong end of the telescope. Suppose the infection rate was 90k per 100k population, but the fatality rate was 2 per 100k infections. What mitigation approach, if any, would be appropriate?
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[Brians356]

FDA revokes authorization for hydroxychloroquine. No surprises there.

It ain't over 'til it's over. New study:

"... hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin was associated with a significant reduction in-hospital mortality ..."

The study (via International Journal Of Infectious Diseases):

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

The eye candy:


Commentary:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/07...ydroxychloroquine-mortality-rate-cut-in-half/
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[Highpower-FClass]

Charts of hospitalizations (ICU and general beds) for the greater Houston area.

Hospitalizations are increasing fairly rapidly, both ICU and General beds.

Hopefully fatality rates will not commensurate with the hospitalization rates. And hopefully hospitalization rates will slow down.





Fatality counts over time for some of the larger counties in Texas (plus Fort Bend county):

 

[Brians356]

Charts of hospitalizations (ICU and general beds) for the greater Houston area.

Hospitalizations are increasing fairly rapidly, both ICU and General beds.

I wish every state published this level of detail. Two things stand out for me: The surge capacity available, and that currently 42% of ICU usage is Covid-19. We forget how many ICU patients there are under normal conditions. Many elective surgeries were postponed and stacking up, then a surge of sorts resulted as hospitals came out of lockdown mode. Also cancers etc not discovered when routine health screenings were suspended, or people with cancer or cardio symptoms chose not to seek immediate attention.
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