COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[Brians356]

If it were all youngsters I doubt hospitalizations would be rising.

I never said all the cases, I said most of them.

Where do you see cumulative hospitalizations rising more than the ~1.5% per day Florida has seen for the past month? I don't see it.



New hospitalizations, 1-week moving average:


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[David101]

I think you may be wr

Flash: "No evidence of contracting Covid-19 from food or food packaging". No surprise there, the virus' mythical survival skills outside the friendly confines of the body had already been debunked in the lab.

The spike in new cases is largely among younger people eschewing social distancing in bars and clubs. Picture typical "spring break" behavior. If my assessment proves out, I don't expect an equivalent spike in deaths, since the most vulnerable (elderly and infirm) are still locked down. If (!) hospitalizations and deaths can be contained, there's a perverse positive effect: inching toward herd immunity.
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https://seekingalpha.com/news/35859...-40&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha
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I think you may be misinformed about the virus being able to spread via food. Or at least the answer should be it depends on your definition of transmitted via food. There have been known cases where the handling of food has transmitted the disease. An instance would be meat workers that pass a piece of meat from one person to the next. other methods that have occurred are food delivered on a tray from an infected person to a quarantined person. What is more worrying I think is that while it has never really been said that it can spread "airbourne" as such it is clear that it has spread via central air conditioning units.

 

[JimT]

Yup. (Although sick people don't work much.) Just getting started. Plenty of room to grow. I wouldn't put much stock in anything coming out of De Santis's mouth. If it were all youngsters I doubt hospitalizations would be rising. Hopefully the death count doesn't turn up but it's very early days on that front. It almost certainly will but hopefully not as badly as NY did. The next 4-6 weeks are going to be interesting. Very good chance we beat NY's one day new confirmed case count record and add another trophy to the cupboard.

They've closed the beaches here again now (as well as bars) but I believe the marinas are still open. All good!

Arizona takes tenth place, nipping at Georgia's heals. The Carolina's head higher also.

Yeah, wish this guy was leading the charge!!!!

https://www.mygwork.com/en/my-g-news/andrew-gillum-linked-to-meth-overdose-of-gay-escort-incident

 

[Dgd6mm]

Yeah, wish this guy was leading the charge!!!!

https://www.mygwork.com/en/my-g-news/andrew-gillum-linked-to-meth-overdose-of-gay-escort-incident

Now that there is funny!

 

[Brians356]

I think you may be misinformed about the virus being able to spread via food. Or at least the answer should be it depends on your definition of transmitted via food.

I don't need to define anything, it's in the CDC report:

Coronaviruses, like the one that causes COVID-19, are thought to spread mostly person-to-person through respiratory droplets when someone coughs, sneezes, or talks. It is possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object, including food or food packaging, that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. However, this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads. Currently, there is no evidence to suggest that handling food or consuming food is associated with COVID-19. [Emphasis added. ]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/food-and-COVID-19.html
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[Toby Bradshaw]

... it seems that covid is only about as deadly as the flu.

COVID-19 has an infection fatality rate 5-20 times higher than the seasonal flu, and in 5 months has already killed more Americans than any seasonal or pandemic influenza in the past century.

If you prefer to keep score by deaths as a percentage of population rather than as a raw number, the sentence above will be true by the end of this year.

More than 90% of the U.S. population is still susceptible to COVID-19, and in the U.S. R0 is going back up to its uncontrolled value of ~2.5 (~twice that of the seasonal flu). From the virus's point of view, things are just getting started in a target-rich environment.

I will win my bet easily.

 

[ronsatspokane]

COVID-19 has an infection fatality rate 5-20 times higher than the seasonal flu, and in 5 months has already killed more Americans than any seasonal or pandemic influenza in the past century.

If you prefer to keep score by deaths as a percentage of population rather than as a raw number, the sentence above will be true by the end of this year.

More than 90% of the U.S. population is still susceptible to COVID-19, and in the U.S. R0 is going back up to its uncontrolled value of ~2.5 (~twice that of the seasonal flu). From the virus's point of view, things are just getting started in a target-rich environment.

I will win my bet easily.

Per 100,000 the death rate is about the same as the common flu. As further testing occurs it continues to drop and may actually drop below that of the common flu. Perhaps had it not been for shipping all those covid patients to nursing homes and all those "peaceful" protests, the volume of both infections and deaths would be much much lower. Fortunately other states have learned from the mistakes (if they were mistakes) made in New York and New Jersey with respect to nursing homes.

 

[Dgd6mm]

B.S. on every number out to the Public. This Country doesn't have a clue nor do the people on this Forum what the true numbers actually are! This thread is very amusing to me. I'm in Florida, from P.B.C. and my wife is in the medical field.

Where Doomed!

 

[butchlambert]

B.S. on every number out to the Public. This Country doesn't have a clue nor do the people on this Forum what the true numbers actually are! This thread is very amusing to me. I'm in Florida, from P.B.C. and my wife is in the medical field.

Where Doomed!

Where? I guess I will be doomed in Texas.

 

[jds holler]

Ya wanna talk about doom and death, , well how about this: 60 million of us are gonna croak this year, just from normal reasons. Lets say that this virus might bump the needle by a million or so. That aint peanuts but it isn't much different than many weather events, natural disasters, or other sickness, disease, and famine might cause in any given year.

Everybody gets so obsessed by death that ya might forget to really LIVE while you've got the chance. And while you're living, I'd highly recommend developing a tight, loving relationship with Jesus Christ and the other wonderful folks that ya share space with in your little world.

Dying on this earth seems scary, but it's for damned sure not the worst thing that can happen to you.

Don't worry, be happy and blessed!! jd

 

[338 Mollett]

JD thank You ! for that post !

 

[INTJ]

https://justthenews.com/politics-po...t-counting-every-covid-positive-hospital-case

 

[Brians356]

COVID-19 has an infection fatality rate 5-20 times higher than the seasonal flu, and in 5 months has already killed more Americans than any seasonal or pandemic influenza in the past century.

If you prefer to keep score by deaths as a percentage of population rather than as a raw number, the sentence above will be true by the end of this year.

I do prefer to. Of course 1918 (0.68% of population killed) happens to be outside the past century, so that leaves only 1967 (0.05%) and 1957 (0.07%). To be the deadliest in the past century will take 231,700 deaths, likely to become reality. But considering it'd be nearly an order of magnitude less devastating than 1918, a mean feat.
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[David101]

In 1918 they didnt have the antibiotics they do today, that are used to treat the secondary infections in phnemonia. All the covid patients are being given large doses of multiple antibiotics. That drops the death toll massively compared to 1918.

 

[Brians356]

The median age of new positive cases in Florida has declined from 50 in April to 33 in recent days. And deaths are still trending down even as new cases pile up.


New cases are soaring in part because testing has increased. Since younger and healthier people are getting the disease, it's just possibile that, like SARS, COVID-19 could simply burn itself out as it mutates into a less virulent form over time.
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[SGK]

Florida testing and rates of positivity:



Apart from a surge in testing late last week the level of testing throughout June has been remarkably constant. The positivity ratio has, however, surged - roughly quadrupled. So it's not just a case of more testing finding the same percentage of positive cases but rather rapidly increasing community spread. The positivity ratio in densely populated areas is much higher than the state average. This is as of today's FDOH report. Each day's release, presumably given the time of its release (11am EST), reports on, largely at least, the previous day's figures.

Age of cases: the median age of daily confirmed positive cases has remained remarkably flat throughout June.

13-Jun-20 36
14-Jun-20 35
15-Jun-20 36
16-Jun-20 37
17-Jun-20 36
18-Jun-20 34
19-Jun-20 33
20-Jun-20 33
21-Jun-20 34
22-Jun-20 35
23-Jun-20 33
24-Jun-20 34
25-Jun-20 34
26-Jun-20 34
27-Jun-20 36
28-Jun-20 37
29-Jun-20 37

This can be compared with the age distribution of all confirmed cases in Florida thus far:



Florida has the sixth highest median age of US states at 42.2.

Hospitalisations: early days, of course, but the 7 day moving average has been trending upwards since the second week of June and now exceeds previous peaks.



So far hospital capacity is fine but utilization rates are increasing fast. For example, according to a note to residents sent by the Mayor of Pinecrest last week Miami-Dade ICU bed and ventilator utilization figures have doubled in the last three weeks. There remains good capacity at private hospitals such as Baptist.

We shall see. I don't think we're doomed at all but a lot of people will be. Time for responsible behavior.

 

[SGK]

Per 100,000 the death rate is about the same as the common flu. As further testing occurs it continues to drop and may actually drop below that of the common flu.

The per 100,000 death rate can't fall. It can only go up. Unless JDS has a way of raising them from the dead...or a lot of children are born.

Year in, year out the common 'flu is a big deal in the US and elsewhere. It costs a fortune in doctor visits, hospitalizations, absenteeism and even deaths.(1) This is why an annual flu vaccine is so heavily encouraged. Let's look at 2017/2018, one of the worst recent flu years. The CDC estimates 61,000 people died from the 'flu (95% UI of 46,000 to 95,000). That's 0.019% of the estimated 2018 US population (327.2 million) or 186.4 deaths per million. According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us the death rate per 1 million of population for COVID for the US is at 390 - and rising.

(1) See, for example, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17544181/

 

[ronsatspokane]

The per 100,000 death rate can't fall. It can only go up. Unless JDS has a way of raising them from the dead...or a lot of children are born.

You should take a class in statistics. As testing expands, death rate per 100,000 has fallen. It will continue to do so as more people with antibodies, many who never knew they had it, are discovered and as others with mild symptoms or who are asymptomatic are discovered. The number of people infected is proving to be much higher than was assumed early in the pandemic when the initial death rates were reported.

 

[SGK]

Let's not confuse the death rate of confirmed cases with the death rate per population. With the former, the denominator expands with the discovery of more cases while with the latter it remains largely constant.

The death rate of confirmed cases has fallen, as expected, and in the US it is currently 4.8% of confirmed cases or 10% of cases that are estimated to have reached a resolution (recovery or death). Expect those numbers to continue to fall. Of course the fatality ratio of the virus itself is very likely much lower than death rate of resolved cases (and why we expect those numbers to fall) but is still estimated to greatly exceed that of the flu. The death burden of COVID already far exceeds the 'flu due to its higher IFR.

 

[ronsatspokane]

IFR is undetermined and the argument continues. As I've said a number of times, when the science is in in two years, an understanding will be closer but never complete. Could be that corona virus is less deadly than the flu. But lets not forget about the coming flu pandemic. H1N1 variant being monitored now. Some are predicting another flu pandemic next season. Better keep those doors lock, blinds pulled and in the fetal position. Humanity is doomed.