COVID-19 Map worldwide, with statistics

[SGK]

China is slowly getting back to work 3 months after this started. Social distancing at lunch.

 

[SGK]

The US now has more active cases than Italy

 

[INTJ]

Without question the Wuhan Virus is worse than the seasonal flu and we need to take more precautions than normal, but Wuhan Flu is not an end-of-the-world scenario. Like with Climate Change, the powers that be and the media always take the WORST case scenario and threat it as a certainty. The worst was scenario is rarely the correct scenario.

Maybe my perspective is unique because I spent 12 years as an analyst where I built models for many different scenarios. It is always an error to build a scenario based on the worst case or best case alone. The right way is to present different scenarios and the explain the assumptions for each scenario.

The assumptions are where the battle is fought. The modeling is just simple math, but the modeling is only as valid as the assumptions. I expect and hope that the analysts in the CDC are building various scenarios based on different assumptions.

However, multiple scenarios and a logical explanation doesn't sell news or give political cover, so both the media and political leadership will almost always embrace the worst case scenario. The only place where I have seen any objectivity is on PowerLine, where I have seen various scenarios and perspectives presented.

The most troubling to me is the economic damage that is happening. The worst case scenario is a long depression, but like almost all worse case scenarios that isn't likely. The best case scenario is that the US economy will rapidly recover to pre-pandemic levels the second half of this year. That also isn't likely.

The $2 Trillion stimulus and the $4 Trillion in liquidity may keep the economy dampened for some time. Sure, there will be an initial surge but if past history is any indication, it won't be sustainable and the end state will be lower GDP and higher unemployment going forward.

 

[SGK]

The battle is being fought in hospitals and via the policies governments deploy to aid them, either directly through staffing and equipping and indirectly via NPI. Modeling can help shape such policies by analyzing expected outcomes. As you rightly point out, however, any model is only as good as its assumptions and certainly our understanding of this virus updates quickly. That's why the likes of Ferguson looked at the impact of various assumptions. It's clear, however, that under almost any scenario an unchecked virus crushes the healthcare system. So then it becomes a moral and economic dilemma. How much pain can the economy sustain in return for less loss of life? Government support and monetary measures are socialized to all present and future taxpayers. But as Martin Wolf points out a lot of the damage associated with government directives re social distancing would have happened anyway. People naturally are less inclined to travel, go out when there's a virus lurking the streets etc. So now's not the time to throw many people, particularly those over 60, under the bus.

 

[3Ackleys]

I don't put much stock in what others say in the media or anywhere else. My doctor whom I also shoot with and have known over 30 years, said in our town of 30,000 if we have a conservative percentage of patients needing a ventilator there could be 247 that needed one. Our hospital has 6 ventilators. This would leave 241 that would probably not survive. Not all of the 6 are available most of the time either. This doesn't include any other people that need critical care, at the same time,
from accidents and other medical issues.

 

[spclark]

So now's not the time to throw many people, particularly those over 60, under the bus.

Boy howdy, I (for one) am glad you said that!

Was 59-11/12’ths the last time I got shoved off the curb. Managed to roll out of the way in time....

I don’t move as fast now as I could then.

Hard enough having both feet firmly planted in the high risk group w/o forces beyond my control up-ending the floor I’m standing on.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

Without question the Wuhan Virus is worse than the seasonal flu and we need to take more precautions than normal, ...

Thirty-one posts ago in this thread you said this (emphasis mine):

As the global health community continues to gather and report data, the claim that “COVID-19 isn’t just like the flu” (though still severe) is looking less credible as fatality rates continue to decline and measuring of mild cases increases.[

 

[INTJ]

Thirty-one posts ago in this thread you said this (emphasis mine):

That was a quote I posted from an article and COVID-19 does look more like the seasonal flu than the disaster the alarmists were tying to sell us. We won't know for sure until we get to the other side.

BTW, I am not into Internet arguments. I am not motivated to engage Internet Experts--been there, done that.

Now if someone was interested in discussing various viewpoints with logic and reason; that might get me interested, but I am not holding my breath on this topic. I think people have let their emotions drive them to their viewpoints and they are more vested in having their viewpoint prevail than they are being accurate.

 

[SGK]

Let's see how this thing plays out. New York is (now) reacting appropriately. I can tell you that Miami is not.

I'm with the WHO guy: "speed beats perfection" every time when it comes to virus control.

 

[SGK]

This link can be opened three times. Interesting article about very high infection rates among Italy's front line medical staff:

https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/76dc62a6-596f-4efd-8a95-8f4a0825fa61

 

[SGK]

And another article overviewing various possible treatment strategies. This one the FT has made free to share:

https://www.ft.com/content/91bd081e-6e7b-11ea-9bca-bf503995cd6f?shareType=nongift

 

[SGK]

Boy howdy, I (for one) am glad you said that!

Was 59-11/12’ths the last time I got shoved off the curb. Managed to roll out of the way in time....

I don’t move as fast now as I could then.

Hard enough having both feet firmly planted in the high risk group w/o forces beyond my control up-ending the floor I’m standing on.

Unfortunately the debate between economic impact vs lives will only grow louder. The US (and other western countries) cannot possibly implement the sort of social distancing controls witnessed in that video. Current measures, weakly implemented and poorly enforced, are a play for time nothing more. Here's hoping trials of treatment medications are fruitful and that a vaccine isn't far behind.

 

[Coyotefurharvester]

Buying time now, because we sold out to globalization the last 3 decades. 97% of pharmaceuticals made somewhere not America, allowing intellectual theft, and the biggest allowing taxpayer funded schools to teach anything but the virtues of a constitutional republic.

 

[Toby Bradshaw]

... allowing taxpayer funded schools to teach anything but the virtues of a constitutional republic.

Hopefully the schools are still teaching logarithms. Many on this forum seem to have missed that lesson.

Today (tomorrow at the latest) the U.S will pass China in total number of COVID-19 cases, on our way to millions of cases by Easter (EDIT: assuming that testing can keep up with the increase).

 

[SGK]

Buying time now, because we sold out to globalization the last 3 decades. 97% of pharmaceuticals made somewhere not America, allowing intellectual theft, and the biggest allowing taxpayer funded schools to teach anything but the virtues of a constitutional republic.

"Globalisation" is one of those terms like "the media." An amorphous thing that people use as a scapegoat. It just means trade. Mankind has been trading for hundreds of thousands of years. Very very few people in this world make everything they need to exist themselves.

(PS: China is now granted more patents annually than the US. They now have more to gain from patent protection.)

 

[Rick300]

Buying time now, because we sold out to globalization the last 3 decades. 97% of pharmaceuticals made somewhere not America, allowing intellectual theft, and the biggest allowing taxpayer funded schools to teach anything but the virtues of a constitutional republic.

I hope the silver lining in all of this is that we bring a LOT of manufacturing back the the U.S.
As for the schools - I have been singing that song for decades. The Libs are a lot better at this game than the conservatives. They play the long game. They packed the courts, the media, and the schools. The kids growing up now simply don't know what the country was founded upon, what rights they have lost (or never had), or that capitalism isn't the boogeyman.

 

[Mark W]

"Globalisation" is one of those terms like "the media." An amorphous thing that people use as a scapegoat. It just means trade. Mankind has been trading for hundreds of thousands of years. Very very few people in this world make everything they need to exist themselves.

(PS: China is now granted more patents annually than the US. They now have more to gain from patent protection.)

IMO, there’s no denying the fact that we are disproportionately dependent on cheap goods from China and that in itself opens us up to some vulnerabilities.

The sad part is their goods wouldn’t be cheaper if they were forced to operate under the same environmental restrictions and gave workers the same protections.

I’m in the camp that hopes this opens some eyes and helps bring some manufacturing home.

 

[JimT]

Hopefully the schools are still teaching logarithms. Many on this forum seem to have missed that lesson.

Today (tomorrow at the latest) the U.S will pass China in total number of COVID-19 cases, on our way to millions of cases by Easter (EDIT: assuming that testing can keep up with the increase).


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Given those numbers I wonder how many ventilators are needed worldwide versus what is practically possible in terms of production? Seems like we should immediately start rationing their use. Instead, we are probably using them in the most hopeless cases first with the ones who could be saved dying unnecessarily.

 

[SGK]

The NHS in the UK estimates they need 60,000. They have access to 8,175. So that's a sense of demand from a major Western European country. At the other end of the scale, I now work for a small company which designs, builds and equips hospitals in Emerging Markets. We have an active contract in Bolivia. They have 35 ventilators for the entire country.

 

[JimT]

The NHS in the UK estimates they need 60,000. They have access to 8,175. So that's a sense of demand from a major Western European country. At the other end of the scale, I now work for a small company which designs, builds and equips hospitals in Emerging Markets. We have an active contract in Bolivia. They have 35 ventilators for the entire country.

We need to be more realistic. What is actually possible. Musk says he’s going to start manufacturing them, but does he actually have the capacity to fabricate parts and assemble them in a matter of days, weeks,months? Politicians screaming for ventilators that will be impossible to acquire does nothing to solve the problem of saving lives. Someone needs to step up and set protocols that will save those that stand a chance of living and let the rest go. Smoker, nope; obese, nope; over 80, nope, etc., etc.