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What Kind of Std.Dev. is 'Reasonable'

For my 5.56 load, my SDs are around 10 fps. Here is my process:
  • Decap
  • Clean brass (brass is fully prepped – primer pockets uniformed (swaged, chamfered, etc.) firing pin holes chamfered
  • I DO NOT ANNEAL – but do plan on starting on this but have not yet
  • Full length resize (w/ std. de-capping pin / neck expander) - Should I start using an expanding mandrel or collet die instead of regular die expander?
  • Bump shoulder back 2 mils
  • Clean brass again to get rid of lube
  • Check case length & trim only if at max. & then I trim by 0.010"
  • Seat Primers
  • Drop Powder - weigh every charge within 0.1 grain
  • Seat Bullets
Is a 10 fps SD reasonable? If I anneal & use a collet die, will my SD come down?
 
For my 5.56 load, my SDs are around 10 fps. Here is my process:
  • Decap
  • Clean brass (brass is fully prepped – primer pockets uniformed (swaged, chamfered, etc.) firing pin holes chamfered
  • I DO NOT ANNEAL – but do plan on starting on this but have not yet
  • Full length resize (w/ std. de-capping pin / neck expander) - Should I start using an expanding mandrel or collet die instead of regular die expander?
  • Bump shoulder back 2 mils
  • Clean brass again to get rid of lube
  • Check case length & trim only if at max. & then I trim by 0.010"
  • Seat Primers
  • Drop Powder - weigh every charge within 0.1 grain
  • Seat Bullets
Is a 10 fps SD reasonable? If I anneal & use a collet die, will my SD come down?

Using an expanding mandrel or collet die instead of your FL sizing die with expander ball will probably affect your group size (like smaller) more than it'll affect your SD's. That's what I noticed when I made that switch.

Annealing helped me a lot in reducing my SD's as well as helping with reducing group size. The annealing can give you more consistent neck tension AND grip on the bullet where the bullet is released with more consistency and that is what will help with SD's. For me, I'd say that annealing was second to the primary thing that got me to my goal of consistently getting SD's in the single digits (the primary thing being my powder charge weights being like +/- .03 grains from the target weight). And it didn't hurt having more consistent ignition by having primer pockets uniformed and primers set at a consistent depth <+/- .001" of each other.
 
Let me say I agree with the above advice... and back up a step or two at the same time...

An SD of 10 develops into an ES of 60 when enough shots are taken.

Which leads to my background questions. What rig are we discussing? An AR15 or a bolt gun for example? A light carry hunting rig intended for less than 500 yards, or a prone gun for 1000?

It helps to put your context and goals in the background in order for that SD of 10 to be put into perspective.

For example, a 10 SD in an AR platform is pretty good and would go far in many games. An SD of 10 will get you a start in some other games, but might not be competitive in the long run. All a perspective that answers your question of is a 10 SD good enough.... the answer around here is often "it depends"....


ETA: another perspective. In a typical 80 grain at 1000 yards sea level, in a pure linear velocity analysis the 10 SD turns into a vertical of roughly two feet.
 
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I dont get hung up on SD. I measure speed for trajectory, then tune seating depth, at 100 and 300 After that it's vertical at 500 to establish the load.
 
I dont pay much attention to SD or ES. In 1000 yard BR I found that the numbers don't show what the target is saying. In other words an ES of 2 to 3 fps can show 12 or more inches of vertical and a load of 10 to 15 ES can show 5 inches or less of vertical. I let the target tell me what it wants and test at the distance I am competing at. I would think if you could get your powder weighing a little better, it would help. To me .1 is alot. I aim for .01. Matt
 
An SD of 10 develops into an ES of 60 when enough shots are taken.

Which leads to my background questions. What rig are we discussing? An AR15 or a bolt gun for example? A light carry hunting rig intended for less than 500 yards, or a prone gun for 1000?

ETA: another perspective. In a typical 80 grain at 1000 yards sea level, in a pure linear velocity analysis the 10 SD turns into a vertical of roughly two feet.


ES of 60 for the +/- 3 SD which means 20 shots or so - you are correct.

I am doing some PRS shooting with a bolt 308 and a long range AR15. Shooting out to 1000 yards. Even with 75 grain bullets I am struggling with the vertical spread past 600 yards. The ELD-M do better for me than the BTHP because of the better BC, but nonetheless, vertical spread is a challenge.

My 5.56 load has a MV 2863, the bullet has a G7 of 0.235. An extreme spread of 60 results in a 16" vertical at 1000 yds., or 1.53 MOA of vertical dispersion. More than I would like to give up...
 
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Whether or not the velocity SD is good enough depends upon the width of the node, ie the vertical dispersion on the target. It's the combination of these two factors to address vs getting focused on just one or the other. The SD on my 223 isn't significantly better than yours but it scores well in fclass because my bullet, powder, charge combo node is optimized to be vertically insensitive.
 
Keeping small cartridges low is tough. With a .308 bolt gun, SDs in the high single digits are pretty easy to achieve without doing anything special or using high end reloading gear. I doubt you will be able to do better than 10 reliably wiht a .223 - 10 is quite good. Note that SDs are like group sizes - meaningless unless you shoot more than a few shots.

That said, if you run a ladder test at say, 600 yards, you'll find that the majority of the vertical movement is from tune, not velocity variation. SDs really aren't that important when you've got a good load worked up.
 
Way too much is made of standard deviation, especially when the data is based on small sample sizes and without an understanding how the statistics (based on the sample) apply to the probability of what can be expected to be known about a larger population. If your SD is for 10 or more shots, then you are loading fairly consistant ammunition. Whether the 10 SD is actually applicable to what you can expect in general is dependent to some extent on the number of rounds making up the sample.

If your SD is based on 3 shots then there is a 95% confidence that the true SD is between 5.2 and 65.8
If your SD is based on 5 shots then there is a 95% confidence that the true SD is between 6 and 28.7
If your SD is based on 10 shots then there is a 95% confidence that the true SD is between 6.9 and 18.3
If your SD is based on 20 shots then there is a 95% confidence that the true SD is between 7.6 and 14.6

Also, there are variables that affect the test results that are not typically monitored and corrected for. These include cartridge temperature, barrel temperature, chronograph accuracy, which affect the results at lower SDs.

A SD of ten would be nice. But the reality is that it is only one aspect of accuracy and may or may not be the significant veriable. I recently looked at an example of the 69 Gr Nosler CC at 800 yds with a velocity of 2800 FPS. A difference of 30 FPS (3xSD) in velocity about 0.85 MOA. The effects of a 1MPH error in wind estimation is about 1.1 MOA. AT 600 yds the drop difference is .5 MOA and the windage is .8 MOA. It is much more likely that errors in wind reading will cause a miss than a deviation in velocity.
 
Whether or not the velocity SD is good enough depends upon the width of the node, ie the vertical dispersion on the target. It's the combination of these two factors to address vs getting focused on just one or the other. The SD on my 223 isn't significantly better than yours but it scores well in fclass because my bullet, powder, charge combo node is optimized to be vertically insensitive.
@CharlieNC is spot on.

There are some things about external ballistics that are non-linear and the whole idea of tuning is meant to find those because they make such a big difference.

There are a significant number of accomplished shooters who do not know their velocity stats. Since many games allow sighters, they don't care about their velocity at all and focus only on their groups. You could not argue with their scores. They are not wrong or right, they are getting to the same goal a different way.

I will confess that I am in the other camp and have owned my own chronographs of all kinds since the 80's. I worked in weapon development at a company where we not only tracked ballistic velocity but tracked incoming as well.

I won't try and talk you into, or out of velocity stats. I think both velocity stats and group stats are very important and that in my world we were far more efficient at load development when knowing both.

You have to look hard at your case prep as well as selecting the recipe/charge/depth (tuning). They both have to be right to get into state of the art on the targets past 600 yards.

Here is where I may catch some flak from the forum....
It is just my opinion, but folks get performance at 1000 worked out with fewer rounds when tracking both groups and velocities. Especially when they are starting out from ground zero and no background with a particular gun and caliber. The very experienced, when working within the calibers and barrels they know well through many matches and worn barrels, can skip past much and get to their goals without velocity stats.

If you always test at distance, then group testing without velocity works fine. If you have to work at short range most of the time, then not every tight group at 100/200 will shoot tight at 1000, the difference being velocity stats. YMMV......

The 16" of vertical at 1000 yards is still better than the 24" of the Berger 80 doing 2650 SD10. The 16" is still 1.53 MOA at 1000 and since the F-Class folks tend to want X-Ring vertical or less, you have a ways to go.

I would take the above advice and check your tuning with the process you have now, and in parallel work on your prep and loading process to reduce the dispersion. We don't know if the rig wants a different speed or if it is doing the best it can now, but you will have to spend some time testing your tune and also working your process to find out. Good Luck!
 
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In F-TR, there are not many shooters using a .223 Rem at 1000 yd, especially ones that end up on the podium when the matches are finished. There are a couple reasons for this that include the much higher BCs of 200+ gr .308 Win bullets, as well as the issue about which you're inquiring. F-Class shooters often throw these ES/SD numbers around in various discussions, and almost by convention are usually referring to values obtained for 5-shot groups, just to be clear at the outset. There are a number of reasons for this, including the fact that shooters are not allowed to record muzzle velocity during the matches, and the fact that 5-shot velocity data is usually at hand from the load development process.

I have run .223 Rem bolt rifles in F-TR for many years. My competition loads during that time have always consisted of H4895, pointed Berger 90 VLDs, Fed 205 primers, and Lapua brass (un-turned necks). I've won a lot of matches shooting that combination, including the 2015 CA State Championship at 1000 yd. Acknowledging the obviously statistical limitations of 5-shot groups, what I can tell you is my very best loads will generally fall somewhere in the range of 15-20 fps ES, 5-8 SD. Average to mediocre statistical values would be more like 20-25 fps ES, 8-12 SD. Obviously, those numbers only get larger as the shot string length increases, but they are data of which I have the most, and am most familiar.

What I have found over the years is that everything matters in the small .223 Rem case, when it comes to obtaining the lowest possible ES/SD. Obviously, accurate and precise charge weight delivery is important. I weigh powder to approximately +/- half a kernel. That is certainly more than is necessary, but I can, so I do. I use high quality brass and I anneal my brass every firing. I weight sort a Lot# of brass into "Light", "Medium", and "Heavy" wight groups, because internal volume is generally inversely proportional to case weight, and there can be a readily detectable difference in velocity for the same charge weight between the very heaviest and very lightest cases within a Lot#. In fact, depending on the weight/internal volume variance of the brass, I have measured velocity variance for a given charge weight between Heavy/Light weight sorts (i.e. ES) to be as much as 20-30 fps. I often weight sort bullets, although I have to admit that weighing bullets, even on paper (theoretically), is probably not the greatest use of my time. As noted above, I also point bullets to get the highest possible BC.

The bottom line is that you can get away with a LOT using a non-optimal .223 Rem load at 600 yd that will kill your score at 1000 yd. In F-Class, the lower BC bullets combined with the increased ES/SD mean you may not only lose points (right/left) to missed wind calls at a higher rate than the .308 Win shooters using 200+ gr bullets, you will likely also lose some points "out the corners" of the circular 10-ring due to the increased vertical, even though your wind calls on those shots were acceptable. So anything you can do to tighten up your ES/SD numbers will be of benefit. I mentioned a few things I do above. You might also consider trying a higher BC bullet, although that may be difficult if you have to load to mag length. I assume from the BC you mentioned above you're using the 75 ELDMs. Nonetheless, there are longer/heavier/higher BC options available, if there is any way to make them work in your chosen discipline. You might also think about turning necks. I have not found it necessary to do so, but I know a few .223 Rem F-TR shooters that found it necessary to turn necks to get their ES/SD values down to acceptable levels. Another approach worth considering is to try a couple different primers. Sometimes that is all that is necessary to lower ES/SD. You did not mention the brand of brass you're using, but some brands are better than others. The Lapua name speaks for itself, but Lapua .223 Rem brass is pretty pricey. I have also had very good results with Norma .223 Rem brass, which is a lot less expensive. The Norma brass requires a bit more attention initially (i.e. uniforming flash holes), but the precision has been every bit as good as Lapua in my hands. Finally, I would strongly suggest you work annealing into your brass prep regimen sooner, rather than later. You can probably find lots of debate in online shooting forums over whether annealing brass really helps lower ES/SD. What I can tell you is that it certainly doesn't make the ES/SD values increase, so in your scenario it's probably better to get started annealing every firing sooner, rather than later. Many of these suggestions can be tested individually to assess whether they might be worth adding to your reloading regimen. You certainly don't need to attempt multiple potential "improvements" all at the same time, although ultimately those things you try that help will all be incorporated into a given brass prep. Just keep at it, even though attempting to reduce ES/SD with the .223 Rem might be tedious and frustrating, the effort will be worth it in the long run.
 

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