What is the probability of first shot hit a 30"x20" target at 1500 yards?

[Beiruty]

Sooo
Is this your target and you already shot before you asked the question ?

That is a predictive shot analysis simulation

 

[X Count]

The windage is the issue. Only 1.3moa to play with.

On a range with flags that I've shot at before and with a gun I know we'll I'd say first round hit 10% chance. If I could see the splash, second round hit 40%, third round hit 80%. If I can't hit it in 3 there is something happening I can't see so it's a dice roll

 

[dgeesaman]

My caliber will be a laser pointer and my first hit will be 100%.

 

[wbm]

1/2

 

[SG4247]

1 in 10

 

[JEFFPPC]

Well, until you said. 338 or smaller I was all in with a track mounted 4.2 inch mortar. 1500 meters is almost line of site for mortars.

Yea but blast radius does not count.

 

[JEFFPPC]

That is a predictive shot analysis simulation

Now I understand....typewriter shooting/testing.

 

[LVLAaron]

I still say turn the target sideways

Easier to turn the gun 90 degrees.

 

[moondog]

With my BR, 12.5%, With my 338Imp, 80%

 

[Rtheurer]

We used to do it all the time at the Farm. I have a 36" ROund Gong we shoot at. I shoot either a 6.5X47 L or a 7mm Rem Mag with 180gr Berger's.

The key was to catch the wind at a very low velocity or not at all. Right before sundown in the summer was a good time or early morning. Granted my 36" is bigger but with the new Kestrel and live ballistics updates on a combo that has been trued up. its amazing how much easier it is now than when you had to SWAG it. Having a sub 1/2MOA gun also helps.
I have NEVER made a 1800 yard first round impact however. And we have tried that many many times. 1200, 1400, 1600 was a lot more likley. All depends on the wind and Mirage.

 

[Bottom Fodder]

My 1 shot always hits something

 

[topclass2017]

if I'm the driving the bus, slim to none