What is the probability of first shot hit a 30"x20" target at 1500 yards?

[Beiruty]

What is the probability of first shot hit a 30"x20" target at 1500 yards?
You can select the rifle/caliber/bullet (338 or less)
Assume full force wind uncertainty is ±2mph.

 

[Rocketvapor]

Target sideways?
What is the 2mph windage with your choice of caliber?

 

[Coyotefurharvester]

What actual previous shooting data is available?

 

[Beiruty]

Example:
Target is 30" Tall, 20" width
Wind is +- 2mph than actual, say wind call is 5mph from 90, actual is 3-7mph from 90
Bullet is 109gr Berger LRHT
MV is 3185fps
Shooting prone or off a bench with bipod and rear bag
Assume the rifle is 0.6 MOA capable

What is the first shot hit probability at 1500 yards?

 

[Coyotefurharvester]

Have you actually shot it at 1000,1200 yards? When does velocity drop sub s?

 

[Beiruty]

Have you actually shot it at 1000,1200 yards? When does velocity drop sub s?

Yes, I shot it to 1270 with confirmed hits

 

[afrench]

7.

 

[6MMsteve]

if the wind is not bad maybe 2nd shot, maybe 1st shot might be 10 shots, depends on how my calculator is working between my ears..uno depends maybe

 

[Beiruty]

 

[Bill K]

From what you have given as to your present info and how you are on at the 1200 X mark/target. I would say your first shot would be about 5% that you would hit. Try it and lets us know.

 

[Nick Caprinolo]

Never happen

 

[Ken]

Depends on how good of a shot you are.

 

[Kevin Taylor]

Well, until you said. 338 or smaller I was all in with a track mounted 4.2 inch mortar. 1500 meters is almost line of site for mortars.

 

[Coyotefurharvester]

Your chart is off 100 fps at the muzzle, was this to compensate for less drop than expected at 1270. Still a chance if you shoot, even a blind squirrel finds a nut. LOL.

 

[Rocketvapor]

I still say turn the target sideways

 

[xswanted]

For me personally using my own rifle that I have plenty of data with…..

1/3 of the time I’ll hit it, in all reality.

1200 and in is a lot higher percentage.

 

[Beiruty]

1077 yards, first shot, first hit Howa 1500, 6mm CrdM, handload

 

[Beiruty]

Best practice, is when you shoot when it is windy and you spot for yourself
Up to 866 yards and windy, again 6mm CrdM

 

[Beiruty]

Your chart is off 100 fps at the muzzle, was this to compensate for less drop than expected at 1270. Still a chance if you shoot, even a blind squirrel finds a nut. LOL.

I just opened a GRTtools sim to quickly compute the trajectory.

 

[JFrank]

View attachment 1373663

Sooo
Is this your target and you already shot before you asked the question ?